Panthers vs. Dolphins: Breaking Down Miami's Game Plan

The Carolina Panthers travel south to face the Miami Dolphins in Week 12.

The Panthers boast a 7-3 record after having strung together an impressive streak of six consecutive victories. The Dolphins have struggled to stay afloat, amassing a 5-5 record with a tendency to put themselves behind the 8-ball and then fight their way out of it the following week.

The Panthers find themselves hoping recent trends continue. They hope their string of six wins becomes a string of seven wins. They hope the Dolphins once again blow their chance of climbing from an even record into winning territory, just as they did in Week 8 and again in Week 10. The Dolphins, embroiled in controversy, will look to break that pattern.

Here we will preview the matchup between the two opponents, as we attempt to see which team has a better chance of getting their wish.

When the Dolphins have the ball

The Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL through Week 11. They have allowed a mere 13.5 points per game. They are also top-five in yards allowed per game, as well as average yards allowed per play.

The Panthers have strong players at every level of the defense; however, the strength of the unit starts up front where Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy man the left- and right-end positions, respectively. Between the two, Johnson is a slightly more consistent pass-rush threat, whereas Hardy is the better all-around player.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Johnson ranks third among qualified 4-3 defensive ends in total Pass Rush Productivity. Hardy ranks seventh out of the pool of 35 players. For comparison, Dolphins star pass-rusher Cameron Wake ranks fourth in the group and Olivier Vernon 25th.

The Dolphins may catch a break this week, as Johnson sprained his MCL during the recent Monday Night Football game against the New England Patriots. His availability for this weekend’s game against the Dolphins is unknown, but the general tenor around the Panthers suggests that he is unlikely to play.

If the Panthers are forced to go without Johnson, Carolina may have a difficult time replacing him. The team had rookie undrafted free agent Wes Horton take snaps against the Patriots in place of Johnson last week, and Horton did not play well.

The Panthers have a backup pass-rusher in Mario Addison who has proven highly effective at getting to the quarterback; however, Addison has rushed the passer almost exclusively from the right side since coming into the league a year ago. On the few occasions he has rushed from the left side, he has not been effective at all. The same is true of right defensive end Hardy, who has consistently not been as efficient rushing the passer from the left as the right throughout his career.

That means the Panthers could be forced to choose between several unattractive options in replacing Johnson if he is forced to sit this weekend. That could be a key development, as Dolphins right tackle Tyson Clabo has allowed the most sacks in the NFL through 10 games.

The Panthers may be forced to blitz more in order to fill in the missing pass rush that would usually be supplied by Johnson. This will not necessarily avail them well, either. The Panthers defense is not a strong blitzing defense.

The Panthers have allowed 46-of-75 passing for 541 yards, four touchdowns and only two interceptions while blitzing quarterbacks. They have allowed 180-of-262 passing for 1,746 yards, four touchdowns and 11 interceptions when sitting back in coverage and allowing their four-man front to do the work of rushing the passer.

It is well to note that the Panthers may also be celebrating the catching of a similar break in Dolphins center Mike Pouncey’s mysterious gall bladder ailment. Pouncey missed the game against the San Diego Chargers in Week 11 and did not practice with the team this Wednesday.

This could be a brutal development for the Dolphins because, with the drafting of defensive tackles Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short, the Panthers have become just as strong in the middle of the defensive line as they have been on the edges.

Lotulelei leads all qualified defensive tackles (regardless of base alignment) in Pro Football Focus’ Stop Percentage statistic, which relates defensive stops made against the run game as a percentage of run snaps. In applying the previously mentioned Pass Rush Productivity metrics to defensive tackles, Kawann Short ranks 15th out of 34 qualified defensive tackles. Lotulelei ranks 18th.

The Dolphins are extremely weak in the middle of the offensive line with Pouncey potentially out of the game. Right guard John Jerry has been a weakness all season. Nate Garner is not a natural center, and left guard Sam Brenner is a rookie undrafted free agent. The San Diego Chargers lacked the talent up front to take advantage of this potential weakness; however, the Panthers have enough talent to expose the weakness if it is there.

Where the Dolphins may really miss Pouncey is when attempting to run the football against Carolina’s linebackers. Inside linebacker Luke Kuechly has become one of the very best defensive players in the game. His Run Stop Percentage on Pro Football Focus is third out of a group of 39 qualified inside linebackers.

In college, Kuechly showed a weakness to mobile offensive linemen that could get out to the second level and block him. Without Pouncey to do that, Kuechly will have free rein to impose his will on Miami’s rushing attack.

Yet ground defense is not even Kuechly’s specialty. Coming out of Boston College, he was one of the most gifted coverage linebackers I had ever evaluated for the draft. With five interceptions in his first 26 games as a pro, Kuechly has not disappointed.

Alen Dumonjic of TheScore.com wrote a detailed and informative piece on why Kuechly may be the best in the game. In it you can find the following quote from quarterback Tom Brady:

"

He just has a knack for knowing where the ball is going to be, and that’s hard to teach. I’ve played guys that had that same knack at linebacker. Everybody is different players, everybody has different strengths and weaknesses but when guys are around the ball, making tackles, making tipped passes and covering guys and they’re never out of the play, they’re never fooled. There are guys you play against like Ed Reed, who are great players, Ray Lewis, Zach Thomas, guys that I’ve had the chance to play against that have just a knack for the ball and he has a great knack for the football. That’s a great trait for a defensive player.

"

The Dolphins will be forced to rely on wide receiver Brian Hartline in this game, as the Panthers are starting a rookie undrafted free agent, Melvin White, at the right corner spot. White is a very lengthy player; however, as I evaluated him live during a week of practices in preparation for the East-West Shrine game, his hips are not quick and he may have trouble dealing with the precise route-running of Brian Hartline.

When the Panthers have the ball

The Miami Dolphins defense has yet to be tested this season by a quarterback with Cam Newton’s unique elusiveness and running potential. To be fair, there are not many players in the NFL with Newton’s ability.

This game will put a lot of pressure on middle linebacker Dannell Ellerbe to contain Newton’s scrambling ability. Ellerbe was a key factor during last year’s Super Bowl between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers. San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick has similar running ability to Cam Newton’s.

In the NFC Divisional Round against the Green Bay Packers, he ran 16 times for 178 yards with two touchdowns. The Ravens knew that they could not prevent a running Kaepernick from gaining yards on the scramble if he broke free of the defensive line, but they needed to make sure they could limit the damage done in those instances.

That is where Ellerbe’s range became a key to the game. He chased Kaepernick out to the sidelines on occasions when Kaepernick scrambled, effectively putting a cap on the total amount of damage Kaepernick could do on scrambling plays. The Dolphins will count on the same from Ellerbe against Newton.

Whether the Dolphins will get that kind of effort out of the entire defense is a different question. The only quarterback the Dolphins faced in 2013 with elusiveness approaching that of Newton’s was Andrew Luck, who scrambled four times against Miami for a total of 38 yards.

The Dolphins have faced three other players with the kind of open-field elusiveness you see in a Cam Newton, though it may sound counter-intuitive since Newton is so much bigger than all three players. Those elusive players are Darren Sproles, Jacquizz Rodgers and Giovani Bernard.

Unfortunately, according to data gathered in various places on the Pro Football Focus website, the three players combined for 193 yards on 31 carries. What is worse, the defense combined for a staggering total of 15 missed tackles against the three players. Missed tackles have been a problem for Miami's defense, and Cam Newton has the ability to create a lot of missed tackles.

The Dolphins will likely attack Newton with a full complement of blitzes. Newton has been blitzed 144 times this year on only 348 total pass snaps, so he is used to it; however, his passer rating drops from 94.8 when not blitzed to only 87.3 when blitzed, and additionally he goes from being sacked on 4.9 percent of snaps to being sacked on 12.5 percent of snaps.

The blitz has also shown an ability to contain Newton’s scrambling ability, as he has only been able to scramble for positive yardage on 4.2 percent of blitzed snaps versus 6.9 percent of pass snaps where he has not faced a blitz.

Much will be made of the matchup between Carolina wide receiver Steve Smith and his familiar foe, Dolphins corner Brent Grimes. The two played against one another for years within the NFC South division; however, the two rarely faced one another as they played on different sides of the field.

Unless the Dolphins choose to have Grimes shadow Smith in the game this weekend, the players should once again see very little of one another in coverage. It is interesting to note that, according to data gathered in various places on the Pro Football Focus website, on the few occasions the two have faced one another, Grimes has only allowed Smith to tally five catches for 54 yards on nine total attempts. Grimes also managed to intercept one of those nine attempts.

Conclusion

In some ways, the Dolphins have been in this position before. The team hosted a scary-looking 6-2 Cincinnati Bengals football team in a game few gave Miami a chance of winning. The Dolphins emerged victorious from that game.

That game, however, had some unique circumstances.

It was a Thursday Night Football game, which meant the week was shortened by three days for both ball clubs. Historically, those extremely short weeks favor the home team considerably. Additionally, Bengals interior defensive lineman Geno Atkins left the game very early in the contest, before he had an opportunity to wreak havoc on the middle of Miami’s line.

The Dolphins may catch a break with defensive end Johnson potentially out of the game; however, they should fear the middle of the Panthers defense more than the edges, as players like Star Lotulelei, Kawann Short and Luke Kuechly have the ability to dominate and control the line of scrimmage, as well as the middle of the field. This will ultimately make life very difficult for Miami, especially if Mike Pouncey is forced to miss another game.

On the other side, the last time the Miami Dolphins faced a quarterback with Cam Newton’s unique running ability, they allowed Colin Kaepernick to break off a 50-yard touchdown run that sealed the game for the 49ers late in the 2012 season. Some of the players on the Dolphins defense have changed since then, but the tendency to miss tackles has only increased since one year ago.

In order to win this game, Miami must get key performances out of their most reliable players, including the likes of Cameron Wake, Jared Odrick, Paul Soliai, Randy Starks, Brent Grimes, Brian Hartline and Ryan Tannehill.