How NCAA Tournament Participation Affects an NBA Prospect's Draft Stock

Editor's Note: This is the first installment of a three-part series examining how participation in the NCAA tournament affects the draft stock of NBA players. Check back later this week for Part 2. 

Looking at the tournament and draft position, one thing is pretty clear: Participation in the tournament does affect where a player is drafted.

Draft Position	Tournament Participation Rate
Lottery	85%
Late First Round	74%
Second Round	58%
Successful Undrafted Players	41%

The percentages are for college players drafted in the years 2002-2010. This does stand to reason, as the better players are more likely to play in the tournament and get drafted earlier because of it.

I wanted to look at each group and ask the question of whether too much emphasis is put on tournament participation when evaluating a prospect. In this piece, I’ll focus on successful undrafted players.

A look at the best undrafted players ever found 10 inside players and 16 perimeter players. I looked for players who had played at least 10,000 NBA minutes (or seem likely to get there) and played them at a reasonably adequate level.

As a group, these players weren’t as visible as the typical draftees. The most common thread among this group is they were late bloomers in college. While they usually were putting up some decent numbers by their draft years, most were either role players in their early years, had transferred or played at a small college. They also had a much lower percentage of tournament participation as a group than players who had been drafted.

First, a look at the inside players and their numbers from their final college season:

Player	2 PT. Pct.	P40	R40	SB40
Chris Andersen	.540	18.6	14.3	N/A
Joel Anthony	.597	11.5	9.0	7.5
Reggie Evans	.497	18.4	13.3	2.5
Udonis Haslem	.564	22.6	11.7	3.1
Chuck Hayes	.522	14.9	10.6	3.9
Brad Miller	.642	23.5	12.2	4.0
Bo Outlaw	.658	18.5	11.4	7.3
Ben Wallace	.500	17.2	14.4	6.4
Aaron Williams	.514	15.5	10.1	3.6
Scott Williams	.563	23.5	11.8	N/A

The statistics listed are two-point percentage, points per 40 minutes, rebounds per 40 minutes and combined steals and blocks per 40 minutes.

The players who missed the tournament were Andersen, Evans, Outlaw and Wallace. Andersen and Wallace weren’t eligible because they didn’t play at a Division I college.

So, the tournament participation rate for the inside players is pretty much in line with that of drafted players. For that reason, I doubt the draft snubs had anything to do with tournament participation. The only player that case could be made for would be Outlaw, who—based on his numbers at the time and subsequent NBA performance—should have been a first-rounder.

There were some common traits in these players. All were late bloomers. All were strong rebounders and/or defenders. Most were low-scoring role players, whether they played for a traditional power, a mid-major or a small college.

The two exceptions were Udonis Haslem and Brad Miller, who were both senior leading scorers on teams (Florida and Purdue) that had been tournament regulars during their careers. Both had strong numbers, decent size and had played in the tournament all four years. I have no idea what scouts saw that possessed them to rate Marcus Haislip ahead of Haslem and Michael Doleac ahead of Miller, but that’s what happened.

The important thing to take from this is that a player who posts strong numbers in rebounds, steals and blocks, while hitting a high percentage of his shots, is always worth a draft pick whether he played in the tournament or not. But, there’s little proof that inside players who missed the tournament are being snubbed simply because of that. With this group, it seems like more of a case of players who were considered too small.

Now, the perimeter players:

Point Guards	2 pt. Pct	3 pt pct	P40	A40
Chucky Atkins	.503	.373	20.3	4.2
J.J. Barea	.485	.291	25.1	10.0
Earl Boykins	.511	.407	27.9	6.0
Darrell Armstrong	.579	.411	24.5	7.0
Mike James	.483	.353	20.5	4.0
Damon Jones	.574	.376	18.3	5.5
Avery Johnson	.552	.468	12.0	13.9
Robert Pack	.530	.255	18.2	6.6
David Wesley	.498	.378	23.0	5.1

Wing	2 pt Pct	3 pt Pct	P40	RSB40
Raja Bell	.522	.348	19.2	6.6
Bruce Bowen	.487	.326	17.9	N/A
Wesley Matthews	.527	.368	20.7	8.5
Anthony Morrow	.471	.448	18.6	7.2
John Starks	.559	.380	18.9	N/A
Reggie Williams	.580	.279	28.8	13.0
Damien Wilkins	.441	.321	14.4	N/A

The statistics are, in addition to two- and three-point percentages, points per 40 minutes, assists per 40 minutes and combined rebounds, steals and blocks per 40 minutes.

I separated the point guards from the wings because of the different skills required for each position. Only four of these players made the tournament: Johnson, Pack, Boykins and Matthews. Of those four, Matthews is the only one who got past Round 1.

Considering that every player here—with the exception of Bowen and Wilkins—put up draft-worthy numbers, it has to be considered that missing the tournament hurt their draft prospects some.

There are other factors to be mentioned. Perimeter players, especially wings, often get caught in a numbers game. The fact is, there are more capable shooting guards than NBA positions available.

A good example is Wesley Matthews in 2009. That draft was flush with good wing prospects. While Matthews came in with strong numbers, there wasn’t anything that made him stand out above the other SGs, and he went undrafted.

These players also had a lot in common with the inside players. Most were late bloomers who didn’t emerge as the star of their teams until their junior or senior year. Many are on the small side and played out of the limelight at lower-profile programs.

In the cases of Reggie Williams and Bruce Bowen, the player made the league by developing a three-point shot after college.

There are a lot of factors at work in any players’ ultimate success, but for perimeter players especially, visibility in college is very important. I think I can say that for perimeter players, participation in the tournament has been a factor in getting drafted.

While the NBA scouts generally do a good job of drafting players, they do miss at least one and overrate a few every year. This is especially true in the case of perimeter players. It isn’t like these players were anonymous, either.

Both Avery Johnson and J.J. Barea were among the leaders in assists. Reggie Williams scored 27 PPG. I think it’s obvious that teams need to widen their scope to consider more players.

I’m not suggesting that the success of a relatively small number of players who slipped under the radar means a team should roll the dice on the likes of Teddy Schickel with a second-round pick in 2012. However, I will say that the evaluation process that elevates Jonny Flynn above Ty Lawson, Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday and Darren Collison could use a tweak or two.

Perhaps less time could be spent in pre-draft workouts designed to simulate real-game action, and more time could be spent looking at numbers that were posted playing the same five-on-five game the player is being drafted to play.

Ed Weiland writes for HoopsAnalyst.com and was one of the few NBA draft analysts who predicted Jeremy Lin's success as a pro.