Peyton Manning Must Show He Can Back off Defenses Again Before Playoffs

The Denver Broncos reinvented their offense this season from one that relied heavily on quarterback Peyton Manning’s arm to one that leans equally on his arm and the legs of running back C.J. Anderson. Although the Broncos have been successful since the change, there’s also something unsettling about it.

Manning hasn’t shown he can shred a defense with his arm in weeks—a skill that will come in handy in the playoffs. Defenses are also slowly starting to bring an extra defender into the box to stop the run, and Manning isn’t taking advantage of it.

At first, it was a great thing that the Broncos could win by running the ball. Running showed that Manning wouldn’t have to carry the load in the playoffs if the Broncos ran into a great pass defense or nasty weather.

It’s clear the team wants to take some of the burden off Manning’s body. It’s starting to seem like running is a necessary thing and not just a bonus.

Mike Klis of The Denver Post even thinks the Broncos need to start monitoring Anderson’s workload. According to him, Anderson’s average of 27.25 attempts over the past four games is two or three carries too high. He doesn’t mention where those carries would go, but they should be Manning pass attempts.

B/R (Data via Pro-Football-Reference.com

A thigh injury that knocked Manning out for a series last week and caused him to miss some practice this week may enhance the focus on the running game. The Cincinnati Bengals, the Broncos’ Week 16 opponent, are also likely to keep Manning from giving his arm a jump-start since they are tied for the league lead in touchdowns allowed and are top five in yards per attempt allowed.

It’s also reasonable to wonder if the thigh injury is the only thing limiting Manning based on the way the offense has changed over the past month. That’s why it would be nice if he gives us the all-clear sign with a big performance before we get to the postseason and these types of narratives ratchet up a notch or 10.

Since Week 9, Manning has thrown eight interceptions on 264 pass attempts. That’s an interception percentage of 3.0, which he hasn’t hit over a seven-game span as a member of the Broncos. The last time Manning’s interception percentage over seven games was above 3 percent was when he was playing through his neck injury in 2010.

Split	TD%	INT%	YPA
First 7	8.7%	1.2%	8.5
Last 7	5.7%	3.0%	7.6
As Bronco	7.3%	1.8%	8.1

Manning’s 5.7 percent touchdown percentage over the last seven games is slightly above his career average but 1.6 percent lower than his average as a member of the Broncos. Manning has averaged 8.1 yards per attempt since joining the Broncos, but he has hit that mark just twice over the last seven weeks, and both times he did, he threw just 20 passes.

Here’s an example of Manning sticking with the run despite having man-to-man coverage on the outside and one fewer blocker than defender in the box. The Buffalo Bills had eight men in the box on first down anticipating a running play down 21-3.

NFL GameRewind

Manning sticks with the run despite the loaded box, and Anderson predictably gets no yards. Even with better blocking, Anderson had no chance of gaining more than maybe one or two yards with the extra defender there to nix a play.

NFL Game Rewind

On the next play, the Broncos threw a quick screen to wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, and he picked up nine yards against a loaded box. Manning has the weapons to burn even the best defenses in the league when they try to bring an extra defender down, but he’s not taking every opportunity to do so.

NFL GameRewind

When Manning passes on these opportunities, he’s actually hurting the team because Anderson isn’t averaging many yards on those plays. Over the last two weeks, Anderson has carried the ball 50 times for 143 yards. That’s just 2.86 yards per carry. If the Bills or Chargers could do anything offensively in those games, the Broncos wouldn’t have been able to get away with a run-heavy game plan.

In the playoffs, the Broncos are going to run into teams that can move the ball on their defense and score points. When they do, Manning must take advantage of whatever the defense gives to him. The Broncos have proved they can run the ball. Now it’s time to take what the opposing defense is giving them, be it run or pass.

If the defense loads the box, it should be prime pickings for Manning, but he’s been passing on those opportunities in recent weeks. That’s slightly concerning, and it would be nice to see him sling the ball around the yard a little bit to get defenses to back off again before the postseason.

It could be that the coaching staff has made the decision to be more conservative to protect Manning behind a shuffled offensive line. If that’s the case, it didn’t work. Manning suffered a thigh injury in a game in which Anderson had 29 carries, and the running backs as a group had 34.

The switch to a balanced attack wasn’t a bad move, nor is there any reason to be concerned yet, but it’s about time to give Manning’s arm a tuneup so he’s ready for the New England Patriots and other good teams that the Broncos will face in the playoffs.