Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers: Breaking Down Green Bay's Game Plan

A rematch of a game already played once this season, the Green Bay Packers look to improve their 5-3 record against the Chicago Bears in an attempt to close in on the Detroit Lions, who currently lead the NFC North. On the flip side, the Bears, at 3-5, are just trying to gain some momentum in the second half of the season to vault them back into the wild-card discussion.

Unfortunately for Chicago fans, quarterback Jay Cutler hasn't exactly had a great stretch against the Packers. According to the Chicago Sun-Times, he has a 1-9 record against them in his career.

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FACT: Jay Cutler is 1-9 vs. Packers with 19 picks. Here's how he stacks up vs. other teams. #Bears http://t.co/sGYztj6ZqA

— Sun-Times Sports (@suntimes_sports) September 29, 2014"

The Bears' last two losses to Green Bay, both at Soldier Field, were particularly brutal. In the last game of their regular seasons, the Packers scored a fourth-down touchdown to vault their squad over Chicago in the NFC North playoff race in 2013. In late September of this season, the Packers edged out the Bears in a 38-17 victory which featured them scoring 24 consecutive points and no punts.

Bleacher Report's Russell S. Baxter, despite the Bears' recent record, ranked the Packers-Bears rivalry as the third best in the league last season. For Green Bay to win, it must execute both on offense and defense in this highly contested battle.

Offensive key: Limit Jared Allen

In the first meeting between the teams in September, Bears defensive end Jared Allen was not to be found on the field. On the morning of the game, Fox Sports NFL insider Jay Glazer broke the news that Allen not only was going to miss the game due to pneumonia, but that he also dropped 33 pounds since the illness took place.

Since then, Allen, a former Pro Bowler, has improved down the stretch. His 1.5 sacks on the year aren't stellar, but according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Bob McGinn, his 17 pressures in 2014 lead the Bears. He's creating pressure, just not getting home all of the time. As NBC Sports' draft writer Josh Norris continues to remind the football world: Disruption is production.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

The play above is a good example of Allen's production without it appearing on the stat sheet. Here, the New England Patriots are running a power-action play. Allen will be let loose, with a pulling blocker accounting for the edge-rusher when the pass develops.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Here, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady takes his first step as a passer. This lets everyone know it's going to be a pass play. Allen is inches away from becoming engaged with the man in pass protection.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

With a nice swim move, Allen frees himself to make a play on the future Hall of Famer, sprinting toward Brady in an attempt for a sack.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Able to hit him, the pass lands a distance from Brady's target. This incompletion was as much due to Allen as anyone on the field. Nothing shows up in the stat sheet for him officially, though.

If Green Bay's able to limit the disruption caused by the Bears' premier pass-rusher, it'll be in a good position to hit deep throws, therefore getting deep touchdowns or greater field position, which leads to a higher chance of the Packers coming away with a win on Sunday.

Defensive key: Continue Improvement in the Run Game

When Datone Jones, Green Bay's starting defensive end, went down with an ankle injury earlier in the season, many believed Green Bay's run game was in big trouble. Already a liability on the ground, the Packers were now out two of their three starting defensive linemen in the preseason.

B.J. Raji, Green Bay's slated starting nose tackle, also suffered an injury, this one being torn biceps, which landed him on injured reserve for the total of his one-year, $4 million contract season.

Since the loss of Jones, though, the Packers have quietly, if only slightly, improved their run defense, according to ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky.

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According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Packers gave up 4.93 yards per rush, including 3.15 yards before contact with Jones in the lineup. Without Jones, opponents averaged 4.74 yards per rush, but their yards before contact was only 2.47. 

That said, the Packers were dead last in the league in rushing defense allowed when Jones got hurt in Week 5 against the Minnesota Vikings, and they remain there heading into Sunday's game against the Chicago Bears, allowing an average of 153.5 rushing yards per game. 

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With Jones reportedly back, could the defense continue to improve? Could it elevate itself out of the cellar of the NFL's defenses on the ground?

One can only guess. Returning a starting defensive lineman is never a bad thing, though. If nothing else, he'll be able to keep the other defensive linemen, who have been part of an improving defensive run game in his absence, fresh.

If the defense can shutdown the game on the ground, it'd put the ball on Cutler's arm, which doesn't have a stellar win rate against the squad. The Packers have almost put an emphasis on letting him throw, as even during the 2012 season they sent shots at the quarterback.

Then, former Packer cornerback Charles Woodson, now with the Oakland Raiders, told former ESPN reporter Rachel Nichols (via ESPN Chicago): "We understand that Jay is excited about his new weapons, but it's the same-old Jay. We don't need luck; Jay will throw us the ball." 

Over time, the Packers have been confident in their defense's ability against the gunslinging quarterback. If they can force the Bears into a one-dimensional offense, it seems they'd be happy to. That, though, rests on the shoulders of the run defense to go up to bat and come away with a solid performance.

Final Thoughts

If the Packers are able to limit the pass rush from Jared Allen, their offense can prosper in the deep-passing game. While Allen's not producing on the stat sheet, he's still more than disruptive enough to make an impact on the game.

Defensively, slowly but surely, the ground game is improving. With defensive end Datone Jones returning back into the starting lineup, the unit may take the must-needed jump for a playoff run. If the Packers can escalate in that aspect, they can put the game on Jay Culter's arm, which historically hasn't had success against the squad.

If the Packers can meet those two goals, they have a good chance to win the game on Sunday.