While a lot of people are betting against the Jets (and deservedly so), they seem to forget that the Bills have been atrocious this season too. What if I told you that the Jets (6-9) actually have a better record than the Bills (5-10). This line is a half-point too high, and that's why I like the Jets as an underdog to beat the spread this week.
Additionally, this Jets team beat the Bills in Week 1 by 20 points.
In fact, the Jets have recently owned this AFC East rivalry. The Jets have won eight of their past nine games against the Bills. Playing at home hasn't helped the Bills much.
They are 1-5 against the spread in their last six home games against the Jets.
One of the biggest reasons for the Bills' lack of success against the Jets has been their quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Rex Ryan simply knows how to pressure Fitzpatrick and have him make ill-advised decisions. Fitzpatrick in his career against the Jets has a 52.4 completion percentage and 70.4 quarterback rating.
He's only beaten them once in seven tries.
Also, Fitzpatrick's worst month in his career is December.
He has a career 17-to-27 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 23 December games, which is why he's only won nine of them. The Bills as a team have also struggled down the stretch in recent years. In fact, under coach Chan Gailey, the Bills are 4-10 against the spread in December and January games.
Now, I hate trusting Mark Sanchez in any sort of way, but you can't deny his play against the Bills. In his last five games against them, he's had a quarterback rating of at least 90. It helps that he's thrown 11 touchdowns and only three interceptions in that span. I know it feels awhile back, but Sanchez's Week 1 start against the Bills was probably his best game the entire season.
Honestly, I'm afraid to bet on the Jets because their recent performances have been nothing short of appalling. But, given their recent dominance against the Bills and the fact that the Bills play terribly in the month of December, I like the Jets as 3.5-point underdogs. In fact, the scary part is, I not only like them to cover, I like the Jets to win this game outright.
Take the underdog and the points in this Week 17 AFC East matchup.