Manchester United: 8 Reasons David Moyes Won't Replace Fergie
Whichever betting site you look at, David Moyes is the second favourite to be the next Manchester United manager, behind Jose Mourinho and ahead of Pep Guardiola, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer or Laurent Blanc.
His shortest price is 3-1 and longest 7-1, so you'd better be quick if you think this article is completely wrong.
The main reasons for him being touted are pretty obvious: he's Scottish; only 49; and a close mate of Sir Alex who, it is said, will recommend his successor to the United Board.
But Ferguson won't have the final say, except about when he goes. At one time, for example, there was a possibility that Carlos Queiroz had been lined up to succeed, but he was allowed to leave in 2008 to manage Portugal with no apparent assurances.
The fact that David Moyes has not moved to another club could be taken by some to mean that he is waiting for the top job in football; the one he can do for the rest of his career.
Moyes has done a fantastic job at Everton. Starved of cash, he has managed to get them into the Champions League in the past and they have usually finished in the higher echelons.
Unlike Sir Alex, Moyes had a pretty modest managerial pedigree when he joined Everton, having managed Preston North End. They did win the old Second Division 12 years ago.
For many who distrust the Glazers, Moyes might seem the perfect manager because he would be able to balance the books every year.
For the most valuable sports club and brand in the world, that simply wouldn't be enough.
He's Never Won Anything
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Apart from the Second Division, that is.
No Champions League or Premier League.
No FA Cup, League Cup or UEFA Cup.
He has of course won LMA Manager of the Year three times.
Oh, and of course he's won the hearts and minds of Everton supporters, which is why he should stay there.
Lack of European Experience
This is how Everton got to the Champions League, by finishing fourth in 2004-05.
Unfortunately, they never got beyond the qualifying round.
People often talk about Moyes making shrewd signings and none of the top teams take them lightly, especially at Goodison Park. But that didn't stop them getting beaten by Villareal twice.
They then slipped into the UEFA Cup as a consolation prize, where they have appeared in three separate seasons under Moyes.
In 2005-06 they lost 5-2 on aggregate to Dinamo Bucharest in the First Round.
In 2007-08 they stormed the Group stages before losing to Fiorentina in the last 16 on penalties.
They were eliminated by Standard Liege in the First Round of the Europa League (which replaced the UEFA Cup) in 2009-10.
And they lost in the Round of 32 to Sporting Lisbon in 2010-11 having made it through the Group stages. However, that was the year that Fulham reached the Final.
Although Manchester United didn't fare much better in 2011-12, this is hardly the pedigree needed to replace Sir Alex Ferguson as manager.
If Moyes were, like Walter Smith, to join Ferguson as assistant manager, he might have a chance, but otherwise he would be a high risk appointment.
Never Managed a Top Club
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Quite often when another Premier League job comes up, Moyes' name is mentioned. It was in the case of Spurs, but he said he wasn't approached.
So why has he never moved? Has he even been interviewed? Is he really happy at Everton or is he keeping his powder dry for United?
Or is he using this as a lever to get Bill Kenwright to open his purse again?
And what would he do if key players like Baines, Fellaini, Rodwell, etc. were sold?
Big Business Management
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Like Dave Whelan with Roberto Martinez at Wigan, Moyes has a good relationship with the owner.
Both Whelan and Kenwright are self-made millionaires who have run their own businesses.
Unlike the Glazers, Sheikh Mansour, John Henry, Stan Kroenke or Randy Lerner, they probably "walk the shop floor" most days.
Mike Ashley is a multi-millionaire and what he says, Alan Pardew does. He controls the purse strings—tightly.
On the other hand, Sir Alex Ferguson and David Gill have a virtually free hand to manage the footballing business that is Manchester United Football Club.
If Ferguson talks about value in the market, he isn't reciting the words of the owners. Like Arsene Wenger, he believes in the economic management of a top football club and does it every day.
Moyes is a manager in the old-fashioned sense, like Harry Redknapp was, but similarly is still answerable to the owners for what he spends and who he spends it on.
Taking over from Sir Alex would be a culture shock, even if the Scottish Knight stayed on Board.
Cache and Pull with International Stars
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Would Ganso jump at the chance of signing for David Moyes? Would he have even heard of him?
He has certainly heard of Sir Alex Ferguson and it may be that whoever takes over could need the help of Sir Alex until the transition has been achieved.
Can you imagine Karim Benzema, Fernando Llorente, Bastian Schweinsteiger or Wesley Sneijder jumping at the chance of working with David Moyes?
But they would with Pep Guardiola.
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This is the calibre of manager that Manchester United should be targeting next time around. Even Guus Hiddink or Carlo Ancelotti would be a far better bet than David Moyes.
United are one of the most famous football clubs in history and the most followed in the whole world.
The chance to build the next dynasty and take United to the next level would be a challenge that none of these would shirk if the timing was right.
My own choice is Guardiola. He took Barcelona as far as he could, but he could make United into the next Barcelona, much as Sir Matt Busby made United into the next Real Madrid.
He is the main reason why I don't think Moyes will be the next manager.
Fellaini, Rodwell, Jelavic Et Al
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These are the reasons Moyes will stay at Everton if he gets the right contract and financial support.
He has fought hard to keep his top and emerging stars. By and large they have remained very loyal to him.
Steven Pienaar did well at Spurs and would do so at United, but Moyes is the reason he was delighted to return to Goodison Park.
There is no doubt that David is a great manager of men, developer of talent and motivator. Those are enough to keep him relatively successful at Everton, but alone they are not enough to get him the job at Old Trafford.
Manchester United 4 Everton 4
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I have the 8-2 scoreboard against Arsenal as my mobile screen-saver forever.
But this is the one I can't get out of my mind.
United had the Premier League won, with a couple of minutes to go and David Moyes' Everton spoiled the party.
OK, he was only doing his job and he had the incentive of finishing above Liverpool.
But if there was ever a moment that convinced Sir Alex that Moyes probably wasn't the man to succeed him, it was probably this one.
He does occasionally bear grudges, but will not against Moyes. He doesn't expect favours from anyone. This denial against the resurgent challenge of Manchester City will stick in Sir Alex's craw for the rest of his life, especially if he retired without winning another title.
Sadly for David Moyes the bus has probably moved on...