Andrew Luck's Inconsistent Play Holding Him Back from Reaching True Potential
Andrew Luck has been recognized as an exceptional talent for as long as he has been playing quarterback.
The former Stanford player became the first overall pick of the Indianapolis Colts in 2012, succeeding future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning. Luck wasn't simply replacing a retired Manning; the Colts released the Super Bowl-winning, aging quarterback in favor of building their franchise around Luck.
By any measure, that decision has proved to be a very good one.
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Luck himself has put up phenomenal numbers for a player who has started at the most difficult position from Day 1, while the Colts have now won two AFC South titles and will make their third successive appearance in the playoffs at the end of this season.
The combination of physical gifts and mental acumen Luck displayed in college was comparable to the greatest quarterback prospects throughout history. However, that would mean nothing if Luck couldn't live up to his exceptionally high expectations once he stepped onto an NFL field.
Luck has surpassed expectations by enjoying a record-setting start to his career, but the scariest part of his play is that he can still get better.
Many of Luck's struggles in the NFL, of which there have been relatively few, are a result of the porous offensive line and complete absence of consistency from the running game that shares the field with him. Even more can be shrugged off based on how much he must compensate for an inconsistent and often extremely ineffective defense.
The 25-year-old quarterback has 12 fumbles and 14 interceptions this season. While his production largely overshadows his turnovers, those numbers are still significant. Luck is tied for third in interceptions thrown this year, and 12 fumbles in 14 games is obviously a huge number.
Luck's turnovers have been regularly evident throughout the season, but the number has spiked at times.
During the first four weeks of the season, when the Colts were 2-2, Luck had just four total turnovers. Each turnover was an interception. In the following four weeks, he compiled seven total turnovers with two lost fumbles and five interceptions. Luck had just a two-game reprieve that resulted in one interception before he began his current stretch of inconsistency.
Over the past four games, Luck has lost four fumbles and thrown four interceptions. Not all of the turnovers have been his fault, but they do reflect the overall erraticism in his play.
A recurring issue for Luck a few weeks back was his severe lack of ball security when in the grasp of a defender behind the line of scrimmage. This first became apparent against the Jacksonville Jaguars, when he lost two fumbles in the first quarter. One of those fumbles was understandable, but the other was all on the quarterback.
On 3rd-and-8, the Jaguars sent a blitz after Luck. Luck was obviously thinking about getting the first down, but he missed an open receiver in the flat when he turned away from the pressure and looked to run out of the pocket.
His open receiver wasn't a guaranteed first down, but he would have had a chance with yards after the catch because the defensive backs closest to him were running with their receivers downfield.
After turning to run out of the pocket, Luck was met by an edge defender before he could escape the pocket. Because Luck was trying to get outside of him to extend the play, he didn't protect the ball properly when it was obvious that he was going to be hit.
Even if he was still trying to break the tackle to continue into the flat, he shouldn't have been holding the ball away from his body in the manner that he was.
Two weeks later, against the Cleveland Browns, Luck found himself in a similar situation.
Although it was 3rd-and-10, Luck wasn't under pressure to make a play in this instance because it was still the first quarter and he was backed up against his own goal line. Luck was hit in the pocket after holding the ball for a moment.
He wasn't in the end zone, so he didn't need to be concerned about a safety. But he still attempted to throw the ball away.
As Luck extended the ball away from his body, another defender knocked the ball out from behind. The Browns were able to recover the fumble in the end zone for a touchdown. The quarterback's decision made no sense and should be classified as inexcusable.
Later on in this game, Luck exhibited a trait that he regularly repeats. Luck has thrown a lot of interceptions this season, but the bigger issue than the number is how poor some of them have been.
In the third quarter, the Browns were leading by a score of 14-7. Luck and the Colts offense were facing a 2nd-and-10 on their own 12-yard line. As much as the Colts wanted to erase the deficit, Luck had to understand the circumstances here and not force any passes he was unsure of.
He may have understood that, but the Browns defense was still able to confuse him.
The Browns got decent pressure up front because of their blitz. Luck stood in the pocket and stared down one of his receivers to the right side. He had a chance to step up into space and away from the pressure, but he held the ball before delivering it downfield instead.
The quick pressure allowed rookie cornerback Justin Gilbert to be aggressive from the outside.
Gilbert had initially been covering the Colts' outside receiver, but with the blitz and the deep safety coming across the field, he was able to jump inside and undercut Luck's pass. He caught the ball comfortably before running it back for a touchdown.
Luck eventually pulled out the late victory against the Browns, despite frequently struggling throughout the game.
His inconsistency carried over into the start of this week's decisive game against the Houston Texans. The Colts overcame the Texans, 17-10, but Luck only threw for 187 yards while completing 52.9 percent of his passes.
He wasn't helped by his supporting cast, and the Colts did put a stranglehold on the game after the first quarter. But Luck's early play was still cause for concern.
On the very first play of the game for the Colts offense, Luck missed a wide-open Dwayne Allen on a deep crossing route. That play would have immediately set the offense up close to midfield, but the quarterback simply missed the throw.
Luck couldn't blame his offensive line or receivers because he was under no pressure in the pocket and had his tight end wide open downfield.
Offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton followed that play with the usual sacrificial two-yard run that set up a 3rd-and-long for Luck and the passing game. On that 3rd-and-8, Luck stepped up in the pocket and away from pressure before finding Coby Fleener at the first-down marker.
Fleener dropped the ball, forcing the offense to punt it away to the Texans from deep in its own territory.
The Texans quickly gave the ball back to the Colts quarterback. He appeared to be warming up as he found T.Y. Hilton on two downfield completions, but he missed a potential first down on a 3rd-and-4 close to midfield.
With J.J. Watt on the field, the Texans felt comfortable rushing Luck with just three defenders while dropping seven players into coverage. Against this play design, Luck understands that he needs to hold the ball in the pocket to either manipulate the coverage or give his receivers time to break free.
Having already surveyed the field from left to right without being put under pressure, Luck stared down the left sideline.
Luck's eyes influenced the underneath coverage, leaving one of his targets open close to the first-down marker. It may have turned into a risky throw if Luck hadn't executed his movement in the pocket quickly, but he should have understood the proper progressions before locating that option.
Instead of finding that receiver, Luck's eyes worked their way back to the other side of the field.
He threw an incompletion on a deep comeback route that was tightly covered by a defensive back. Luck's pass didn't even give his target a chance to make a contested catch, as it landed comfortably out of bounds.
Fortunately for Luck, the Texans repeatedly failed to take advantage of his offense's futility.
Eventually, Luck would throw another interception. Not only would it be another interception, but it would be another interception that led directly to points for the other team. However, this play didn't actually reflect Luck's inconsistency.
Instead, it highlighted his unreliable supporting cast.
Because the Texans offense moved the ball, the Colts were backed up inside their own 20-yard line. On a 3rd-and-9 play, the Texans were showing a heavy blitz before the snap. Fleener was uncovered in the left slot, so Luck knew that he would either be matched up against a linebacker or a safety.
This is where his eyes went immediately at the snap.
As the play commenced, the Texans dropped three of their six players at the line of scrimmage. This means that the defense is once again only sending three players in pursuit of the quarterback. Luck immediately looked at Fleener, who still had a free release from the line of scrimmage.
Fleener ran an in route into space behind the dropping defenders. Luck recognized this and knew he had a chance to get him the football.
Instead of completing the pass to Fleener, Luck threw an interception to Texans safety Kendrick Lewis. Luck initially appeared to simply miss Fleener as a result of the Texans' blitz threat, but instead, it looks as if there was miscommunication between the quarterback and his tight end.
Fleener would have been wide open if he had sat down in space against the Texans' zone coverage.
Luck actually made the right read, but Fleener kept moving so that he ran right into one of the other dropping defenders. Fleener showed no awareness of how to counter zone coverage on this play, and that is what led to Lewis' pick-six.
On the following drive, Luck slightly overthrew Donte Moncrief on a play that could have gone for an 81-yard touchdown.
After that play, Luck's intensity and effectiveness skyrocketed. He finally erased the Colts' zero on the scoreboard with a touchdown pass to Hakeem Nicks on the very first play of the second quarter. Luck completed 6-of-6 passes on that drive for 74 yards and a touchdown.
Only a fool would suggest that Luck isn't one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL right now. For a third-year quarterback, that is a phenomenal feat.
However, it should also be noted that Luck isn't completely playing to the potential of his skill set. The number of turnovers he has generated this season is a testament to that. He is still a developing player, even in his third season.
As much as Luck has accelerated the process of his acclimation to the NFL, he still has some work to do. It is fair to wonder if Luck's responsibilities within the offense have caused him to develop these inconsistencies.
Constantly playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league while being burdened with so much responsibility can have a negative effect on any signal-caller. Luck's teammates aren't protecting him the way Andy Dalton's or Colin Kaepernick's have in their young careers.
From his first day in the NFL, Luck has had one of the toughest roles of any player competing at this level. That is undoubtedly going to lead to inconsistent play and some bad habits.
The question is, how long will this careless type of play continue to exist?
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