Max Scherzer Unworthy of Elite-Ace Money in a Plentiful Market

Max Scherzer let it ride.

He put the money on the table, along with his game and gambled with his future.

The stakes: By passing on a guaranteed $144 million from the Detroit Tigers, Scherzer was willing to bet his 2014 performance and the free-agent market would net him upward of $175 million, possibly $200 million, from another team this winter.

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There are 121 eligible free agents who can sign with any team beginning Tuesday, led by #Tigers RHP Max Scherzer, who could hit $200 million

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) October 30, 2014"

The Tigers are almost certain to not be the ones giving Scherzer that heap of money. Detroit general manager Dave Dombrowski discussed that notion during a press conference earlier this month, via Jason Beck of MLB.com:

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Well, we had thorough conversations before the season, and I don’t know that it’s all dictated by us at this point. I think we made ourselves pretty well known at that time where we stood. He’s a quality pitcher. We know that. He’s done a lot for our organization, but it’s apparent that his representative wanted him to test free agency.

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While Scherzer did his part to sustain his value during this last regular season, the market might not be as rich and willing as he expected.

Scherzer was not quite as good this season as he was in 2013 when he won the American League Cy Young Award, but he was pretty close. Overall, he was still one of the most valuable starting pitchers in the majors. He again led the AL in wins (18), threw more innings (220.1) and struck out more hitters (252). His WHIP was a bit higher in 2014 (1.175 compared to 0.970 last year) and his ERA jumped up a touch (3.15 versus 2.90) as did his FIP (2.85 versus 2.74).

His ERA-plus dropped from 144 in 2013 to 127 this year. He was also not very sharp in the postseason, allowing five runs to the Baltimore Orioles over 7.1 innings in the AL Division Series.

The numbers, while not as good as his stellar Cy Young season, are still elite, especially coming from the AL. However, the market might not play like Scherzer and agent Scott Boras thought when they declined Detroit’s six-year, $144 million extension offer.

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Source: Tigers’ offer to Max Scherzer was six years, $144 million. That was what Cole Hamels signed for in 2012. @FOXSportsLive

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) March 23, 2014"

Teams are continuing to see offensive numbers dwindle, placing elite hitters at more of a premium than elite pitchers. As far as contracts go, this hasn’t played out recently considering the deals given to Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Cole Hamels and Zack Greinke.

But in a market with plenty of options beyond a nine-figure player, Scherzer might find himself waiting well past Christmas, a process Boras is familiar with. It is also possible Scherzer will be working next season with one of his agent's infamous one-year “pillow contracts.” If that happens, it would make the pitcher the highest-profile player not linked to performance-enhancing drugs to land one of those deals.

Scherzer’s first obstacle is finding teams willing to spend north of $150 million. There are few. The Tigers are out of the mix since there seemed to be some bad blood when Scherzer rejected their $144 million offer, and because the team might already be regretting the $180 million it gave Verlander. Also, trading for David Price allows them to let Scherzer walk without regret.

Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images

The Chicago Cubs are a viable option.

They have a lot of team-friendly contracts on the offensive side because of their young core. That leaves them looking for pitching, which could vault them into contender status in the NL Central next season. While Scherzer will be on the radar for president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer, the rumor mill has them favoring another free-agent ace, Jon Lester.

Then again, The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo floated the rumor last weekend that the Cubs could go after both aces.

Scherzer and Boras could also flirt with the New York Yankees, who are off their budget restrictions this offseason. The Seattle Mariners also have money, but they might love their young pitching enough that they don’t need another big-money arm in the rotation to pair with Hernandez.

While the Los Angeles Dodgers might explore the possibility, their interest in Scherzer is likely minimal, especially with Andrew Friedman, their new president of baseball operations, wanting to build from within and Scherzer costing his club a draft pick.

The Washington Nationals are an interesting option as they can afford the contract, but they also have Jordan Zimmermann coming up on free agency after next season. If they sign Scherzer, they could trade Zimmermann this winter for a big haul. But that still doesn’t provide answers for how they’ll sign Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper to expensive extensions in the near future.

There is also the competition for Scherzer, mainly Lester and James Shields, who are both free agents and will be seeking big deals. When set next to Lester, Scherzer doesn’t tower over him as the better pitcher, which could drive both prices down.

There is also the secondary market for free-agent pitchers.

The non-aces include Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen, Hiroki Kuroda, Francisco Liriano, Brandon McCarthy, Jake Peavy, Ervin Santana and Edinson Volquez. While those names aren’t as good as the top three, they are viable options for most teams unwilling to give someone $28 million in average annual salary. Those deals also carry far less risk, since deals in the two- to five-year range are most likely.

There is still another avenue for starting pitching that can hurt Scherzer’s value in free agency: the trade market. That barrel figures to feature Oakland’s Jeff Samardzija, Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto and Philadelphia’s Hamels, all of whom have ace-type stuff and pedigree.

Then there is Scherzer himself, who will be 31 next July. While he is the kind of signing that can change the complexion of a division, the question is for how long. It is quite possible we’ve already seen the best seasons in Scherzer’s arm, and any team that signs him could be chasing that kind of production without success for the duration of his contract.

Aside from the Dodgers signing Greinke, most teams spending big for pitching are teams who already have those pitchers. Teams looking for new blood are becoming far less likely to spend wildly for it, and the game’s executives have become cautious giving out lengthy, expensive contracts to pitchers in their 30s.

If there is an agent who can land the unexpected mega-contract for his guy, it’s Boras. However, while Scherzer seems to be the best pitcher on the free-agent market this winter, it would be foolish for a team to give him anywhere near the $180 million to $200 million he will be seeking.

It’s the kind of deal several teams have come to regret recently, and Scherzer projects to be no different.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News, and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.