March Madness Field of 65 Projections: Feb. 25

I say it every year, but I will say it again.  The NCAA needs to eliminate the final at-large spot and go back to a 64-team field. 

Every February, the bubble is riddled with mediocre teams that do not deserve to be in the tournament, so why not decrease the at-large invites to 33 and get rid of the play-in game that no one watches anyway?

Do not forget to check out the Schwach Indicator to see how this new evaluation tool is affecting my projections.

Remember, I am not trying to guess how teams will finish the season. I am simply seeding them based on their current résumés.

To that end, teams currently leading their conference receive automatic bids, and everyone else is judged on their at-large profile.

As always, I like to break teams down into three categories. "Wallflowers" are bubble teams. Everyone wants to get into the Big Dance, but not all have the guts to ask a girl out onto the dance floor.

Elite teams are safely in the field, "Dancing with a hottie" and in the middle are the schools that are "Dancing with their sister."

ACC

Dancing with a hottie: North Carolina (No. 1 seed), Duke (2), Clemson (3), and Wake Forest (4)

Dancing with their sister: Florida State (6)

Wallflowers: Boston College (11), Maryland (12), Virginia Tech (second out), and Miami (seventh out)

Maryland pulled off the bubble-team dream by upsetting UNC in College Park on Saturday, thanks in large part to Greivis Vasquez’s triple-double and a questionable out-of-bounds call near the end of regulation.

The victory pushed the Terps to .500 in league play and took the pressure off of Wednesday’s meeting with rival Duke. 

If Maryland can beat NC State and Virginia to finish with eight ACC wins, that should put them into the Big Dance, thanks to victories over Michigan State, Miami, Michigan, and Virginia Tech.

Boston College picked up a big win over a surging Florida State team Tuesday night to solidify its spot in the tournament. 

The Eagles are now 8-6 in conference and finish the regular season with two games against the bottom of the league (at NC State, Georgia Tech).  If they win both of these games, they should be safe.

Losing three in a row in February is never good for a Wallflower. 

Virginia Tech dropped from my field to my "second team out" after losing to Maryland, Virginia, and Florida State.  The Hokies are now 6-6 in conference and have a hellish schedule ahead of them with games against Clemson, Duke, UNC and FSU. 

The upside here is that a pair of wins over these high-caliber teams will be very impressive to the Selection Committee.

Miami took its first step towards an at-large bid with a home victory over Boston College.  They now play three relatively easy games (at Virginia, at Georgia Tech, NC State) and the Canes are going to need to win all of them to get to .500 in the ACC and have a shot at the NCAA tournament.

Big East

Dancing with a hottie: Pittsburgh (1), Connecticut (1), Louisville (2), Marquette (3), and Villanova (3)

Dancing with their sister: West Virginia (5) and  Syracuse (6)

Wallflowers: Providence (12), Notre Dame (eighth out), and Cincinnati (10th out)

Is it acceptable if I leave Georgetown (14-12, 5-10) off of the Wallflowers list this week?

Providence jumped from my "ninth team out" to my "last team in" after knocking off No. 1 Pittsburgh Tuesday night.  The Friars are now 9-7 in the Big East, and if they can beat Rutgers and win their first conference tournament game, they should earn a bid to the tournament.

Notre Dame’s recent win over Providence became more impressive, after the Friars beat Pittsburgh.  The Irish must win their two easy home games against Rutgers and St. John’s. Then, they must either beat the UConn or Villanova to a achieve a .500 league record, which should put them in good shape thanks to earlier wins over Texas and Louisville.

Cincinnati may have difficulty jumping over Providence in the pecking order, because the Bearcats were swept by the Friars.

The Bearcats missed a couple of opportunities to impress the committee, when they lost back-to-back games to Pittsburgh and Louisville.  The Bearcats need to take at least one of two from West Virginia and Syracuse before beating bottom-feeders South Florida and Seton Hall. 

Ten conference wins may get them into the tournament, but they need 11 wins to ensure a spot.


Big Ten

Dancing with a hottie: Michigan State (2)

Dancing with their sister: Illinois (5) and Purdue (5)

Wallflowers: Wisconsin (9), Ohio State (10), Minnesota (10), Penn State (first out), and Michigan (11th out)

Penn State was one of my "last teams in" heading into Tuesday night’s action, but then, the Nittany Lions lost at Ohio State, and Providence upset Pittsburgh to drop Penn State from the field. 

The Lions are now 8-7 in the Big Ten, but have two winnable games left against Indiana and Iowa.  If they can get to 10 wins in the conference, that could be enough, thanks to past victories over Purdue, Michigan State, Minnesota, and Illinois.

Wisconsin missed a golden opportunity to lock up a spot, when it lost at Michigan State on Sunday, but the Badgers have still won five of six to get to 8-7 in the conference and are playing better than most Wallflowers.  If they hold serve at home against Michigan and Indiana, they should be dancing.

Minnesota drops down a level after losing this past week.  The Gophers fell at Michigan and now must win two of their final three (at Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan). 

Michigan took a step forward by beating Minnesota and then another one back by losing at Iowa.  The Wolverines are now 7-8 in the conference and need to win two of three against Purdue, Wisconsin, and Minnesota to have any chance.

Big XII

Dancing with a hottie: Oklahoma (1), Kansas (3), and  Missouri (4)

Dancing with their sister: Texas (7)

Wallflowers: Kansas State (11), Texas A&M (third out), and Oklahoma State (fourth out)

Nebraska and Baylor removed themselves from any consideration, with losses on Tuesday night. 

Texas A&M’s win at the Cornhuskers puts the Aggies in better position, now that they have won three in a row to get to 6-7 in the conference. 

A&M’s computer numbers are good (RPI 34, SOS 31), and they has two easy games coming up against Iowa State and Colorado, which should clinch a .500 record in the league.  That could be enough for a team that has defeated Arizona, LSU, Oklahoma State, and Texas.

Texas locked up a spot with its win over Oklahoma, but since Player of the Year frontrunner Blake Griffin missed most of that game, the Sooners should not be penalized too much, so they remain on top.

Kansas State remains in the field because everyone else keeps losing.  However, the Wildcats must beat Nebraska and Colorado at home and either Missouri or Oklahoma State on the road to get to 10 league wins, which should get them in.

That game, on Mar. 3, between OSU and KSU, could be an elimination contest, now that the Cowboys are playing themselves closer to the field. 

Oklahoma State has won three in a row, including another virtual loser-goes-home contest against Baylor to get to 6-6 in the league.  The Cowboys’ road gets tougher from here, though, as they play Texas, Kansas St., and Oklahoma, but if they win two of these games, they have a shot.


Pac-10

Dancing with a hottie: Washington (4)

Dancing with their sister: Arizona State (5), UCLA (7), and California (8)

Wallflowers: Arizona (9) and  USC (11)

USC drops to one of my "last teams in," after falling at home to Washington for the Trojans’ fourth loss in five games.  They finish the season with easy home games against the two Oregon schools, but with just three wins against the top 100, 9-9 in conference will not cut it. They will have to win at least one of their road games at Cal and Stanford.

SEC

Dancing with their sister: LSU (7), Florida (8), and  Kentucky (8)

Wallflowers: South Carolina (9) and  Tennessee (9)

Kentucky’s convincing win over Tennessee gets the Wildcats on more solid ground, as they head into a difficult final four games.  At 8-4, two wins against South Carolina, LSU, Georgia, or Florida would get their ticket punched.


Mid-Majors

Dancing with a hottie: Memphis (2) and Xavier (4)
   
Dancing with their sister: Butler (6), Utah (6), Dayton (7), and  Gonzaga (8)

Wallflowers: UNLV (10), BYU (10), Siena (11), Utah State (12), Creighton (12), Davidson (13), Temple (fourth out), UAB (sixth out), New Mexico (ninth out), San Diego State (12th out), and Saint Mary’s (13th out)

San Diego State suffered a damaging loss at home to BYU on Tuesday.  The Aztecs have lost three of four and are now 8-5 in the Mountain West.  They will need to sweep their final three games, which includes a home bout against UNLV to have any shot at an at-large.

New Mexico, meanwhile, is staking its claim for a bid. 

The Lobos' current streak of five wins in six games includes victories over UNLV and SDSU.  Still, with an RPI of 68 and a SOS of 72, New Mexico will have to win its final three games, which includes a rematch with Utah. Otherwise, they do not have a chance at making the tournament.

Davidson has no shot at an at-large after losing at home to Butler with Stephen Curry in the lineup.  The Wildcats have now lost three of five and are just 2-4 versus the top 100.

Utah State also has very little chance of making the NCAA Tournament without winning its conference tournament after losing by double digits at Saint Mary’s.  Despite a gaudy 24-3 record, the Aggies’ only significant win is over Utah, and they have played 13 games against teams ranked worse than 200 in the RPI.

The Gaels, meanwhile, really needed that win to prove that they could beat a top 50 team without Patty Mills.  Still, with their only other big wins coming against Providence and San Diego State, Saint Mary’s will have to win the WCC tournament or beat Gonzaga in the semi-finals to reach the Big Dance.

Automatic Bids

13 seeds:

VCU, Western Kentucky, and American

14 seeds:

Weber State, Vermont, Buffalo, and  North Dakota State

15 seeds:

Stephen F. Austin, Cornell, Robert Morris, and Radford

16 seeds:

Morgan State, Long Beach State, Tennessee-Martin, Jacksonville, and Alabama State

Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man" is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com, and authorhouse.com.

Jordan can be reached at [e-mail]