NCAA Tournament 2012: Why Louisville Will Fail in Final Four

The West Region champion Louisville Cardinals can celebrate for now, but their stay in New Orleans for the Final Four will be short-lived.

The No. 4 seed Big East Tournament champs took down the No. 7 seed Florida Gators on Saturday afternoon in Phoenix 72-68 behind a furious second-half comeback that featured a 23-8 run over the game's final 10 minutes.

The Elite Eight victory advances the Cardinals to the Final Four where they will play the winner of the South Regional Final today between No. 1-seeded Kentucky and No. 3-seeded Baylor. 

But regardless of who Rick Pitino's ball club is pitted against next Saturday night, Louisville is destined to come up short at its ninth Final Four.

Will History Repeat Itself?

Prior to 2012, the last time Pitino and the Cardinals made the Final Four was in 2005, when they were, oddly enough, a No. 4 seed in the West Region (Albuquerque). 

But wait, the similarities between 2005 and 2012 don't stop there.

Louisville also won their conference tournament (Conference USA) prior to the Big Dance in 2005, and toppled No. 1 seed Washington by 14 points in the regional semifinals (the Cards defeated No. 1 seed Michigan State in the same round by 13 points this year).

Additionally, in 2005, Louisville defeated No. 7 seed West Virginia in the regional final in a thrilling overtime contest, which the Mountaineers led by 10 with six minutes to play (the Cards defeated Florida yesterday after trailing by 11 points with 10 minutes to play).

It gets worse for Louisville fans though. Pitino and the Cardinals met the tournament's No. 1 overall seed, the Illinois Fighting Illini, at the Final Four in 2005, and lost by 15 points.

Battle For Kentucky

Although 2012's top-seeded Kentucky Wildcats have yet to book their trip to the Final Four, they seem destined for the national semifinals and have more than enough firepower to put away Louisville.

The strength of the Cardinals all tournament long has been their defense, which has held four NCAA Tournament opponents to an average of just 57.5 points per game. Unfortunately for the Cardinals' chances going forward against a team like Kentucky or any of the remaining teams, they are only averaging a little more than 64 points per game in the tournament.

Louisville's defense was present on New Year's Eve in Lexington this season, when they fell by seven to the Wildcats, allowing just 69 points, but their offense failed them (62 points), just as it will in the Final Four.

Kentucky is averaging 90 points per game in the NCAA Tournament and became the first team to post 100-plus on Friday night against Indiana. Louisville's 155th-ranked scoring attack simply cannot compete with an NBA-bound rotation as offensively gifted as the Wildcats'.

The Cardinals were lucky to escape the cold-shooting Gators in the Elite Eight, just as they were fortunate to survive the upset-minded Mountaineers in 2005.

Sure, the Cardinals will be at the Final Four in New Orleans next Saturday night, but their failure is inevitable.