Reggie Wayne's Elbow Injury Opens Opportunity for T.Y. Hilton to Ascend

When Reggie Wayne went down in the Colts' seventh game of last season, the team handed a heavy burden over to second-year receiver T.Y. Hilton. With Wayne again having gone down in the seventh game of this season—albeit to a far less severe injury, as he'll miss a game or two at most, per Colts reporter Mike Chappell (via TheIndyChannel.com)—the Colts will again turn to Hilton.

Indy will hope the results go better this time.

Hilton finished with 82 receptions for 1,083 yards as Andrew Luck's top target in 2013 but was far closer to a league-average receiver than those numbers would indicate. Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, which normalizes a player's statistics against replacement level, ranked Hilton as the 43rd-best receiver in football. Pro Football Focus' metrics (subscription required) were far kinder, ranking Hilton 18th, but the takeaways were unclear. Hilton was talented, sure, but even Colts fansites came into 2014 wondering if Hilton was a true No. 1 target.

The answer so far in 2014: Hell. Yes.

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Hilton, like many on the 5-2 Colts, has emerged this season as a vastly improved player. He is on pace to blast career highs in every major category save touchdowns and had a nine-catch, 223-yard coming-out party on national television against the Houston Texans. DVOA through Monday night has Hilton eighth, while Football Outsiders' DYAR ranks him behind only the Green Bay Packers' Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson. PFF's WR Rating holds firm with a No. 16 ranking, but that's in large part due to Hilton having a sole touchdown; he's a top-five guy in yards per route run.

"He's obviously a big, big playmaker," Luck told reporters, per Chappell. "You expect those big numbers out of him. He's earned that respect from people."

Hilton is currently third in the NFL in receiving yards behind the Pittsburgh Steelers' Antonio Brown and Nelson. After a drop of four yards per reception from 2012 to 2013, Hilton has found an appropriate middle ground between one-dimensional deep threat and possessions receiver. It would seem like the 5'9", 178-pound Florida International product is in the middle of a superstar breakout. Which in turn is what makes Wayne's upcoming absence so interesting.

Can Hilton keep this going without Wayne?

It's hard to say. At age 35 and coming off a devastating knee injury, it's clear Reggie Wayne is no longer Reggie Wayne. He looks a beat or two slower on film, more easily covered by a single defender, and the numbers back that up. Wayne is setting a career-low in yards per catch, and Football Outsiders and PFF both have tepid outlooks.

That said, Wayne still commands respect. He's on the shortlist of the NFL's best route-runners and one of the league's smartest receivers. Defensive coordinators plan for Wayne because they know he'll exploit any hole in their coverage, and he's burnt most of them so many times that they continue showing him star-level respect when the production isn't there.

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In a post last week, ESPN.com's Mike Wells wrote Wayne remains Luck's "go-to" receiver. Even though Hilton has made more receptions, has been targeted more and is clearly the more dangerous player, opposing defenses still treat Wayne with as much if not more respect.

The Colts are far better equipped to withstand a Wayne absence this time around. Not only is Hilton a better player, but the team signed Hakeem Nicks this offseason, who has been only intermittently effective but is a superior option to the likes of Darrius Heyward-Bey and Griff Whalen, whom Indy trotted out in 2013. Rookie third-round pick Donte Moncrief may also see extended action if Wayne is forced to miss time. Given the way Luck is playing, an empty case of Bud Light could probably produce a 100-yard day.

The offense as a whole will be fine. The Colts travel to Pittsburgh and New York the next two weeks for tilts with the Steelers and New York Giants, neither of whom possesses a secondary that's exactly lighting the world on fire. (In the case of Pittsburgh, one might wonder if that group can even work together long enough to start a fire.)

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These next two weeks—which might not even be zero weeks, by the way—are more of an opportunity for Hilton to verify his status than anything. Two-week samples are impossible to judge by, and it'd no way be an indictment of Hilton as a player if he struggles (he's very, very good). I'm just more curious to see how he'll function without Wayne as a safety net. 

Last season, the Colts scored nearly five points less per game during the regular season with Wayne out of the lineup. Luck was robbed of his best and most productive receiver. Hilton was thrust into a top wideout role and produced middling results.

That isn't the case in 2014. The Colts have the backups in place to withstand a Wayne absence. Luck is starting to realize his "best quarterback on the planet" potential. Hilton is emerging as a Pro Bowl candidate. If Wayne misses time, it'll be fun to see if they can keep the good times rolling.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.