NASCAR at Charlotte 2014: Complete Preview, Prediction for Bank of America 500
The excitement level has kicked up a notch after four of the 10 races in the 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup.
In the aftermath of what should have been a boring and non-eventful 1.5-mile sleeper at Kansas Speedway last weekend is an upside down Chase field full of surprises.
And here comes another 1.5-mile race, but this one will be anything but boring. Charlotte Motor Speedway is an original, a throwback to NASCAR’s early years. It's a place filled with nostalgia, a bumpy surface, a hometown crowd and a pressure-cooker atmosphere.
Every lap of every race matters now. Saturday night’s Sprint Cup race is long—500 miles. That’s plenty of opportunities to screw things up.
When the smoke clears from the race winner’s frontstretch donuts, just around midnight, we’ll have a better idea of who will move on to the next round and whose Chase is about over.
Qualifying Report
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Kyle Busch was a model of consistency in winning the pole for Saturday night’s Bank of America 500 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Busch ran laps of 27.39 seconds (197.116 mph) in the first, 27.33 seconds (197.549) in the second and 27.35 seconds (197.390) in the last of the three knockout qualifying sessions Thursday evening to win his third Sprint Cup pole of 2014.
“Dave (Rogers, crew chief) made some really good adjustments this time. You have to adjust on these things for these qualifying runs,” Busch told a national television audience after qualifying. “The track changes just a little bit, but the car and the tires change too. I can't say enough about these guys.”
Starting alongside Busch is five-time Charlotte winner Jeff Gordon with a lap of 27.38 seconds, 197.217 mph. Denny Hamlin starts third, Tony Stewart is fourth and Ryan Newman rounds out the top five.
Busch’s older brother Kurt reset the record books during the second round of qualifying. His speed of 198.771 mph was the fastest qualifying lap at a 1.5-mile track in Sprint Cup Series history. The previous record was set by Kevin Harvick at Texas Motor Speedway in April (198.282 mph).
Justin Allgaier was the highest qualifying rookie (16th).
Notable starts: Kevin Harvick (seventh), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (ninth), Kurt Busch (11th), Joey Logano (13th), Brad Keselowski (17th) and Jimmie Johnson (21st).
Qualifying statistics courtesy of NASCAR Integrated Marketing Communications.
Hometown Race: Charlotte Motor Speedway and the Bank of America 500
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If there is a home track for NASCAR, it’s Charlotte Motor Speedway. The area is home to the majority of NASCAR’s teams. This means the ticket requests from friends and family skyrocket.
“You wind up with a lot of the guys at the race track with their families there that normally don’t get to go to the race track,” Kevin Harvick said in his pre-race media release. “You go there and you feel like you want to do good because you want to be able to celebrate with those guys that aren’t normally there.”
Winning at Charlotte means keeping up with the changing track conditions. It's a very temperature-sensitive track, and this is a long race. Alternative race strategies—two-tire stops, gas only and short pitting (stopping early)—often come into play.
The biggest challenge at Charlotte is keeping the front splitter off the ground while maintaining good corner-exit speed. Teams often build their race cars to run tight for Charlotte. This helps keep the car free and rolling through the corners with speed. A driver with the right setup can take a lap around the track while barely having to lift his or her foot off the gas pedal.
Bank Of America 500
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway
When: Saturday, Oct. 11
Time: Race begins approx. 7:30 p.m. (ET)
TV: ABC, Countdown begins at 7 p.m. (ET)
Radio: Performance Racing Network (PRN), Sirius XM Ch. 90
Distance: 501 miles (334 laps)
Key Storylines
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Earnhardt, Keselowski and Johnson Walking on Thin Ice
Following a disastrous race at Kansas by each one of them, three of the biggest names in NASCAR find themselves in danger of being eliminated from the Chase.
It’s made the list of 12 drivers who remain in the Chase look a bit topsy-turvy. And what makes things worse is these three now have to rely on one or more of the remaining Chase drivers having a bad race. They know it can happen.
Especially the man who’s won the title six times.
“We’ve got to be on our game at Charlotte and Talladega,” Jimmie Johnson said in his team’s pre-race media release. “There is still a lot of racing left. Stuff can happen. We’ll see how the other Chasers fare. If I can get taken out (at Kansas), somebody else can later.”
The math is easy. In order to secure a championship future, the easiest path is to win a race. Unfortunately, they only hand out one winner’s trophy each race. That means over the next two weekends, one driver from this trio of superstars will likely be facing bad news.
Goodyear in the Crosshairs Again this Weekend
After the slew of tire failures last weekend in Kansas, fans are calling for the head of someone, anyone, from Goodyear.
However, according to Jim Utter at the Charlotte Observer, who did some investigative work, the “tire problem” at Kansas isn’t that much of a mystery. Utter states that “only two—the teams of Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Brad Keselowski—do not yet have a clear-cut explanation for their tire failures.”
It is unfortunate that tires fail at a critical time in the season and can make a huge difference in the outcome of the race and a driver’s standings in the Chase. But every one of the 43 teams uses the same tires, and often the failures can be explained away, as Utter said.
Usually after a tire fails, the driver swears that his team isn’t running a radical setup—and it is. Or the crew chief shakes his head in disbelief that the work he pushed beyond its limits in order to get that little bit of competitive edge ended up failing.
There’s no real answer to the tire conundrum, because as well as Goodyear makes its tires, there will be always be an instance that will cause one of them to fail. The only way to prevent failures from ever happening is for NASCAR to initiate an even stricter set of rules regarding setups, and that’s not going to happen anytime soon.
Larson Makes Watching Racing Fun Again
As the Chase field prepares to do battle again on Saturday night, rookie Kyle Larson is once again poised to steal the spotlight, possibly by winning the race—which would be his first in the Sprint Cup series.
Sportswriters have already worn out the adage “a win waiting to happen” when describing Larson. His performance every weekend is that proverbial win waiting to happen, and in many cases he is racing better than most of the Chase field. Only circumstance has kept Larson out of Victory Lane.
During this week’s NASCAR media conference call, Larson expressed confidence that his first win is likely to happen on one of the remaining 1.5-mile tracks on the schedule—like Charlotte Motor Speedway.
“Which race I think I'll get my first win at?” Larson said. "I think any mile‑and‑a‑half that's left in the schedule, so Charlotte, Texas or Homestead probably are the three where I'll have the best shot. I hope I can get a win at any of these next coming tracks, but I'd say those are the highest chances for me to win. I'll go into those races with extra confidence and hopefully get it done.”
For a reminder, Larson has finished third, second, sixth and second at Chicagoland, Loudon, Dover and Kansas, respectively. His No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet is arguably the most entertaining car to watch during a race, as the young rookie races in areas of the track most often considered to be out of bounds.
It's easy to think he doesn’t know any better, but maybe he's just that good.
Top Contenders
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Jimmie Johnson
This track used to be called “Jimmie’s House” along with about a half-dozen other places. Seven wins in 26 starts is a remarkable percentage. Johnson knows that a) he needs to win, and b) his time is running out.
Brad Keselowski
The Team Penske driver won this race last year. He has to—and can—do it again this year. He and his team know it too.
Kevin Harvick
Enough already. The running joke of “what’s going to happen to Harvick this week” is getting very tiresome. Still the best driver and car on any given race weekend, Harvick absolutely must find all the pieces to the puzzle this time.
The No. 24 team has been flying a bit under the radar for the past several races, but Gordon remains eighth in points. I’m convinced the team is looking at its 14th-place finish at Kansas as its one “mulligan” race. I think it was too.
Joey Logano
He's always a threat to win, but Charlotte isn’t one of his better tracks. Logano isn’t the driver he’s always been. Two wins in a row could make it a nonstop express ride all the way to the Homestead podium for this team.
Potential Chase Spoiler
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Brian Vickers
Last weekend, Vickers had the fastest Toyota in the field, starting on the front row alongside Kevin Harvick at Kansas. Vickers ran a solid race, didn’t make any mistakes and finished 10th.
The Michael Waltrip Racing driver (and our favorite Xarelto-commercial actor) has consistently been improving week after week. He’s been good at the fast tracks (like Charlotte) and competitive against the faster Chevrolets and Fords.
Can he put his No. 55 Camry back on the front row? The answer is yes.
One catch: It will take some smart pit strategy by crew chief Billy Scott on Saturday night. A two-tire stop late in the race for track position may be the ticket.
And the Winner Is...
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Brad Keselowski
With the kind of season Keselowski has had, it would be inconceivable that he not go all the way to the final race in Homestead, if not win the championship.
His poor showing at Kansas was not his own doing. And the best part about this team is that it's shown it can come back from adversity. After finishing 39th at Atlanta in August, the No. 2 team came back with a vengeance and won the next two races at Richmond and Chicagoland.
Keselowski’s Paul Wolfe-led team is likely to do a similar feat this weekend.
"This team thrives with adversity and I am not one to back down when challenged, so I feel as though we are ready for this one," Keselowski, the defending race winner, said in a pre-race media release by his team.
All quotes are taken from official NASCAR, team and manufacturer media releases unless otherwise stated.
Bob Margolis is a member of the National Motorsports Press Association and has covered NASCAR, IndyCar, the NHRA and Sports Cars for more than two decades as a writer, television producer and on-air talent.
On Twitter: @BobMargolis
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