Texans vs. Colts: Complete Week 15 Preview for Indianapolis

The Indianapolis Colts are looking to secure the AFC South title once again this week, but the Houston Texans will be trying to keep their playoff hopes alive.

At 9-4, the Colts continue to pick up wins and hold a two-game lead over the Texans in the division. With a win on Sunday, the Colts can officially clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year.

But the Texans can't be ignored. They may only be 7-6, but they have a number of talented players on both sides of the ball, including a potential MVP candidate in J.J. Watt. Colts head coach Chuck Pagano talked about Watt's impact on both sides of the ball, telling Mike Wells of ESPN.com:

"

We've seen, obviously, some great ones through the years. This guy is phenomenal football player, best at his position right now. This guy has impacted the game as much as anybody, especially at his position. He's catching [touchdown] passes, lining him up in goal-line and short-yardage situations. He looks like [New England tight end Rob] Gronkowski out there running around.

"

Watt won't be the only player the Colts have to keep an eye on, but he's definitely the most important considering how disruptive he can be when rushing the passer. Andrew Luck will likely be under duress for much of the game, so the Colts will need to do a few things to get win No. 10.

Having said that, here's a complete preview of the Colts' Week 15 matchup.

Colts Week 14 Recap

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In what was arguably the ugliest game of the season for the Colts, they somehow pulled out a win in Week 14, getting a late 25-24 victory over the Cleveland Browns.

Things got off to a slow start for both offenses, with the only scoring in the first quarter coming near the end when Luck was sacked and the ball was stripped for a defensive touchdown from Craig Robertson. Fortunately for Indianapolis, the defense continued to hold thanks to some inaccurate throws from Brian Hoyer, who prevented Cleveland from consistently driving down the field.

Despite trailing just 14-7 at halftime, the Colts dug themselves an even bigger hole to start the third quarter when Luck threw an interception to rookie Justin Gilbert, who took it all the way back for the Browns' second defensive touchdown of the game to go up 21-7.

T.Y. Hilton had just one catch in the first half and fumbled on the opening drive of the second, but then he came alive against Joe Haden. The third-year receiver started to get more and more open, and then he provided a spark with an impressive 42-yard touchdown to pull the Colts to within just five points at 21-16.

Luck had one last drive to give the Colts the lead near the end of the game, and he did exactly that, driving his team 90 yards down the field in just over three minutes. The drive ended with a game-winning touchdown to Hilton with 32 seconds left, but the play of the game came from Daniel Herron.

With the Colts facing 4th-and-1 near the goal line, Herron stayed up and gave a great second effort, spinning to get past the first-down marker. Just after that, Luck hit Hilton on the one-yard score. Hoyer couldn't drive Cleveland down the field, throwing an interception to Josh Gordy to seal the win. Hilton was easily the player of the game, finishing with 150 yards and two touchdowns on 10 receptions.

It wasn't pretty, but the Colts got another big win.

News and Notes

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Colts Are Focusing on Eliminating Turnovers

Fumbles and turnovers have been serious issues for the Colts this season, keeping opponents in more games than they would like this year. The Colts have fumbled 13 times over the past three games, and Luck has been a big reason for that, refusing to give up on some plays where he should just accept defeat and take a sack.

"There are a lot of times you say, 'No, no, no, oh great, nice job," Pagano told Curt Cavin from the Indianapolis Star regarding Luck's determination. "But that's the competitive nature of that player, and we've got a lot of them like that."

Luck already has 28 fumbles and 40 interceptions in his career, and while some of that is on the play of the offensive line over the years, the third-year quarterback has made some bad decisions from time to time. However, he isn't the only one turning the ball over, and the Colts as a whole need to cut down on giveaways if they're going to make a deep run in the postseason.

Reggie Wayne Playing Through Torn Triceps

At 36 years old, Reggie Wayne has already put up a potential Hall of Fame resume, but in what could be his final season, he's been seriously struggling. Last week, he dropped pass after pass, catching just one for five yards despite being targeted eight times.

Wayne hasn't looked the same this year since injuring his elbow against the Cincinnati Bengals earlier in the season. According to Mike Wells, one of the reasons for Wayne's struggles is that he's been playing through a torn triceps as well as some other injuries.

"I basically told myself, 'You're doing everything you possibly can to throw this game,'" Wayne told Wells. "Thankfully my teammates were able to have my back. ...You have to have amnesia. That's the way it goes. They happen like that sometimes. You have to put it behind you and keep going. Be thankful you have next week." 

At this point, it looks like this may be Wayne's final season, especially with the emergence of Hilton and even rookie Donte Moncrief. He might go out on a low note, but Colts fans will remember Wayne as one of the greatest receivers to ever play in Indianapolis next to the likes of Bill Brooks and Marvin Harrison.

Khaled Holmes Possibly Playing at Right Guard?

The offensive line situation was interesting to watch last Sunday. The Colts seriously struggled protecting Luck with Jonotthan Harrison and Joe Reitz in the game, but once A.Q. Shipley and Khaled Holmes replaced them, Luck started to have more time in the pocket.

It was especially intriguing to finally see Holmes get some playing time. While usually a center, he played well at right guard, and since Hugh Thornton and Reitz are unlikely to play on Sunday, there's a chance we'll see the second-year lineman get another shot at the position.

However, Pagano has yet to reveal who will start. Mike Chappell from RTV6 tweeted that when asked about Holmes playing right guard, the Colts head coach only responded with "could be."

Changes are needed on the offensive line, especially at center through right tackle. The Colts may still be sticking with Harrison at center, but we'll see if Holmes gets a chance to continue proving himself at right guard with Thornton out again this week.

Injury Report

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Player	Position	Injury Status
Mike Adams	S	Full
Sergio Brown	S	DNP
Darius Butler	CB	DNP
Vontae Davis	CB	Full
D'Qwell Jackson	ILB	Full
LaRon Landry	S	DNP
Xavier Nixon	OT	Full
Joe Reitz	OG	DNP
Andy Studebaker	OLB	Full
Hugh Thornton	OG	DNP
Erik Walden	OLB	Limited

Note: All injuries are from Thursday's practice via Colts.com.

The biggest concern on the injury front is the status of Vontae Davis, who has been the team's best defensive player this season. He missed last week due to a concussion, but after being a full participant in practice Thursday and Friday, he should be good to go. That will be a big help in the secondary, especially with all of the injuries already present.

All three safeties who get significant playing time were on the injury report this week. Sergio Brown and LaRon Landry were dealing with an illness all week, but both participated on Friday. Mike Adams has been practicing since Thursday, so it looks like they all should be ready for Sunday.

As usual, there are concerns about the health of the offensive line. Hugh Thornton may not play again, and with Joe Reitz also out, Khaled Holmes may be taking over at right guard again this week. He played well last week against Cleveland, so hopefully he can keep it up. 

X-Factor and Matchups to Watch

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Colts Offensive Line vs. J.J. Watt

J.J. Watt is the first guy on the Texans that any opposing team should plan for, as the dominant defensive lineman has been the clear choice for this year's Defensive Player of the Year award while also making some noise in the MVP race.

For the Colts, Watt presents a huge mismatch. H has 14.5 sacks, three forced fumbles, one interception and nine pass deflections, and few have had an answer for Watt. It will be even harder for the Colts offensive line, which has allowed Luck to be hurried on 119 dropbacks this year, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Watt will likely be moving around the line on Sunday, so it will take a group effort from the offensive line to try and contain him.

T.Y. Hilton vs. Texans Secondary

Hilton is emerging as a serious Pro Bowl candidate this season, and another big game against the Texans could help solidify his spot among the NFL's best wide receivers in 2014.

The Texans have yet to find a way to contain Hilton in all of their previous meetings against him and Luck. In five career games against Houston, Hilton has gone off for 611 yards and six touchdowns on just 31 receptions, averaging 19.7 yards per catch. Earlier this year, he caught nine passes for 223 yards and a touchdown while playing in Houston.

Since the Texans haven't found a way to slow Hilton down yet, expect Luck to go deep for him at least a couple of times during this game, especially after the work he put in last week against a solid cornerback in Joe Haden.

Greg Manusky vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick

Although he won't be physically on the field, Colts defensive coordinator Greg Manusky is going to be key once again in shutting down the opposing quarterback. This week, it will be Ryan Fitzpatrick, and that means that Manusky won't be afraid to bring the pressure.

The Colts defense has had plenty of success when going against weaker quarterbacks who struggle under pressure. Manusky has done a great job of drawing up blitz schemes to put pressure on opposing QBs. The Colts rank tied for seventh in the league with 35 sacks despite not having Robert Mathis this entire season.

Fitzpatrick has been decent this year, but like most non-elite quarterbacks, he struggles under pressure. When under duress, his numbers drop significantly, with his passer rating going from 110.7 in a clean pocket to just 66.1 when under pressure, per PFF.

As long as Manusky can keep drawing up creative blitzes, Fitzpatrick should have some pressure in his face throughout the game.

Colts' X-Factor of the Week: Dwayne Allen

He didn't do much last week, but with Dwayne Allen back from an ankle injury, the Colts will need him in both the passing and running games.

Allen is actually one of the team's best run-blockers, helping open up rushing lanes for both Trent Richardson and Daniel Herron. Coby Fleener and Jack Doyle can't block as well as Allen, as he allows the Colts to get more creative with their personnel.

Along with run blocking, Allen has emerged as a serious red-zone threat this year, putting up seven touchdowns and 379 yards on 27 receptions. With their other red-zone threat in Ahmad Bradshaw out for the year, expect Luck to throw Allen's way if the Colts get deep into opposing territory on Sunday.

Prediction

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The Colts have gone 4-1 against the Texans since Luck took over as the starting quarterback, and with them playing in front of the home crowd at Lucas Oil Stadium, they should be fired up and ready to get another win against Houston.

Deep passing should provide the Colts with the spark they need. Hilton has already gone off for big play after big play against the Texans in his career, but even if Houston plans against him, that could open up plays deep for Moncrief, who showed off his big-play potential a couple of weeks ago against Washington.

Of course, the problem will be giving Luck enough time in the pocket to find those deep receivers. Watt will likely get to Luck more than a few times during the game, but the key for the third-year quarterback will be to be careful with the ball and not try to force anything. Taking sacks will be better than having fumbles or interceptions.

On the other side of the ball, pressure will be important. Fitzpatrick has a deep threat of his own in DeAndre Hopkins, who has the potential to break off for big gains against this banged-up secondary. As long as guys like Jonathan Newsome, Erik Walden and Cory Redding can get in Fitzpatrick's face, that should make things much harder for the Texans offensively.

Despite their recent struggles offensively, this is going to be a bounce-back game for the Colts at home. This offense still is one of the best in the league with Luck under center, and fans will remember that when he puts up more big numbers on Sunday.

Prediction: Colts 31, Texans 17