Chicago Bulls, Jimmy Butler Facing Future Sooner Than You Think

Jimmy Butler’s future is arriving sooner than most of us are ready for. Next summer, he’ll be a restricted free agent, so long as the Bulls offer him the $3 million qualifying offer—a virtual guarantee.

Butler came of age quickly with the Chicago Bulls. Thrust into a starting spot as a sophomore after Richard Hamilton’s repeat injuries in the 2012-13 season, he became a playoff-ready defensive warrior before our eyes, clocking memorable performances against Kobe Bryant and LeBron James, among others.

Butler’s gritty style, cut from the blueprint of Tom Thibodeau’s league-influencing system, has since come to be a culture-defining presence for the Bulls and fans in Chicago. Averaging a whopping 38.7 minutes per game as the anchor to Thibodeau’s perimeter stronghold in 2013-14, Butler tied with Carmelo Anthony for most time per contest in all of the league. Butler won All-Defensive Second Team honors for the year. 

But while Butler’s defense and intangible hustle are unquestionable strengths, plenty of doubt remains about his abilities on offense. After shooting 38 percent on three-pointers in 2012-13, Butler dropped all the way down to 28 during his most recent campaign. From Kevin Ferrigan of CBS Sports:

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That 356 attempt figure, as it turns out, is not a significant enough sample to tell us all that much about how good a shooter Butler really is. The 105 attempts he took in 2012-13, when he looked so good, is clearly an even smaller sample, and thus has even more potential to be the result of statistical noise. It turns out that to have a meaningful sense of how good a three point shooter a player truly is, you need to see at least 750 three point attempts from them, according to research done by Darryl Blackport of Nylon Calculus.

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Three-point shooting isn’t the only factor that goes into measuring offensive worth, but it’s a huge one for Butler. The Bulls need crack shooters to put around Derrick Rose, Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah, who are sure to be their top playmakers. Butler’s best chance at contributing is to hone his catch-and-shoot capacities, and there’s no jumper more important than the three.

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

If Butler hopes to get a lot more than the $3 million qualifying offer the Bulls will need in order to retain him next summer, he’ll have to do better than 28 percent from beyond the arc. It’s unlikely he’ll have many chances at creating shots for himself next to Rose, Noah and Gasol, so his ability to stretch the defense is paramount.

And while Butler is one of the top perimeter defenders in the game, he gets a lot less credit for that status under Thibodeau, who enhances every defender he’s handed. Outside of the coach’s steely, domineering system, it’s unclear whether Butler is as valuable.

In other words: Butler is worth more to the Bulls than he is to other teams. A classic “culture guy,” his continuity, familiarity and comfort with both the bodily and interpersonal standards of Thibodeau’s ever-intense locker room wouldn’t necessarily transfer over to other teams. But in Chicago, Butler is a pillar.

That’s why the most likely result is Butler and the Bulls’ front office working out a deal that behooves both sides. Like Tony Allen, the “Grindfather” defensive maniac who’s found a home and an indelible sense of identity with the Memphis Grizzlies, Butler has entrenched himself as a Bull in ways that extend well beyond the box score. And it’s been just as beneficial for him as it has for his team.

Allen's new contract in Memphis pays him just over $15 million in three years—that's approximately the market worth of a one-way specialists like Butler and him. Fairly or not, defense and cultural leadership aren't as highly regarded as efficient, high-volume scoring. If other teams come after Butler with much higher bids than the Bulls, expect Chicago's cutoff to be no higher than about $7 million per year. That is, unless Butler turns head with his offense in 2014-15.

Whether Butler can collect more points and shoot his price up in 2015 remains a mystery. But, either way, it’d be surprising to see him leave Chicago, where he's more valued than anywhere.