DeAndre Jordan's 2014-15 Campaign Will Determine Los Angeles Clippers' Direction
The Los Angeles Clippers are ready to go as far as DeAndre Jordan can take them.
Sure, there are other pieces to the puzzle, but this franchise's fate—both for the 2014-15 campaign and beyond—is strongly tied to Jordan's ability to protect the paint, clean the glass and provide some type of positive at the offensive end.
He is the defensive complement to the offensive wizardry of superstars Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Whether Jordan can be a championship-caliber third wheel is still up for debate, though, and the question needs answering by the time he hits the unrestricted free-agent market next summer.
With the Clippers attempting to leap from good to great and Jordan waging a similar war on his own, the futures of both will be decided this season. L.A. isn't a championship favorite, but it has all the weaponry needed to pose a serious threat to the handful of teams still blocking its path.
For both Jordan and the Clippers, this will be a season of self-discovery.
The team, winners of 113 regular-season games over the past two seasons, hasn't fully established itself with the NBA's elites. The Clippers have made three straight playoff appearances but won a total of two series over that stretch.
Yet their resume still has some of the common marks of greatness.
They have a superstar pair as dynamic as any duo in the league. Both Griffin (third) and Paul (seventh) finished in the top seven of the last season's MVP voting, becoming just the fourth set of teammates to do so in the last 10 years, via ESPN Los Angeles' Arash Markazi.
The Clippers finished tied for fourth with 23 road victories. Their net-efficiency rating of plus-7.3 points per 100 possessions trailed only that of the world champion San Antonio Spurs.
But this isn't a great team, or at least it hasn't looked like one when it has needed to the most.
Something has been holding the Clippers back. Whatever it was, it could be gone now.
Between last offseason's coaching swap (from Vinny Del Negro to Doc Rivers) to this one's welcome regime change (Microsoft executive Steve Ballmer purchasing the team from the disgraced Donald Sterling), the dominoes have been dropping for a full-fledged title run.
This roster still has its limitations, though, and the core isn't as young as some people would think. There's a sense of urgency surrounding this team, or at least there should be.
"There’s a danger in assuming that the past few seasons—positively script-flipping though they’ve been for a franchise long considered a league laughingstock—mean happy days are here to stay," wrote Bleacher Report's Jim Cavan.
Typical health risks aside, nothing threatens this franchise's standing quite like Jordan's impending free agency.
However, it isn't easy figuring out where the most damage would be done: paying a premium to keep him around or letting him walk for nothing.
Whether Jordan stays or goes next summer, he is going to put pen to paper on a significant contract. In fact, Bleacher Report's Michael Pina opined that the big man is sure to receive a max-money offer from someone:
"At least one of the NBA's 30 teams (including the Clippers) will most likely lob a maximum contract in his direction. Wondering whether the flawed but effective big man will receive a huge offer is a waste of time. Jordan is a clear-cut starter with playoff experience and Defensive Player of the Year potential. He’ll finish the 2014-15 season with seven years of experience under his belt, and he will still be three years away from his 30th birthday.
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Jordan is limited, but last season, his first under Rivers, he found a way to deliver elite-level production despite his deficiencies.
Rivers did two critical things for Jordan: 1) He challenged the big man to take ownership of the defensive end and 2) he didn't let his offensive flaws dictate his floor time. With more than a 10-minutes-per-game increase from his 2012-13 playing time (35.0, up from 24.5), Jordan set out to live up to the Defensive Player of the Year hype Rivers created shortly after his arrival, via Clippers.com's Eric Patten.
By season's end, Jordan had nearly made Rivers look prophetic. Jordan finished third in the voting for the most coveted piece of defensive hardware, two spots lower than Rivers felt he deserved, via ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss:
Jordan led the league in defensive rebounds (783), total rebounds (1,114) and rebounds per game (13.6). He ranked second in total blocks (203), third in blocks per game (2.5), second in total rebound percentage (21.6) and third in defensive win shares (5.8).
He had never had a better season both in terms of efficiency (18.2 PER) and overall impact (11.1 win shares). And he enjoyed his breakout despite tying the second-lowest field-goal-attempts-per-36-minutes average of his career (6.5).
The defensive fuse that Rivers lit sparked something inside of Jordan. He grabbed the keys to the Clippers defense and never let go.
"The onus is on me," Jordan said, via Jordan Heimer of ESPN.com. "I like that challenge. When something goes wrong they yell at me, because that's my end of the floor. ... Sometimes it may not even be my fault, but I need to know what happened."
He made sure his significance was felt on the stat sheet.
Despite a free-throw stroke that doesn't even grade out as functional (career 42.5 percent) and an offensive range defined by his reach, his defense was so good that his floor time was nearly as valuable as Paul's and Griffin's, via NBA.com.
| Griffin | 111.2 | 101.6 | 9.6 | 104.7 | 103.3 | 1.4 |
| Jordan | 111.5 | 102.3 | 9.2 | 104.0 | 101.4 | 2.6 |
| Paul | 111.6 | 100.1 | 11.6 | 106.6 | 104.6 | 2.0 |
Jordan's importance is impossible to overlook, and Rivers—who serves as both coach and president of the Clippers—has never hidden his view of the bouncy big man.
"He can single-handedly change a game with his defense," Rivers said of Jordan, via Markazi. "There's five guys, and that number maybe too high, that can do that single-handedly with their size and athleticism and he's one of them."
Clearly, L.A. plans on re-signing him, right?
Well, it's not that simple.
"Re-signing Jordan on the open market will push the Clippers and new owner Steve Ballmer deep into the luxury tax," wrote CBS Sports' Zach Harper. "They're slated to be $2.6 million over the tax in 2014-15, but with $71 million already committed for 2015-16, the luxury tax hit to keep Jordan will be significant."
The Big Three model is hard to sustain. Just ask the Miami Heat.
It's tough finding enough money for everyone, and the Clippers have already committed major coin to Paul and Griffin. Assuming L.A.'s superstars play out their contracts, the two will take home a combined $166 million over the next four seasons.
Is there any chance that leaves enough for Jordan?
That answer may depend on how this front office really feels about this core's championship potential.
The Clippers won't be able to replace Jordan with an impact piece right away. Even without contract options included, they have $63.3 million on the 2015-16 payroll already. And losing a season to wait around for more funds to clear up hardly seems like an option when Paul will celebrate his 30th birthday before next offseason rolls around.
If L.A. wants to stay in the title chase, it needs to keep Jordan around, even if that means overpaying to do so.
But it needs to realistically assess itself before crossing that bridge. Spending large to keep a great team intact is one thing, but heavily investing in a group that maxes out at something less could set this franchise back for years.
The Clippers are at a crossroads, and Jordan's on-court performance will decide which move they should make.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via ShamSports.com.
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