Jacksonville Jaguars Tackle Luke Joeckel Has Played Like a Bust so Far

There weren't many sure things coming out of the 2013 NFL Draft. One unnamed executive mentioned to then-CBS (now Bleacher Report) writer Mike Freeman at the time (h/t NFL.com) that it was "the worst draft class in a decade."

But the surest thing at the time was Luke Joeckel, the Texas A&M left tackle that B/R's Matt Miller saw as a "top-tier left tackle prospect." Miller went so far as to say he saw Joeckel as a "Joe Thomas-like presence," which is lofty praise.

Joeckel surprisingly fell to Jacksonville after Kansas City selected Eric Fisher No. 1 overall, which was seen as a happy coincidence for a Jaguars franchise that desperately needed some good news.

A year-and-a-half later, Joeckel is the only player on Jacksonville's offensive line with his pedigree, and yet he has played as poorly as any of the Jaguars as they have struggled to find traction on offense. The offensive line was a key factor in Chad Henne's 10-sack fiesta against Washington in Week 2, and any changes made to the line have just seemed to be trading open wounds for paper cuts. 

Despite how athletic and mobile Blake Bortles is, he took six sacks in last Sunday's loss to the Titans. The Titans, by the way, came into the game as the 17th-ranked defense in Adjusted Sack Rate per Football Outsiders. That a middle-of-the-pack pass rush like Tennessee's could come in and wreak havoc on an offensive line is very telling. 

Joeckel has not been the weakest link in the line so far this year, if you believe Pro Football Focus' offensive line grades (subscription required). Both the released Cameron Bradfield (minus-7.6 in 111 snaps) and interior player Jacques McClendon (minus-8.6 in 114 snaps) have been worse on a per-snap basis. 

However, Joeckel does have the worst cumulative grade on the offensive line. And perhaps more frighteningly for Jaguars fans, we are 11 games into Joeckel's career, but he's yet to even have one positive game score on PFF's grade scale. It's one thing to be inconsistent; quite another to be reliably bad. 

Year/Game	PFF Rating	Pass Block	Run Block	Penalty
2013 / v. KC	-1.7	-1.8	-0.2	0.3
2013 / @ OAK	-0.9	1.5	-1.2	-1.7
2013 / @ SEA	-0.4	0.0	-0.7	0.3
2013 / v. IND	-2.2	-1.1	-1.3	0.2
2013/ @ STL	-2.5	-1.1	-1.4	0.0
2014 / @ PHI	-1.0	-0.6	-0.7	0.3
2014 / v. WAS	-2.2	-1.0	-1.4	0.2
2014 / v. IND	-0.7	0.4	-0.3	-0.8
2014 / @ SD	-1.3	-2.9	1.3	0.3
2014 / v. PIT	-0.7	0.4	-1.3	0.2
2014 / @ TEN	-1.9	-0.5	-1.7	0.3
TOTALS	-18.8	-6.7	-8.9	-0.4

Sure, the circumstances around Joeckel's development have been awkward. Sustaining a high-ankle fracture that ended his season in Week 5 last season set back Joeckel's clock.

The decision to start him at right tackle rather than at left tackle in his rookie season was also founded on shaky ground considering his prospect status and incumbent left tackle Eugene Monroe's pending free agency (the Jaguars would trade Monroe for fourth- and fifth-round picks before Joeckel's injury only to watch Joeckel be lost for the season in his first game on the left side).

Joeckel told Ryan O'Halloran of the Florida Times-Union that he did underestimate how quick the NFL is in coming back from the injury, which at least helps explain how poorly he played in Jacksonville's first game against Philadelphia. 

"I think I did underestimate how this is such a fast and physical game, and if you’re not full-strength it’s difficult,” [Joeckel] said. “Getting back to that was definitely a transition, and I still feel like I’m fighting for that.”

Jacksonville's offensive line was always going to be a work in progress this season. Still, it's stunning how little help they are getting from the one player they have with elite athletic ability. Joeckel should have been the player keeping this line up, not down. 

It's too early to write Joeckel off. At the same time, what do you call a player with all the tools but none of the performance? As an organization, when do you hit the tipping point where you realize that expectations for a player need to be reduced?

We're reaching the point where statisticians would talk about "stabilization" and how we've seen enough sample to get a "true ability" for Joeckel going forward. 

That doesn't mean there's no time to snap out of it—injuries are extenuating circumstances (I'd put more stock into an injury-based excuse if Joeckel had played well before the injury). But right now, the Jaguars have watched the No. 2 overall pick play no better than the Austin Pastzors or Bradfields they developed off the street. 

This wasn't as big of a deal before, when Joeckel was only protecting the generic backup, Henne. But for the sake of Bortles' development, the Jaguars are going to need adequate line play from somewhere.

The fact that the Jaguars haven't yet come to expect that from Joeckel may not lead many people to call him a bust right at this moment. But they're sure starting to think it. 

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.