Philadelphia Phillies: 10 Keys to Winning the World Series 2012

The Philadelphia Phillies won 102 regular season games last year.  They also won 101 games in 1976 and 1977.  Yet in all three of those years, they failed to win a postseason series.  So while it is great to have a team win 100-plus games and get a high playoff seed, what's more important is winning the World Series. 

The 1980 World Champion Phillies went 91-71 while the 2008 Champs went 92-70.  Obviously, those two squads are considered the "best" in Phillies history, but that is only because they won the World Series.  If the 1977 Phillies faced the 1980 Phillies 162 times, I'd be shocked if the 1977 Phillies didn't win 90-plus times. 

Same for the 2011 group facing the 2008 bunch.  Bottom line, things have to fall into place; sprinkle in some luck and combine it with talent and you get a World Championship.  Here are the 10 keys to the Phillies winning a World Series in 2012.

#10 Antonio Bastardo/Michael Stutes Durability

Antonia Bastardo and Michael Stutes were two major surprises out of the Phillies' bullpen in 2011. Bastardo appeared in 64 games while Stutes pitched in 57.  The heavy workload started getting to the pair late in the 2011 season though. 

Bastardo, arguably, could have pitched in the All-Star game.  At the break last season, he had a 0.82 ERA and an opponents' batting average of .103.  He had allowed a minuscule 11 hits in 33 innings of work.

However, after the All-Star break his numbers fell off.  While his opponents' batting average still hit below .200 at .193, his ERA was 5.04 and he allowed 4 HR's in just 25 innings of work.   

For Stutes, it was more of the same; before the All-Star break, opponents hit .183 off him and that climbed to .248 after the break.  His ERA was 3.26 before and 3.98 after, but it was obvious he was spent towards the end.  In the playoffs, Stutes allowed three runs in just one-third of an inning.

For the Phillies to win the World Series in 2012, Bastardo and Stutes have to take their game to the next level by being able to be strong in September and October instead of arms Manuel is reluctant to call on. 

The Phils have plenty of veterans in the pen in Chad Qualls, Jose Contreras, Kyle Kendrick and, of course, closer Jonathan Papelbon, but it's this young duo who showed signs of dominance last year that are the key.

Bastardo/Stutes are the first key for the 2012 Phillies to win the World Series.

#9 Staying Afloat at 1b Until the "Big Piece" Returns

Ryan Howard is out.  We all know that, and after a little hiccup to open Spring Training, possibly longer than originally expected.  So the '12 Phillies must be able to be competitive with the typical numbers Howard put up. 

To do so, four candidates are in house and ready to go.  Jim Thome, Ty Wiggington, John Mayberry and Laynce Nix will probably all see time at first base.  If Howard misses the first half of the season, that foursome will need to do something like this when playing first:

Thome: .256-8-21

Wiggington:  .265-4-14

Mayberry: .288-5-19

Nix:  .282-3-12

That would be roughly .266-20-66 and plenty enough to make up for Howard.

#8 Vance Worley

Although another young arm, Vance Worley is being counted on in the rotation instead of Bastardo/Stutes in the pen. It's no longer the "Four Aces" in Philly, as Roy Oswalt left via free agency (still unsigned) leavingand left the Phillies the Big Three in Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels. 

But there are some who think that Worley is an upgrade over the '11 version of Oswalt, and that same group was screaming that Worley should have been handed the ball in Game 4 vs. the Cardinals instead of Oswalt. 

This is 2012 though, and Worley needs to come close to duplicating his surprising '11 debut.  Worley made 21 starts and went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA.  Very respectable numbers.  Nevertheless, there are plenty of scouts who think that Worley's stuff is average at best and his '11 numbers were a fluke. 

All of that remains to be seen, but if the Phillies want to go deep into October, they'll need more than just the Big Three, and Worley needs to be that guy.

#7 Phillies Hitting Coach Greg Gross

The clock might be ticking on Phillies hitting coach Greg Gross.  Milt Thompson was the Phillies' hitting instructor when they won the World Series in 2008 and was fired midway through the 2010 season.  Last season was Gross' first full season in the Major Leagues as a hitting coach, but it was not a resume- building type. 

In Game Five versus the Cardinals, Phillies pitcher Roy Halladay gave up one run in the first inning.  Unfortunately, that was too many, for the Phils bats couldn't muster anything and the season ended in a disappointing and shocking fashion. 

Gross has to have the Phillies become more patient at the plate. 

Table setters Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino are menaces to opposing pitchers, and there is plenty of thump behind them to do damage.  But, too often, Phillies hitters get in favorable 2-0 or 3-1 counts and get overly aggressive.  Opposing pitchers feed off that and flip slow-off speed pitches in hitter's counts to induce harmless ground outs to second (at least one a game for Rollins) or short pop ups.

Phils skipper Charlie Manuel is aggressive.  He loves to give 3-0 green lights and let his big bats bop.  Gross, though, needs to instill the type of patience Phillies fans saw from the 1993 squad that walked a ton and forced pitchers to give in if there were constant base runners. 

A ton of pressure sits on Greg Gross in 2012 to get these bats right, for it hasn't been the pitching during the last two seasons that failed the Phillies in the playoffs.

#6 Phillies Fans

First off, the support the Phillies get from their fans is second to none. During this incredible stretch, the Phillie have old out night after night after night. 

However, once the Cardinals went up 1-0 in the first inning in Game Five last season, Citizens Bank Park turned into a morgue.  It was like they all knew it was coming and were just begging to be wrong instead of aggressively cheering on the boys in red pinstripes. 

For whatever reason, Philadelphia fans still continue to expect the worst.  That's okay, except for the Phillies.  Donovan McNabb is not going to toss a pick-six to Ronde Barber here.  Don't panic when the Phillies are down at anytime.  Ride the opposing team like no tomorrow and watch the home team feed off this.  Look back at the playoffs in 2008 and 2009 and keep that going. 

No more morgues.

#5 Big Years by Free Agents-to-Be: Shane Victorino & Cole Hamels

Contract year.  It's a well-known term in sports.  In 2012, two Phillies who have played integral parts in this franchise's best run might possibly be playing in their final season.

On 75 percent of the teams in baseball, starting pitcher Cole Hamels would be the bona fide No. 1 starter.  On the Phillies, he's No. 3.  Hamels doesn't seem to be the type that HAS to be the "Ace," but that doesn't mean he shouldn't be paid like one—because he should.

So with that in mind, Hamels has a lot to play for.  He's mature enough that any talk of a contract extension won't be a distraction, but expect a big season from Hamels and possibly his first 20-win season.

This will be center fielder Shane Victorino's last time to cash in a large multi-year contract.  Rumor already has it that he wants five years.  Regardless of that, Victorino is primed for a big season.  Last season, Shane had put himself into MVP consideration before he slowed down in August/September.

Still, his .847 OPS was the highest of his career.  Look for Victorino to build on 2011 and have his finest season yet.

Hamels and Victorino having successful "contract years" would take pressure off the rest of the rotation and the everyday lineup.

#4 New MLB Playoff Format

In a previous article, I mentioned the Phillies would have probably won the World Series in 2011 if the MLB playoff format had changed last year instead of this year.  Winning the NL East is not a forgone conclusion, but even if the Phillies fall five or six games off of last season's pace, they more than likely will take the East. 

If they grab the No. 1 seed again, they will face the winner of the one-game playoff who, of course, would have tossed their ace in that game to move on.  With the ace spent, that makes it to where a "Chris Carpenter" type would only get to start one game in a short five-game series.  Huge advantage to the Phillies.

#3 Jonathan Papelbon

The Phillies have showed up on a lot of offseason lists for most questionable moves regarding their signing of their new closer Jonathan Papelbon.  Regardless if the signing was a good one or not, the Phillies need Papelbon to have a dominant season a la Brad Lidge in 2008. 

Not a perfect season, mind you, but "as advertised."  An All-Star closer who racks up 40 to 50 saves with minimal drama.  If the Phillies get that, the signing is justified.  The window is on its way down with this nucleus, but it hasn't shut yet.  Papelbon is a key to making sure this bunch gets at least one more parade.

#2 Chase Utley

In 2006, Ryan Howard followed up an amazing rookie season and became NL MVP.  Jimmy Rollins became the man in 2007 and snagged the MVP as well.  Many prognosticators before the 2008 season picked Chase Utley to finish off the MVP trifecta.  Utley had a fine season in 2008 hitting .292 with 33 HR's and 104 RBI. 

After the season, Utley had surgery on his hip that was obviously bothering him in the postseason.

Everyone remembers what Chase Utley did in the 2009 World Series against the New York Yankees.  Utley hit five HR's in 21 AB's and basically carried the Phillies.  However, in the regular season, Utley's average dipped to .282.

Then, in 2010 and 2011, the injury bug took over as he missed 106 games combined and Utley's average dropped to .275 and then .259.  Utley continued to get further away from MVP. 

For the Phillies to win the World Series in 2012, Chase Utley needs to get back to being Chase Utley. 

Manager Charlie Manuel is already taking it easy with Utley this spring, as he hasn't even played yet.  I agree with Charlie.  Why waste him now?  It's imperative the five-time All Star gets back to that level and carries this team with Ryan Howard out indefinitely.  A big year for Chase equals postseason success.

#1 Health-Health-Health

This is not only No. 1, but also 1-A, 1-B, and 1-C.

The Phillies were "healthy" when the playoffs started in 2011, right?  Their regular lineup was there for all five postseason games.  Wrong.

Second base Chase Utley wasn't quite right all season.  Third base Placido Polanco's elbow was so messed up he became a second pitcher in the lineup.  RF Hunter Pence had a sports hernia.  First base Ryan Howard, even before he blew out his achilles, was having major foot issues.

SS Jimmy Rollins and CF Shane Victorino also spent time on the DL, allowing the likes of Wilson Valdez to rack up 300 plate appearances.

Face it, the Phillies are not a young bunch, and, unfortunately, the older you get, the more likely injuries occur.  Take a look at the probable opening day lineup:

1. Jimmy Rollins- SS  (33)

2. Shane Victorino- CF  (31)

3. Chase Utley- 2b  (33)

4. Hunter Pence- RF  (29)

5. Jim Thome- 1b (41)

6. John Mayberry- LF (28)

7. Placido Polanco- 3b (36)

8. Carlos Ruiz- C (33)

That's exactly an average of 33 years of age.  This has to be GM Ruben Amaro Jr's biggest concern, and I haven't even mentioned Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. 

Halladay will turn 35 in May while Lee will turn 33 in August.  Halladay/Lee are workout freaks and in great shape, but look what happened to Roy Oswalt last season or Brad Lidge the last three years.  Both are pitchers in their mid-30's who started to break down. 

If something happens to Halladay/Lee, uh oh.

Without a doubt, the most difficult opponent the Phillies will face all season will be Father Time.  Eventually Mr. Time defeats every single player.  For Phillies fans, the hope is he stays far away from the 2012 squad.