What Can We Expect from the Baltimore Ravens This Postseason?
The Baltimore Ravens shook off a flat, unmotivated first half to come away with a Week 17 victory over the Cleveland Browns. The 20-10 win, in concert with a San Diego Chargers loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, means that the Ravens are the AFC's No. 6 seed in the playoffs, which begin next weekend.
The Ravens join the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs and will face one of those AFC North rivals in the Wild Card Round. But the Super Bowl is the Ravens' ultimate goal—and a familiar one at that, as the team won it all just two seasons ago.
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For the Ravens to get there, however, they will need to be more consistent. While inconsistency has not been a season-long problem for Baltimore, it has been an issue in its last two games. The Ravens cannot start out flat next week against the Steelers or Bengals, as they did Sunday against Cleveland.
Baltimore had just 126 yards of offense in the first half against the Browns and averaged 3.7 yards per play. The second half, however, was more fruitful. Of Baltimore's 20 points, 17 were scored in the fourth quarter. Receivers Torrey Smith and Steve Smith Sr. each eclipsed 80 yards, while running back Justin Forsett ended the day with 119 yards on his 17 carries.
The Ravens of the playoffs should be more like the Ravens of November rather than the Ravens of the last two weeks.
The offensive line should get left tackle Eugene Monroe back, ending the shuffling that began in Week 16 after both he and right tackle Rick Wagner went down with injuries. The defensive line will get Haloti Ngata back from his four-game suspension, and it couldn't have happened at a better time. His replacement, rookie Timmy Jernigan, left Sunday's game with a leg injury, forcing Casey Walker into the lineup.
What the Ravens need to do to make a deep postseason run is control the pace of the game. The defensive front seven will continue to bring pressure—it had four sacks Sunday, bringing the defense's total on the season to 49. At the same time, the heart of the offense will be the running game behind Forsett.
Controlling the clock is not just a smart way to keep the rival offenses of Pittsburgh and Cincinnati off the field, but also a way to limit heavy hitters like Tom Brady's New England Patriots and Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos. It also takes pressure away from Baltimore's secondary, which is easily the team's biggest weakness this season.
Forsett has been the Ravens' not-so-secret weapon in 2014, totaling 1,266 yards on 235 carries. He's had five games with over 100 yards rushing and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, though he's never had more than 24 carries in a game.
Getting the ground game going will be vital for the Ravens in the postseason. While Joe Flacco is having the best season of his career in terms of yards and touchdowns, he came into Sunday's game suffering from the third-most dropped passes, a total of 33, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Unless Flacco and the Ravens passing game morphs into its 2012 playoff form, in which Flacco threw 11 touchdowns against zero interceptions, then he cannot be solely responsible for the offense scoring points.
Just as Forsett can take pressure off of Flacco, so can Baltimore's defense. Currently, it ranks ninth in yards per game allowed, fourth in rushing yards allowed, 27th in passing yards allowed and, crucially, seventh in points per game allowed. It bends, but does not break—and even when it does bend, it's not by much.
As noted earlier, it's all about the Ravens' defensive front making the secondary's job easier. That front seven can put serious pressure on quarterbacks—linebacker Elvis Dumervil racked up 18.0 sacks this season, Terrell Suggs 12.0 and Pernell McPhee 7.5. It also boasts prodigious run-stuffing ability, holding opponents to under 100 rushing yards 11 times this season.
There shouldn't be many differences between the Ravens' postseason strategy and what got them to 10 wins and a playoff berth in the regular season.
| 1. | New England Patriots | 12-4 |
| 2. | Denver Broncos* | 11-4 |
| 3. | Cincinnati Bengals** | 10-4-1 |
| 4. | Indianapolis Colts | 11-5 |
| 5. | Pittsburgh Steelers** | 10-5 |
| 6. | Baltimore Ravens | 10-6 |
Forsett will continue to be the team's primary running back and should have some success. Flacco will continue to protect the football. Smith and Smith Sr. will probably drop a few passes, but those missteps can be cleaned up—Forsett and tight end Owen Daniels, in particular, have been doing so all season long.
The defensive front seven will bring pressure, stop the run and keep the secondary from having to shoulder too much of the burden of stopping opposing passing games, just as it has all season thus far.
The Ravens have a formula that works. It might not be the most finely tuned or explosive formula, but it is a winning one. The Ravens, it's worth noting, have had a steadier season than the one that saw them win the Super Bowl.
Whether that is enough to get them back to the championship game remains to be seen. The playoffs, especially on the road, are an unforgiving place. But the Ravens have veterans who know what it takes to make a deep postseason run. They don't really need to change a thing to be true Super Bowl contenders.
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