Colts Must Pick Up Ground Game to Make a Playoff Run

The Indianapolis Colts are powered by Andrew Luck and the passing game. 

That is not a secret.

The Colts are 9-4 and are poised to win their second consecutive division title because of Luck and the passing game. They are very likely going to the playoffs because of Luck and the passing game. If they make any sort of playoff game, it will be because of Luck and the passing game. 

But Luck can't do it alone. 

The Colts have the most pass-heavy offense in the league, and while there's nothing wrong with that statement in itself, that can't be it for Indianapolis. 

With a defense that has been torched by top quarterbacks and is prone to inconsistency, the offense will need to be elite in order to beat multiple playoff teams. This season, the offense has been far from elite. 

In games where the defense struggled, the offense failed to carry the team. The Colts have allowed 30 or more points in four games—the team's only losses. 

Now, that's not an indictment of the offense; the defense shouldn't be allowing 30-plus points. But it's an acknowledgement of fact: The Colts offense, while very dangerous, hasn't been elite this season. Why? 

It's too one-dimensional.

Well-coached teams can limit the Colts by focusing on stopping the deep pass with safeties rotated over the Colts' deep threats, mainly T.Y. Hilton or Donte Moncrief, while press-man coverage by the cornerbacks effectively takes away much of the Colts' intermediate gains. Not everybody in the AFC has the secondary to pull it off, but AFC powers Denver and New England both do. 

Sure, the Colts would still be able to put up points and get a few big plays. It's inevitable with this offense. The Colts are the only team to score at least 20 points in every game. 

But they can be slowed enough for a team with a good quarterback to win. We saw Denver and New England both do it earlier in the year. 

Without a run game to force the safeties into the box and open up the linebackers to vulnerabilities in play action, the Colts can't put up the high-scoring numbers they'll need to against Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. 

I've argued for the Colts to go to a high-flying passing attack for the last year-and-a-half, so this is dangerous territory, but look at the Colts' run-pass splits over the last few weeks: 

Opponent	Dropbacks	Handoffs	RB Rush Yds	Opp. Run Def. DVOA (Rank)
Steelers	49	7	37	19
Giants	48	22	93	25
Patriots	43	13	19	16
Jaguars	40	25	107	20
Redskins	30	16	100	10
Browns	60	15	56	28
Average	45	16.3	68.7	19.7

For a team that is winning or ahead in a lot of these games, that's astounding. 

The Colts should have a pass-heavy offense, but they should also be able to take advantage of bad run defenses. Look at New England and how they've done that over the last two years. Look at Green Bay with Eddie Lacy. Look at Denver recently with C.J. Anderson. 

Good offenses do one or two things really, really well. Great offenses can complement that strength with another phase when defenses try to adjust. 

So how can the Colts be less predictable and be more successful on the ground? It's one thing to want to run the ball—it's another to actually pull it off without wasting plays, which is what the Colts running game has seemed like more often than not this season. 

David Richard/Associated Press

First, they need to let Dan "Boom" Herron run the ball more. Ever since Ahmad Bradshaw was hurt, Herron has come in and run the ball very effectively. Over the last three games, Herron has run the ball 28 times for 179 yards, which is a 6.39-yard average. His 11.5 percent DVOA (through Week 13) would rank sixth in the league among league starters, per Football Outsiders. 

It was Herron whom they trusted with the short-yardage carries when they needed them most against the Browns, and they were rewarded. Herron actually converted both attempts, although a poor spot shorted him on third down before one of the best runs of the Colts' 2014 season gave them the first on fourth down. 

When it comes to running backs not named Trent Richardson, the Colts have had success. Even on Sunday at Cleveland, when Herron's final line was just eight carries for 26 yards (3.3 yards per carry), the Colts ran it well. Herron was running for four yards per carry (six carries for 24 yards) before the two short-yardage attempts at the end.

Against teams with bad defenses, the Colts have to be more patient with the run game. It will pay off in the end. They will have chances to do so, with their next three opponents ranked No. 18, 24 and 30 in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA.

Of course, Richardson is another story, and that leads to the second part of this plan.

The Colts must find a way to get Richardson to produce if he's going to keep getting snaps. If it's not running the ball, then it must be through the air. 

Catching the ball in this offense is the one thing that Richardson has been able to do this year, but since Bradshaw has been hurt, the Colts haven't been able to get Richardson the ball. The oft-maligned back has zero catches over the last three games, compared to Herron's 11 catches for 84 yards. 

Opponent	Snaps	Carries	Rush Yards	Catches	Rec. Yards
Giants	22	7	33	2	9
Patriots	29	6	0	1	21
Jaguars	41	13	42	0	0
Redskins	27	8	12	0	0
Browns	33	7	30	0	0
Average	30.4	8.2	23.4	0.6	6

If Richardson's production is just going to be wasted running plays, the Colts can't keep playing him.

Among 57 backs that have played at least 85 snaps since Week 9, per Pro Football Focus, Richardson's 147 total yards ranks 51st. His 0.97 yards-per-snap-played average is 55th. The only other backs to produce less than one yard per play? Daniel Thomas, Maurice Jones-Drew and Jacquizz Rodgers (For what it's worth, Herron ranks 17th in yards produced per play with 2.33).

The Colts need more than that. They need help for Andrew Luck. 

If that's not going to be Richardson in any way at all, he shouldn't be on the field for more than a few snaps per game. 

The Colts can get more production from their backs, and they'll have to if they want to be a contender in the AFC. Whether that's on the ground or manufacturing a ground game with halfback screens and dump-offs in the flats, the production has to come.