Some of the safest bets in the NFL are against teams riding a wave of optimism and garnering too much of a spread. Very often those teams fall into trap games, and even if they do not lose, they win by a lot less than the spread.
Here are the three safest bets in the NFL in Week 7 if you are taking the underdog and the points.
Here is a matchup that screams trap game and screams backdoor cover. The Redskins beat the Giants twice last year with a much weaker offense. While I would happily take the Giants to win outright, I would be surprised to see them win by a touchdown or more.
The Giants' secondary has significant injury problems and is not going to shut down Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III. I expect to see multiple lead changes and a contested fourth quarter. This game could easily end on a game-winning Eli Manning drive.
If the Giants control the game and are leading by 10 or 14 points in the fourth quarter, I still do not trust them to cover the spread. I'll take the Redskins and a smidgen less than a touchdown.
This game features two teams that really do not like to play defense. The Titans have allowed an average of 421.8 yards per game, while the Bills have given up 429.8 yards per game. This game could easily go either way and is a toss-up in my mind.
The Titans looked better than the Bills last week, but they have had their share of poor games this year. One advantage for the Titans is that the Bills exceedingly weak run defense is an opportunity for Titans running back Chris Johnson to get out of his slump.
This is a hard game to predict, but the extra field goal makes Tennessee the clear choice.
If you tell me you're giving a 10.5 point spread in a division rivalry game, you're going to have a tough time selling me on that. Then when you tell me those two teams have the same record and the favorite has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, you've completely lost me.
What is the safest bet?
The Patriots are the last team in the NFL who I would trust to keep a fourth quarter lead right now. Even if they are up 14 points with time running out, you cannot trust that secondary to avoid the backdoor cover.
This game is going to be ugly and hotly contested. While I would pick the Patriots to win this one outright, the 10.5 point spread is absurd. This game has last-minute field goal written all over it. Give me the Jets and the giant pile of points without hesitation.