5 Reasons Terrence Jones Should Start at Power Forward for Houston Rockets
It's the time of year when position battles enter full swing, and—even on the heels of a 54-win season—the Houston Rockets' training camp is no exception.
Particularly at the power forward spot, according to head coach Kevin McHale.
"They need to go out there and take that spot. It's open for competition," McHale told reporters after the team's first practice in September, per Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle.
"We need guys who are going to defend with physicality and rebound," McHale added. "We had two of the top rebounders in the league last year with Omer [Asik] and Dwight [Howard] and we were still like 20th in rebounding. What does that say about the other guys? Not much."
For the record, Houston ranked fourth in team rebounds per game (with an average of 45.3) and second in rebounding differential, grabbing an average of 3.6 more boards than its opponents. The club also ranked second in rebound rate (52.1), per Hollinger's Team Statistics.
So McHale's sentiment may be more about motivating improved effort than legitimately considering a shakeup of the starting lineup.
Competition for the spot ostensibly includes two candidates: Incumbent starter Terrence Jones and third-year Lithuanian Donatas Motiejunas.
Reasons abound to maintain the status quo and give Jones another shot at the starting job. Here are five of them.
He's Better Than You Think
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At first glance, Terrence Jones' 12.1 points and 6.9 rebounds per contest (last season) don't jump out as indicators of elite production.
Having shared the floor with go-to options like James Harden, Dwight Howard and Chandler Parsons, that's not especially surprising. Jones didn't benefit from a high volume of touches, as evidenced by a 16.8 usage rate that ranked 42nd among 79 qualifying power forwards, according to Hollinger Stats.
To put that number in perspective, it fell between sparingly-used reserves Darrell Arthur and Ed Davis.
Despite becoming something of an afterthought in Houston, Jones showed off the kind of efficiency that should—without any further debate—guarantee him a starting spot going into 2014-15.
His 19.14 player efficiency rating ranked 15th among those 79 power forwards and added an estimated 7.9 wins on the season (beyond what a "replacement player" would have contributed)—which ranked 14th among 4s.
Those numbers actually ranked ahead of more heralded forwards like David West and Markieff Morris. Had Jones seen more opportunities with the ball in his hands, there's really no telling what kind of season he might have had.
Basketball Insiders' John Zitzler cited Jones as one of the league's most underrated power forwards, concluding that, "Still growing as a player, Jones has the chance to be even better this upcoming season and may not be underrated much longer."
The data seems to confirm that.
Another season—and perhaps some increased responsibility—may well render the point irrefutable.
Continuity Matters
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The Houston Rockets are already entering the 2014-15 campaign without several key pieces from a season ago.
No more Chandler Parsons. No Jeremy Lin. No Omer Asik.
The last thing head coach Kevin McHale should do is exacerbate the upheaval with an entirely unnecessary adjustment to the starting lineup. This is a unit that's forged some chemistry and produced encouraging results, a unit that will be pressed to do even more without Parsons in the fold.
Now's the time to build upon that shared knowledge and connectivity.
Fortunately, that appears to be Terrence Jones' working assumption.
"I just go at it like it's my spot," Jones told reporters in September, per Feigen. "I've been working hard all summer just to stay focused and maintain that spot. I don't really look at it as a competition. I look at it as a way to get better in practice."
That practice may be paying off.
The Houston Chronicle's Jonathan Feigen wrote that, "He worked on adding strength to compete inside and said he worked to become more consistent with his three-point touch to give [Dwight] Howard more room to work inside."
In short, Jones is working to fit in. That's the benefit of having spent a season alongside Howard, James Harden and point guard Patrick Beverley. Jones has a firm concept of what it means to "fit in" and what it takes to make his teammates better.
Disrupting that familiarity makes little sense when the Rockets are attempting to build upon a highly successful season.
Keeping Pace
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According to Hollinger's Team Statistics, the Houston Rockets played with the fifth-highest pace in the league last season—and the very highest among teams qualifying for the playoffs.
Tempo is a central component of this team's identity, and personnel has a lot to do with that.
Put simply, Terrence Jones' ability to run the floor makes him a natural fit at the power forward position. He's more mobile than Donatas Motiejunas and assures Houston every opportunity to take advantage of an offense that privileges quick shots.
Before the Kentucky product was selected by the Rockets in the 2012, DraftExpress.com's Matt Kamalsky wrote that, "Jones has everything you look for in a NBA forward physically, even if he could be considered a tad undersized for the power forward position."
"He runs the floor like a small forward," added Kamalsky, "plays above the rim in traffic, makes fluid moves off the dribble and has the package of tools to defend multiple positions at the NBA level."
Early into the 2013-14 campaign, Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman echoed that sentiment, suggesting that, "In 30-plus minutes, you can expect Jones to end up with at least one or two fast-break buckets a game."
To be sure, Jones' quickness, athleticism and versatility all bode well for Houston too. But it's that basic foot speed and solid handling ability that make him such a dynamic threat in the open court.
That's a virtue this run-and-gun operation can't pass up.
The Upside
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Terrence Jones won't turn 23 until January.
Absent the acquisition of a decidedly superior option, it's hard to imagine a good reason for stunting an evolution that's already begun following a promising trajectory. That's no way to develop talent.
As RealGM's Jonathan Tjarks argued back in Dec. 2013, "Going forward, the sky is the limit to how good he can be."
That's not much of an overstatement.
Increased playing time may account for Jones' increased production in his second season, but consider his improved shooting. After making 45.7 percent of his field-goal attempts (including 26.3 percent from three-point range) in 2012-13, he made 54.2 percent of those attempts (including 30.7 percent from beyond the arc).
That's a trend most teams could get behind.
Physical tools have never been a problem for Jones. So the development of his skills and shooting prowess suggest he's well on his way to bigger and better things.
Given the difficulties Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey had in landing star talent this summer, there's something to be said for pursuing the in-house route. There's no guarantee Jones will ever be an All-Star, but—at the moment—he seems to have a much better chance than Donatas Motiejunas.
Donatas Motiejunas Isn't Ready
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For all the reasons to like Terrence Jones, this conversation doesn't make much sense without also considering the alternative. Even if you aren't sold on Jones, is there any compelling argument for starting Donatas Motiejunas in his place?
Probably not.
Like Jones, Motiejunas is entering his third season. Unlike Jones, however, he didn't accrue nearly as much playing time last season. In just 15.4 minutes per contest, the 24-year-old averaged 5.5 points and 3.6 rebounds.
The bigger warning sign is that Motiejunas' shooting efficiency actually regressed last season—from a rookie mark of 45.5 percent to a sophomore effort of 44.3 percent. And after making 28.9 percent of his three-point attempts as a rookie, he made just 25 percent of those attempts last season.
Granted, these aren't precipitous declines. But they certainly aren't improvements either.
Nor did Motiejunas put on a show during FIBA World Cup competition in Spain. Through nine games, he averaged just 7.4 points and four rebounds in 17.3 minutes per contest. Five Lithuanian teammates averaged more points.
While Jones' career is clearly trending in the right direction, Motiejunas has some kinks to work out.
That doesn't mean he can't (or shouldn't) be an integral part of Houston's rotation. It just means Kevin McHale and Co. should probably hit the breaks on any talk of demoting Jones. This would be an entirely different conversation were there another option who was ready to step in from day one.
Motiejunas doesn't appear to be that option, at least not yet.
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