It's Time to Start Worrying About Peyton Manning and the Shaky Broncos

Peyton Manning isn't the same thrower he used to be. He isn't going to rewrite NFL record books again in 2014. The Denver Broncos offense isn't as shut-your-mouth dominant. The Broncos are relying more on the running game and defense to make plays, and that's just fine.

This was the narrative coming into Week 16's Monday Night Football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, where quarterback Andy Dalton's notoriously poor prime-time track record figured to play heavily in the proceedings.

Instead, Manning imploded in a 37-28 loss.

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His four interceptions were the most he's thrown in one game with the Broncos. They were more than he threw in the first seven games of this season. Denver had every opportunity to win this game, but Manning's mistakes took those chances away.

For perhaps the first time since he joined Denver, the Broncos lost a big game solely because of Manning.

In the postgame press conference broadcast on ESPN, head coach John Fox declined to pin the loss on any particular player. "I'm not going to get into evaluations in front of the media," he said. "The Denver Broncos didn't play well enough to win tonight."

That may well be true, but that's a big, big problem. For much of the season, the Broncos were the clear-cut No. 1 team in football. This loss snapped a four-game win streak, so it's not like the team is in a tailspin. Yet, Denver is clearly slowing down at the worst possible time.

The Broncos outscored opponents by an average of 10.38 points per game in the first half of the season. Their average per-game scoring differential in the second half of the season is 5.2.

At the beginning of the game, it was all going according to script.

Dalton and the Bengals opened with a three-and-out, and on their second possession threw a pick-six to cornerback Aqib Talib. Boom, 7-0 Broncos, and the rout was on. Right?

Wrong.

On the very next play, running back Jeremy Hill broke off an 85-yard touchdown run, leveling the score. Cincinnati went on to score another touchdown and two field goals before halftime, running up a 20-7 lead.

The Bengals defense used plenty of zone blitzes, bluffed blitzes, secondary blitzes, stacks and overloads. They made Manning uncomfortable early and often, and it led to incompletions (he was 28-of-44), pressures (sacked twice, though he seemed constantly on the run)...and picks.

As time expired in the first half, Denver kicker Connor Barth missed a 49-yarder. In the third quarter, though, it felt like order had been restored.

Broncos tailback C.J. Anderson took advantage of a big return on the second-half kickoff, capping a short drive with a one-yard touchdown run. Manning connected with Emmanuel Sanders for two touchdowns, including a spectacular one-handed grab:

After the second Sanders score, the Broncos had recaptured the lead, 28-27. Dalton and the Bengals went three-and-out on the subsequent drive, and it seemed like Manning had weathered the storm.

His next pass was picked off by cornerback Adam Jones, who'd had a huge kickoff return earlier in the game.

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The two teams traded three-and-outs before the Bengals took the lead with a chip-shot field goal.

The rain, which had already been pouring in earnest, grew more intense throughout the fourth quarter. Both offenses had trouble moving the ball, but at least Cincinnati was scoring. Manning and the Broncos weren't just stuck in neutral, they were going backward.

On Denver's final two drives, cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick picked Manning off twice; the first one was taken all the way back to the house. The second ended the game:

As much as we'd like to pretend there's a simple explanation for these mistakes, they weren't forced by Manning's arm strength, or lack thereof. They were largely mental lapses.

"I made some bad throws," Manning told reporters after the game. He admitted he'd thrown it to the wrong receiver on at least one of those interceptions.

Manning, at age 38, doesn't have the same deep ball he had at 28—nor can he put the same old zip on many of the shorter routes. Mentally, though, his game has been airtight. Nobody prepares more fanatically than Manning, and typically no one is better under pressure.

Instead, Manning was unsettled and shaky from the word go. He threw to covered receivers, missed open targets and sank the Broncos' chances of clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

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"You play a good football team this time of year," Fox said in his postgame press conference, "you gotta play better."

Even after all this, Manning and the Broncos still had the ball with 81 yards to go, over four minutes left to play and were down by only two points. That's the kind of drive Manning normally aces. Instead, Kirkpatrick said "deuces."

The Broncos had other problems exposed during the game. Their pass protection was exceptionally creaky and certainly didn't help Manning get into a rhythm. Injuries to starting linebackers Danny Trevathan and Brandon Marshall pressed some unready players into service.

That showed all night long, as the Bengals' two talented backs slashed into the second level of the Broncos defense on screens and shallow crossing routes. The 'backers also struggled to cover tight end Jermaine Gresham; he caught nine passes for 62 yards and a score.

Denver may have another hole in the back seven opening up: Per Troy E. Renck of The Denver Post, playmaking safety T.J. Ward is being evaluated for a neck injury he suffered against the Bengals.

Despite all that, the Broncos can still lock up a first-round bye in Week 17 by defeating the 3-12 Oakland Raiders. As long as they don't sleepwalk through that matchup, Manning and Denver will only need to win one game to get a chance to defend the AFC title.

If Manning doesn't play a lot better than he did against Cincinnati, though, the Broncos aren't beating anyone in the playoffs.