Chris Bosh Is a Stealth NBA MVP Candidate for 2014-15 Season

Chris Bosh is ready for his close-up.

With LeBron James back with his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers and Dwyane Wade on the wane, the center is set to assume a much larger role for the Miami Heat in 2014-15. And he’s poised for a level of production that should open eyes around the league.

The afterthought is set to become a front-runner for awards consideration.

A quick point of clarification: While Bosh could—maybe should—be stellar in 2014-15, he won’t actually win the MVP. That’s an honor that’s almost invariably reserved for the sport’s creme de le creme—first-ballot Hall of Famers and all-time greats.

It's for players who can single-handedly elevate a team to contention. As David Stern used to say, every team is one player away from a title—and his name is Shaq. The award is for players like that.

The least deserving MVP in recent history, by the judgment of many pundits at least, was likely Steve Nash in 2005-06. And Nash paced the NBA in true shooting percentage that year and posted, according to Basketball-Reference.com, 12.4 win shares—a total Bosh has never matched in his 11-season career.

That iteration of Nash’s Phoenix Suns also won 54 games, a total even the most optimistic forecasters have the Heat falling well short of.

Furthermore, in a league with LeBron and Kevin Durant playing at historic levels—and for teams that will almost certainly win games in bunches—it’s difficult to imagine anyone else elbowing their way to the trophy, however deserving they may be.

Alan Diaz/Associated Press

But Bosh should be in the MVP conversation in 2014-15, in the same way, say, Joakim Noah and Carmelo Anthony have gotten some buzz in recent seasons. At the least, articles like this will be written about him. He’ll be buzzed about.

Part of the reason Bosh should generate gee-whiz chatter is the increase in scoring opportunities he’ll receive. After four years as an overlooked third banana—albeit a generously compensated one—Bosh will be Miami’s No. 1 scoring option. He’ll get opportunities aplenty to stuff the box score.

Bosh was largely a mid-range weapon the last four seasons, which depressed his offensive production. Consider this: In his final season with the Toronto Raptors, 2009-10, Bosh averaged a career-high 24 points and 10.8 rebounds. During his four years in Miami, those figures slipped to 17.3 points and 7.4 rebounds a night.

But with LeBron gone, that trend is likely to reverse itself. Bosh spoke to ESPN Insider Tom Haberstroh (subscription required) this offseason and suggested that he’ll be taking on a beefed up role in the Miami offense:

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I'm looking forward to expanding my game all over the court. I want to be able to do everything. I want to make plays, I want to play in the mid-range, short range, free throws, post-ups, face-ups—I want to do it all. It's exciting for me. I feel like my game can really open up now and I'll be in a position to do that now and help other guys out.

"

The primary area where Bosh’s game should grow is the low post. Bosh has been known, in recent seasons, as primarily a mid-range shooter. This isn’t without merit. His role in the Big Three-era Miami attack was as a stretch 4 who did enough damage from outside to keep opposing bigs from fixating on the slashing James and Wade.

And he thrived in this role. During his first four seasons in Miami, Bosh took nearly 73 percent of his attempts from outside three feet of the basket, according to Basketball-Reference.com. Fewer than 66 percent of his attempts came from that range in Toronto.

And despite the fact that mid-range shots are inefficient relative to threes and attempts near the rim, Bosh spent more time outside without suffering any meaningful downtick in true shooting percentage: He was at 57.1 during his time in Toronto and 57.8 in Miami, according to Basketball-Reference.com.

Jason DeCrow/Associated Press

But, in the post, he could be a lot better. Though Bosh spent plenty of time on the perimeter in 2014-15, he also developed a sneakily deadly inside game. According to NBA.com, Bosh finished fourth among qualified players in field-goal percentage from within five feet of the basket last season. Two of those players are named LeBron and Durant.

And the Boshtrich should be spending more time inside in 2014-15. There simply isn’t any other way. A team as analytically inclined as the Heat just won’t allow its offense to run through the mid-range game.

Bosh himself indicated as much in a September interview with the (South Florida) Sun Sentinel’s Shandel Richardson. A return to the low post is nigh:

“I had to play the role for the championships," he said. "I feel that I’m back to doing what comes naturally for me, which is being back in the post, being more aggressive. I’m really excited to show the city of Miami what I have."

So Bosh, already deadly accurate from mid-range, will now be spending more time inside, where he’s also a quiet star. And there’s a secondary benefit to this shift as well. Bosh should see a boost in rebounding figures once he starts spending more time around the basket.

As the Washington Post’s Seth Partnow pointed out, throughout Bosh's career, his offensive-rebounding rates have tracked very closely with the average distance of his shots. That is, the farther from the basket his attempts get, the fewer rebounds he pulls down. So this season, when he’s (presumably) shooting closer, he should secure more O-boards.

Eric Gay/Associated Press

And Partnow suggested that Bosh’s defensive-rebounding numbers could see a spike too. The reasons for this, he suggested, are twofold.

First, because Miami replaced a very good defensive rebounder (LeBron) with a less effective one (Luol Deng), there will be more available rebounds for Bosh. And second, because Miami, minus LeBron, should play a more conventional defense, that will leave Bosh closer to the basket on the other end of the floor. Per Partnow:

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Miami will almost certainly abandon the blitzing style of defense which characterized much of the team’s success over the past four seasons. That scheme often left Bosh chasing pick-and-roll ballhandlers 25 feet or more from the basket. Presumably, Miami will return to a more vanilla style of defense, allowing Bosh to stay home more. 

"

With all these factors considered, it’s easy to envision a matured Bosh returning to something like the production of his Toronto days, when he averaged over 22 points per game in each of his last five seasons and broke 10 rebounds thrice.

This probably wouldn’t be enough to actually garner Bosh serious MVP consideration or lift Miami to anything like the lofty heights it’s reached the last four seasons, but it just might earn the two-time NBA champion something he’s been short on lately: respect.