Jimmer Fredette Is as Productive as Ray Allen: An Inconvenient Truth

Jimmer Fredette was mentioned on Monday by Eamonn Brennan at ESPN.com as having the potential to become one of the best NBA players to ever emerge from the Mountain West Conference.  Any smidgen of praise for the former BYU star triggers a nasty torrent of misinformed comments from the Jimmer haters.

As a result, I just wanted to remind all of the Jimmer haters of one inconvenient truth:

Jimmer Fredette has been as good as Ray Allen this season.

If Jimmer sucks, so does Ray Allen. It’s true.

Statistically speaking, the per-minute productivity of the two players was nearly indistinguishable during the 2012-13 regular season. Fredette and Allen play similar roles for their respective teams by providing scoring off the bench and a lethal three-point threat that keeps defenses honest. They were equally effective filling this role this year.

Because Ray Allen’s 25.8 minutes per game were significantly more than Jimmer’s 14.0, the best way to compare their productivity is by looking at their per-36 minute averages:

Per-36 mins. 2012-2013	PTS	REB	AST	STL	FG%	3PT%	FT%	PER
Jimmer Fredette	18.4	2.6	3.4	1.2	42.1%	41.7%	85.9%	14.6
Ray Allen	15.3	3.8	2.4	1.2	44.9%	41.9%	88.6%	14.7

On a per-36 minute basis this season, Jimmer Fredette led Ray Allen in scoring and assists. Allen was the better rebounder and shot the ball slightly better. Neither player is known as a defensive stopper, so objective offensive metrics represent a fair comparison.

In terms of overall Player Efficiency Rating (PER), the two were nearly identical with Allen posting a 14.7 to Fredette’s 14.6.

Degree of Difficulty

Not only did Jimmer match Ray Allen’s per-minute productivity, he did so with a crazy degree of difficulty.

Ray Allen has the absolutely perfect situation with the Miami Heat. He has a great coach in Erik Spoelstra who knows how to use his players. Miami’s “Big Three” of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh often create wide open looks for a spotting-up Ray Allen. His teammates move the ball, make the extra pass and execute a beautiful offense.

Jimmer Fredette’s Sacramento Kings, on the other hand, run an offense that may have been designed by Bill Cosby’s “Mine! Mine! Mine!” comedy routine. The “Big Three” Kings players who led the team in minutes per game this year were Tyreke Evans, DeMarcus Cousins and—wait for it—John Salmons. They were “coached” (using the term liberally) by Keith Smart. 

Is there a worse situation a young, developing scorer like Jimmer could find himself in than the steaming mess that is the Sacramento Kings?

Um, no.

Despite the dysfunction that surrounded Jimmer Fredette in Sacramento, he still managed to put up Ray Allen-type numbers while playing a Ray Allen-type role in a vastly more difficult environment.

The role Jimmer Fredette and Ray Allen share is coming off the bench to score and hit the three. On a per-36 minute basis, Fredette outscored Allen and equaled him from the three-point line. Ray Allen is not a bad role player, and neither is Jimmer Fredette.

So if you hate Jimmer Fredette, you should also hate Ray Allen.

Sorry for the inconvenient truth.