Colts Good Enough to Win Division, but Still Far from Championship Team

Chuck Pagano and the Indianapolis Colts have spent three offseasons "Building the Monster."

With overhauled personnel and new-look coordinators, Pagano intended to build a snarling, nasty defense like the kind he oversaw in Baltimore and pair it with a power-running offense that could possess the ball, dictate tempo and keep the defense in great position.

In the midst of Pagano's third season, the Colts team he's built looks stunningly like the one he inherited: an inconsistent, toothless defense, a versatile but not reliable run game, a few talented pass-catchers and stone cold stud of a franchise quarterback making up for everyone else's flaws.

Unlike his predecessors, though, Pagano doesn't seem to know who's keeping him employed. He and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton's stubborn insistence on building the offense on the shoulders of running backs who can't carry the load is just limiting quarterback Andrew Luck.

Pagano's defense is a bigger and stronger than many of the Manning-era Colts teams, but a dearth of athleticism and talent leaves them helpless to stop "satellite players" who excel in space.

General manager Ryan Grigson's scattershot free-agency strategies and questionable use of draft picks have left the Colts in NFL purgatory: good enough to contend every year, but hopelessly behind the dynasties at the top of the AFC.

On Monday Night Football in Week 2, all of these problems came home to roost—and a thin, plodding, unfocused Colts team snatched a brutal home defeat from the jaws of victory.

Offensive Offense

For about a quarter and a half in the middle of Monday's game against the Philadelphia Eagles, the NFL-loving world finally saw the Colts offense as Hamilton imagines it.

The offensive line was opening holes in the run game. Tailback Ahmad Bradshaw was chewing up yards on the edges and in the passing game. Lo and behold, tailback Trent Richardson was gashing the Eagles with strong north-south runs. Luck wasn't having his best game, but it didn't matter:

Richardson, especially, looked like a changed man. He ended the game with 79 rushing yards—a career high for him as a member of the Colts, per Pro-Football-Reference.com—on 21 carries, for an acceptable 3.8 yards-per-carry average. His long run of 15 yards was his longest since Week 15 of 2013. Richardson even got involved in the passing game, catching a short pass and breaking it open for 16 yards.

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Then, on the first play after the Eagles cut the Colts' lead to seven, Richardson lost the ball. The Eagles recovered Richardson's second fumble of the day, and he transformed from workhorse back to goat.

Taking over on the Indianapolis 26, the Eagles needed only five plays to score the tying touchdown. Luck led an answering touchdown drive, regaining the Colts' seven-point lead. After the Colts defense got a big three-and-out, though, Luck had a perfect opportunity to bury the Eagles for good.

Instead, Luck turned it over. With just over five minutes left in the game, receiver T.Y. Hilton was pushed to the ground and the Luck pass intended for him sailed into the arms of Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins.

The Colts didn't score another point.

Defensive Defense

Already down primary pass-rusher Robert Mathis, the Colts lost defensive end Arthur Jones just before halftime.

The difference in the defense was obvious. The Eagles scored just six points before Jones went down, and 24 after. Trying to shut down the Eagles with a skeleton crew, the Colts weren't able to rush the passer or stop the run.

Nick Foles wasn't sacked at all on 37 dropbacks, and Eagles tailbacks LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles combined for 105 yards on the ground and two touchdowns. Their very solid 4.38 average yards-per-carry figure was effective enough, but Sproles shredded the Colts in the screen game.

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His seven catches for 152 yards led all receivers and his 51-yard catch-and-run in the fourth quarter didn't just immediately capitalize on Luck's sole mistake—it set up the touchdown that tied the game.

Just after getting a crucial stop, the Colts defense completely collapsed: The Sproles screen was followed on the next play by a Foles touchdown pass to Jeremy Maclin, which was followed by an easy two-minute drill, which ended in a game-winning field goal.

If Pagano's built a monster, it's still lying on the operating table, waiting for a bolt of lightning.

The Prognosis

After dropping games to the Eagles and Denver Broncos, the Colts are 0-2, tied with the miserable Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South cellar.

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The good news is, 1-1 was probably the best the Colts could have hoped for from this two-game stretch, and they have two eminently winnable games against the Jaguars and Tennessee Titans coming up. The Houston Texans lead the division at 2-0 and next take on the foundering New York Giants, but after that have two tough games against the Buffalo Bills and at the Dallas Cowboys.

It's entirely possible that by the time Colts meet the Texans in Week 6, the Colts would only need to win to pull into a tie for the division lead, with a much better division record and the head-to-head advantage.

It's a long season, and the Colts have way too much talent (and too much Luck) to be written off completely. Until Pagano and Hamilton stop trying to use their speedboat like a tugboat, though, the offense will never reach its potential—and these Colts won't ever win a championship.