Pep Hamilton's Turnaround Critical for Colts' High-Powered Offense

Every once in a while, national, fantasy or other-market analysts will ask me an interesting question: How do Colts fans feel about offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton?

The question, to some degree, just makes me laugh because of the complexity of the situation. 

How do Colts fans feel about Pep Hamilton? 

I don't know if I could give a succinct, accurate answer, but I'll say this: They like him a heck of a lot more now than they did last season, or even in Week 2 of 2014. 

Oftentimes, this would be the case of fans being fickle because of a team's win-loss record. After all, the Colts struggled down the back half of last season and were 0-2 to start 2014. Fans and media alike were livid. They've gone 6-1 since, and it's hard to complain in spades when a team is winning. 

Fans are fickle. It is simply a fact of fanhood. The media is often fickle as well, due to the immediate need for new content at every waking hour. 

But in this case, the fans and media have a right to their seemingly 180-degree attitude flip on Hamilton, because Hamilton has flipped himself.

When Hamilton was hired in 2013, the theme was not Andrew Luck, it was not T.Y. Hilton or Reggie Wayne or an explosive passing offense. It was running the football to create balance, as Hamilton made very clear on arrival, per Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk: 

"

We’ll do a great job of mixing in some power runs, mixing in the downfield passing game, maybe even mixing in some wildcat plays, mix in some read-option, pistol-type schemes. Just really try and present once again a lot of conflicts for our opponents.

You start upfront with the offensive line. We’ll continue to work and develop that continuity. I mean that’s where it all starts. I think it’s important that we have balance in our offense. We’re not just a one-dimensional football team. We want to create conflicts for our opponents. We want to have the ability to not only push the ball downfield and hit the big play in the passing game but we’ve got to be able to run the football.

"

Peter King of Sports Illustrated got a similar tone from Hamilton early last season: 

"

Pep Hamilton when I went to Colts camp in Aug: "We are a power-running team." Not, "We'll TRY to be a power-running team."

— Peter King (@SI_PeterKing) October 15, 2013"

Those attitudes weren't just talk either. The Colts continued to try to force-feed Trent Richardson, over-utilized fullback Stanley Havili and didn't open up the downfield passing offense like they should have with young, explosive receivers like T.Y. Hilton, Da'Rick Rogers and LaVon Brazill. 

Everybody, from media to fans to players knew that Hamilton wanted to run the ball well. It was a sticking point for him. Reggie Wayne told Stephen Holder of The Indianapolis Star about it to start this season: 

"

When he got hired, I could tell he wanted to run the ball. Just look at his Stanford (offense). They ran the ball. I even tried to dig up some stuff from when he was the quarterback at Howard. I said, 'Hmm, what was their philosophy?' 

"

It wasn't a bad idea, in theory, but the Colts were built for a high-flying passing attack, with a picture-perfect quarterback and young weapons. The running game simply wasn't there, not with that offensive line and not with Richardson as the power-running "bell cow." To force that team into a San Francisco-like offense when it had the perfect parts to be a high-volume passing offense was madness.

But near the end of last season, Hamilton finally began to adjust. The Colts began using more shotgun-spread looks, especially to start games to get out to big leads. It looked like the Colts would be back on track in 2014, especially with guys like Wayne and Dwayne Allen coming back, as well as rookie Donte Moncrief entering the fold. 

Then Weeks 1-2 happened. The Philadelphia game was the low point. The Colts came out in power sets and ran the ball effectively, surprising everybody with the game plan against the weak Philadelphia secondary. Because of the surprise, the run game worked to start the game, but the Eagles adjusted in the second half and corralled the Colts. 

The Colts never adjusted and never tested the Eagles secondary that had allowed Kirk Cousins to look like Dan Marino the week before. Chuck Pagano would blame the Eagles defense for taking away deep routes, but that was more because of the Colts' lack of downfield route combinations than Philadelphia's extreme game plan. 

Then, with the game on the line and less than three-and-a-half minutes left, the Colts had one last chance to drive to win the game. Rather than give the ball to Luck and a passing offense, the Colts handed it off on two straight downs, setting up Luck with one chance to get a first down that he could not convert. 

It was a rough night to be a Colts fan, and Hamilton took the brunt of the blame (check the comments on this piece), most of it deserved. 

But since that low point, Hamilton has reversed course. Perhaps that was the jolt he needed. Perhaps Pagano finally let loose with his "run the ball, stop the run" mentality (Colts Authority writer Nate Dunlevy believes Pagano has had more influence in that regard than Hamilton. I don't know which is true, but it's a plausible scenario). 

Regardless, the Colts have gone from "balanced" to just "passing" ever since. 

"

Adjusted for game flow, the pass-heaviest offensive teams: Colts (8% above expected) Broncos (4%) Lions (4%) Falcons (4%) Patriots (3%)

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) November 4, 2014"

The last two weeks have been the epitome of that style, perhaps even going a bit too far. Luck handed the ball off just seven times against the Steelers, and handed it off just seven times in the first three quarters of the game against the Giants en route to a 37-10 lead. 

It's not just running the ball, either. The Colts have gone from one of the more conservative passing styles, relying on dinking and dunking down the field to a more aggressive, downfield focus that is more suited to Luck's abilities and the big-play nature of having so many weapons. Last year, Luck was a bottom 10 quarterback in "air yards" per attempt. This season, he's in the top 10. 

Last year, Luck completed 24 "aimed" passes at least 20 yards down the field, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). This year, he's already completed 23 in just nine weeks. 

The Colts know what their bread and butter is, and they're executing it with precision. It's confidently a top-five offense in the league, and Hamilton's influence must be credited. 

Will the Colts keep running this pass-heavy a game plan? I'd guess no. After the bye, against a largely inferior second-half schedule, the Colts will likely try to get the run game going and protect Luck from as much wear and tear as possible. 

But make no mistake, these coaches know how important Luck and the passing offense is now. The old run-heavy coaching points are all but dead, quite ironically symbolized by the waiving of fullback Stanley Havili Tuesday, per Tom James of the Star-Tribune. 

The new Colts, much like the old Colts of the Peyton Manning years, are a better, more efficient offense. As much damning as Hamilton got before, he deserves praise for the turnaround now. He saw the need for change, and he made the necessary adjustments. It didn't seem like something that was likely, not to this extreme, but it happened, and it's working.

As a coach, you can't ask for much more.