NFL: What Are the New York Jets on Pace to Do This Year?
In all sports, statistics carry some value. They don't always tell the story, but players can be very well judged, critiqued, and compared based solely on their numerical performances.
In this article, I look at what Jets starters are on pace to have by the end of Week 17. These types of calculations are very simple, but more than that, inaccurate. I will say which statistics I believe to be inaccurate and why.
Mark Sanchez's Current Stat Line -- 49.7% completion, 1125 pass yards, 8 TDs, 6 INTs
What is he on pace to have? -- 49.7% completion, 3000 pass yards, 21 TDs, 16 INTs
Sanchez, who's stat line is incredibly inconsistent, will likely surpass these expectations. Sanchez runs the play action extremely well, and if the running game can get going, that opens up a totally new section of the playbook.
He's also played some of the elite pass defenses of the NFL in Indianapolis (#2 overall), Pittsburgh (#4 overall), and San Francisco (#5 overall). The Jets later will have four games against some of the worst pass defenses: Miami (#28), New England twice (#29), and Tennessee (#30).
I'm not going to go out and say that Sanchez will break 4500 yards thanks to his performances, but I could see 250 yards in these four games, meaning that in the other six games (JAX, ARI, SEA, STL, BUF, SD), Sanchez would need 875 yards to break the 3000 yard platform.
As well, the injury bug is finally moving away from the Jets receivers, allowing Mark Sanchez is going to a few familiar targets to pass the ball to in Jeff Cumberland, Dustin Keller, Stephen Hill and Jeremy Kerley. I also would not be surprised if the Jets brought back Patrick Turner this season in exchange for Clyde Gates or Jason Hill.
That is how I am going to base my predictions for this one:
Mark Sanchez's Predicted Stat Line -- 54.1% completion, 3341 pass yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs
Tim Tebow's Current Stat Line -- 66.7% completion, 32 pass yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 64 rush yards
What is he on pace to have? -- 66.7% completion, 85 pass yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 170 rush yards
This statistic is a little off as well. Assuming Tim Tebow keeps in this role, it's more likely that he will take shots downfield. As a result, he definitely won't end the season with 85 yards, or a 66.7 completion percentage.
As the Jets begin their lighter schedule, Tebow should receive the same amount of snaps, but once Sanchez's production starts to drop, Tebow will see the field, and he'll be allowed to throw, run or do whatever.
For these reasons, I see Tim Tebow's stats being somewhat great.
Tim Tebow's Projected Stat-Line: 51.4% completion, 246 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 250 rush yards
The Running Backs
Shonn Greene's Current Stat-Line -- 108 carries, 378 rush yards, 3.5 YPC, 4 TDs
What is he on pace to have? -- 288 carries, 1008 rush yards, 3.5 YPC, 11 TDs
Because of one game, Shonn Greene is on pace to be one of the above-average backs in the league, as only 14 backs are on pace to break 1000 rush yards. However, prior to the debacle vs. Indianapolis, Shonn Greene was on pace to have only 695 rush yards on the season.
That's one of the big reasons as to why I find this inaccurate. As the Jets return to a more ground and pound, the defenses they play will likely smash Shonn Greene in the backfield.
The Jets take on the top six run defenses four more times before the end of the season in New England twice (No. 6), Miami (No. 5), and Seattle (No. 2). Something tells me that Shonn Greene will not be able to power through those defenses.
Shonn Greene's Predicted Stat-Line -- 253 carries, 831 rush yards, 3.3 YPC, 9 TDs
Joe McKnight's Current Stat-Line -- 10 carries, 90 rush yards, 9.0 YPC, 0 TDs
What is he on pace to have? -- 27 carries, 240 rush yards, 9.0 YPC, 0 TDs
Joe McKnight is a poor man's version of Leon Washington. He's absolutely dynamite on the kick return, showing more speed and elusiveness than Leon Washington, but his home-run ability does not match Washington's.
McKnight finally made a huge run, 61 yards, against Indianapolis. Coupled in with a game-changing kick return touchdown, the Jets would be foolish to keep him on the bench any more than they do now.
His style of play completely contrasts the bruising style of Shonn Greene, and as a result, serves as the perfect contrast. Think Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis or LenDale White and Chris Johnson or Michael Bush and Darren McFadden.
Give him five to seven carries a game, no matter the success. Leon Washington averaged 5 carries per game as a Jet, with Thomas Jones starting. You know what happened? Jones hit 1000 rush yards and Washington had 800 all-purpose yards (with a 5.9 YPC) coupled in with 8 rushing and receiving touchdowns as well as a kick-return touchdown.
I don't think that McKnight has the same elusiveness as Washington, but that's not going to stop him from having slightly similar success. If he's played:
Joe McKnight's Predicted Stat-Line: 60 carries, 333 rush yards, 5.6 YPC, 21 catches, 280 yards, 7 TDs
Jeremy Kerley's Current Stat-Line -- 18 receptions, 29 targets, 315 yards, 2 TDs
What is he on pace to have? -- 48 receptions, 77 targets, 840 yards, 5 TDs
Kerley, while on pace to have a pretty strong season, should far exceed these calculations. With Santonio Holmes out of the lineup, Kerley becomes Sanchez's No. 2 receiver behind Dustin Keller. He should definitely see a lot more targets.
Because of the Jets' light schedule towards the end of the season, Sanchez will have more accurate afternoons where he'll be given time to throw, receivers to throw to, and the opportunities to throw.
As a result, I see Jeremy Kerley being one of the prime recipients of Sanchez's target and furthermore, the lack of difficulty of the remaining opponents will allow Sanchez to throw a much more crisp pass to an open receiver. Look for Kerley to love this treatment.
Jeremy Kerley's Projected Stat-Line -- 63 receptions, 91 targets, 1002 yards, 5 TDs
Stephen Hill's Current Stat-Line -- 8 receptions, 18 targets, 112 yards, 3 TDs
What is he on pace to have? -- 21 receptions, 48 targets, 299 receiving yards, 8 TDs
If Stephen Hill only ends up with 20 receptions for 300 yards, I will be thoroughly disappointed with his output for year 1. Yes, he is playing in a different system than the triple option at Georgia Tech, but does that mean he does not need to step up after an injury to the top Jets receiver?
The tall, speedy receiving option should be able to develop some sort of rapport with Sanchez by the end of the season. With more passes coming in the next few weeks, look for Stephen Hill to be one of the prime recipients of a change in strategy.
Stephen Hill's Projected Stat-Line -- 44 receptions, 72 targets, 624 receiving yards, 8 TDs
Chaz Schilens's Current Stat-Line -- 12 receptions, 16 targets, 121 yards, 0 TDs
What is he on pace to have? -- 32 receptions, 42 targets, 323 yards, 0 TDs
This is actually pretty accurate. I'm greatly impressed with Schilens so far this season, but he's not going to start above Hill. As a No. 3 receiver, Shilens should be happy with this efficient catch percentage and targets.
Chaz Schilens's Projected Stat-Line -- 30 receptions, 44 targets, 347 yards, 2 TDs
The Tight Ends
Dustin Keller/Jeff Cumberland's Current Stat-Line -- 15 receptions, 27 targets, 152 yards, 1 TD
What are they on pace to have? -- 40 receptions, 72 targets, 405 yards, 3 TDs
No more LaDainian Tomlinson. No more Santonio Holmes. Dustin Keller now takes the reins as Sanchez's safety target. Look for Sanchez and Keller to continue their strong relationship even with Keller's shortened season.
Dustin Keller's Projected Stat-Line -- 63 receptions, 99 targets, 671 yards, 7 TDs
The Offensive Line
D'Brickashaw Ferguson -- 1.5 sacks allowed
What is he on pace to have? -- 4 sacks allowed
Not a bad season, and a pretty accurate prediction based off previous outputs.
Matt Slauson -- 0 sacks allowed
What is he on pace to have? -- 0 sacks allowed
He definitely won't be able to keep that up, unless Vlad Ducasse replaces him in the lineup.
Nick Mangold -- 1.25 sacks allowed
What is he on pace to have? -- 3 sacks allowed
It would tie his career worst, but I see something like this as the Jets decide to pass more.
Brandon Moore -- 1.25 sacks allowed
What is he on pace to have? -- 3 sacks allowed
He's already allowed more sacks than he did last year throughout the entire season. Nevertheless, he's still solid.
Austin Howard -- 2 sacks allowed
What is he on pace to have? -- 5 sacks allowed
For an undrafted free agent journeyman, this is incredible. Of course, I think the Jets need to upgrade in the offseason, but for now, he is a serviceable starter.
The Defensive Line
Sione Pouha's Current Stat-Line -- 8 tackles, 1 sack, 0 FF
What is he on pace to have? -- 22 tackles, 3 sacks, 0 FF
This is a somewhat inaccurate prediction. As a nose tackle, he won't have much opportunity to be credited with sacks, but he should end up with more stuffs as the Jets run defense tightens. Look for more tackles as he suits up for more games.
Sione Pouha's Predicted Stat-Line -- 37 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 2 FFs
Mo Wilkerson's Current Stat-Line -- 26 tackles, 1 sack, 0 FF
What is he on pace to have? -- 70 tackles, 3 sacks, 0 FF
These stats are padded by Wilkerson's astounding 10-tackle performance earlier this season. He probably won't have so many tackles, but he will have far more sacks as the Jets work the 4-3 and 3-4 and 46 schemes more.
Mo Wilkerson's Predicted Stat-Line -- 61 tackles, 6 sacks, 1 FF
Quinton Coples' Current Stat-Line -- 10 tackles, 2 sacks, 0 FF
What is he on pace to have? -- 27 tackles, 6 sacks, 0 FF
As Coples moves closer to the starting lineup in the 3-4 and the 4-3, he should rack up sacks rather quickly, just as he did against Indianapolis. For those reasons, his tackles and sacks totals are deflated.
Quinton Coples' Predicted Stat-Line -- 44 tackles, 7 sacks, 1 FF
David Harris' Current Stat-Line -- 49 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 FF, 1 FR
What is he on pace to have? -- 131 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 FF, 3 FRs
I would be happy to see David Harris come up with 130 tackles. Realistically, I see him picking off a pass or two, getting two or three sacks, and not reaching 130 tackles. Still an amazing season from him.
David Harris' Projected Stat-Line -- 118 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 FF, 2 FRs, 2 INTs
Bart Scott's Current Stat-Line -- 30 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 FF, 0 FR
What is he on pace to have? -- 80 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 FF, 0 FR
Statistics tell a pretty accurate story with regards to Scott. He is not consistent, he can be very good if he tries, and he can be piss-poor if he doesn't. He must be upgraded, even with the 80-tackle season that he's on pace for.
Bart Scott's Predicted Stat-Line -- 64 tackles, 1 sack, 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 INT
Calvin Pace's Current Stat-Line -- 24 tackles, 1 sack, 0 FF, 0 FR
What is he on pace to have? -- 64 tackles, 3 sacks, 0 FF, 0 FR
He doesn't always get the credit he deserves, but overall, he should not be starting at OLB for a 3-4 team anymore. He just doesn't fit the bill and he doesn't get the job done on a consistent basis.
His lack of pressure is daunting, seeing as how he should still be good for 7-8 sacks a year. Look for him to find a new team next year.
Regarding his stats, they tell a story, and that story is that he's become a very minor factor in this defense, and should not be starting anymore.
Calvin Pace's Projected Stat-Line -- 44 tackles, 2 sacks, 0 FF, 1 FR
Garret McIntyre's Current Stat-Line -- 12 tackles, 2 sacks, 0 FF, 0 FR
What is he on pace to have? -- 28 tackles, 6 sacks, 0 FF, 0 FR
McIntyre is a very strong rotational backer, but he should not be seeing the field as often as he does. He adds youth (and some speed) to the linebacking corps that really lacks in that department. His tackle numbers will be much higher as he logs in more time.
Garret McIntyre's Projected Stat-Line -- 48 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 FF, 0 FR
The Defensive Backs
Antonio Cromartie's Current Stat-Line -- 17 tackles, 3 INTs, 1 TD
What is he on pace to have? -- 45 tackles, 8 INTs, 3 TDs
If a team MVP is given out at the end of the season, it's more than obvious who the recipient should be. Not sure? He held Andre Johnson to 15 receiving yards and manhandled Reggie Wayne (arguably the hottest receiver in the NFL) in back-to-back games.
His interception total is very inflated, even though he should have four at the moment. Look for teams to avoid him as they did with Darrelle Revis, meaning fewer tackles and picks.
Antonio Cromartie's Projected Stat-Line -- 37 tackles, 6 INTs, 1 TD
Kyle Wilson's Current Stat-Line -- 17 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FF, 0 TDs
What is he on pace to have? -- 45 tackles, 3 INTs, 3 FF, 0 TDs
If the Jets didn't have such a big need at cornerback, I couldn't imagine many scenarios where Kyle Wilson would see the field. His stats don't tell the story. As the season goes on, teams will be throwing in his direction, so he better be ready.
Unfortunately, he is burned easily and doesn't cover tightly. As a result, look for more tackles and not so many INTs.
Kyle Wilson's Projected Stat-Line -- 61 tackles, 2 INTs, 2 FF, 0 TDs
Ellis Lankster's Current Stat-Line -- 15 tackles, 1 INT, 0 TDs
What is he on pace to have? -- 40 tackles, 3 INTs, 0 TDs
He's really surprised me as a nickel back. He does get burned at times, but I don't mind seeing him in nickel sets. Look for him to reach those 3 interceptions, although maybe not the 40-tackle mark.
Ellis Lankster's Projected Stat-Line -- 37 tackles, 3 INTs, 0 TDs
Laron Landry's Current Stat-Line -- 38 tackles, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 TD
What is he on pace to have? -- 101 tackles, 3 INTs, 3 FFs, 3 TDs
A 100-tackle free safety on pace to have 3 picks, 3 forced fumbles and 3 touchdowns? This was by far my favorite acquisition of the 2012 offseason and it's been paying dividends.
Although the chances of injury are incredibly high, I would never predict an injury. Look for him to narrowly reach 100 tackles and maybe have an extra pick or two, but not 3 TDs.
Laron Landry's Projected Stat-Line -- 102 tackles, 4 INTs, 2 FFs, 1 TD
Yeremiah Bell's Current Stat-Line -- 42 tackles, 0 INTs, 1 FR
What is he on pace to have? -- 112 tackles, 0 INTs, 3 FRs
Another 100-tackler in the defensive backfield? I think that Yeremiah Bell provides decent leadership in the defensive backfield. He's not very good in coverage, especially 1-on-1, but no safety is that good in that sense. Look for him to barely break 100 tackles and maybe have an interception.
Yeremiah Bell's Projected Stat-Line -- 104 tackles, 1 INT, 2 FRs
Nick Folk's Current Stat-Line -- 7/7 FG, Long 39, 16/16 XP, 0/0 from 50+
What is he on pace to have? -- 19/19 FG, Long 39, 43/43 XP, 0/0 from 50+
He is an incredibly consistent kicker in the first two or three months of the season, but once the weather goes cold, so goes his output.
Nick Folk's Projected Stat-Line -- 21/26 FG, Long 52, 49/49 XP, 1/3 from 50+
Robert Malone's Current Stat-Line -- 32 punts, 46.2 yard average, 11 inside 20, 61 long
What is he on pace to have? -- 85 punts, 46.2 yard average, 30 inside 20, 61 long
Don't jinx it, but the Jets have found themselves a franchise punter. Easily one of the best punters the Jets have had in their 52-year history.
Robert Malone's Projected Stat-Line -- 89 punts, 47.1 yard average, 37 inside 20, 69 long
Joe McKnight's Current Stat-Line -- 15 returns, 29.7 average, 100 long, 1 TD
What is he on pace to have? -- 40 returns, 29.7 average, 100 long, 3 TDs
Ace kick returners are always present on Mike Westhoff's special teams, but I think it is more of great scheming than returning talent. McKnight could very well meet those marks again.
Joe McKnight's Projected Stat-Line -- 43 returns, 27.3 average, 100 long, 2 TDs
So with all that said, what do you guys think about what the Jets are on pace for? Leave a comment with your thoughts, and thanks for reading!