Jeremy Lin: What Made the New York Knicks Sensation Stand Out as a Prospect

(Editor's note: Ed Weiland writes for HoopsAnalyst.com and was one of the few NBA draft analysts who predicted Jeremy Lin's success as a pro. We recently reached out to Weiland and asked him to explain his metric and why he suspected Lin was one of the best point guards in his draft class.)

Jeremy Lin stood out as a prospect to me for several reasons. He posted strong numbers in the statistics that have historically been important for PG prospects to excel in. He was dominant in the two statistics that best show NBA-level athleticism for a PG. There were no other glaring negatives in his game.

Finally, even though he played in a lesser conference, he proved he could play with the big boys whenever he got the chance. In my mind, this made him a great bet to become at least a rotation regular with an outside shot at stardom.

When evaluating a prospect, I look at a few different important stats for the position they play. History tells us that college players who do well in these statistical categories are much more likely to become successful NBA players. A prospect who slips too far below certain numbers in any of these statistics becomes much more of a risk. If a prospect is way above the norm in two or more of these categories and at least average in the others, they’re potential All-Stars.

For point guards, the important statistics are points per 40 minutes (P/40), assists per 40 minutes (A/40), two-point field-goal percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio, steals per 40 minutes (S/40), and combined rebounds, steals and blocks per 40 minutes (RSB/40). Per-minute numbers are pace-adjusted to take the varying pace of NCAA team offenses into account.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the important stats and why they matter: 

Points per 40 Minutes

The large majority of NBA players were the top scorers on their college team—especially a player like Lin, who played in a smaller conference. A PG prospect’s P/40 should be at least 18.0 and preferably higher. A player that scores too infrequently is always a risk, regardless of how good his other stats look. Lin was at 20.2, which is comfortably above the 18.0 benchmark.

Two-Point FG Percentage

This should be at least .500. The higher the better. A two-point percentage over .500 shows an ability to score efficiently. Winning basketball is all about using possessions efficiently and keeping your opponent from doing the same.

A high two-point percentage suggests NBA athleticism in a guard, because it shows an ability to score from the lane. Lin’s .598 is a mark many power forward and center prospects don’t hit. He was easily the best among the 2010 PGs in this important statistic.

Assists per 40 Minutes

This should be at least 5.0, though I prefer a prospect to be over 6.0. This is an area where Lin was on the low side, at 5.5. The relatively low total is what led to the line in the original Hoopsanalyst article: “If he can get the passing thing down."

An Assist-to-Turnover Ratio of 1.4 or Higher

While A/TO is overused and not a particularly good measure of a PG’s value compared to other PGs, a low number—especially if it’s driven by a high number of turnovers—is a very bad sign for a PG prospect.

Lin was also low here, at 1.43, but still good enough for a passing grade. Because it was driven more by low assists than high turnovers, I didn’t consider it a huge concern at the time. It is worth noting that the weakest part of his game in NY and the thing that could burn out his ascendant star has been high turnovers.

Steals per 40 Minutes

This should top 1.3 and preferably 2.0. Lin was tops among 2010 PG prospects at 3.0.

Combined Rebounds, Steals and Blocks per 40 Minutes or RSB/40

I look for at least 6.5. I’m doubling up on steals, but I do that for a reason. By looking at only steals, I can eliminate players who post a high RSB/40 based on solely on rebounds and blocks. Such players are often forwards who aren’t quick enough to play guard in the NBA.

By combining the three, it separates the stronger, more athletic players from players who are simply ball hawks. A lot of steals are a good thing on their own for a guard prospect. Any guard prospect that also accumulates a large number of blocks and rebounds is showing the type of skills normally reserved for big men, and this is another sign of NBA athleticism.

Lin was again tops in his class here at 9.7. This and the high two-point percentage put him in the company of some of the best PGs in recent years at the same stage in their careers.

There are other numbers to look at also—things that wouldn’t be major negatives in and of themselves—like a low number in the other categories would be—but do raise a red flag if there were enough of them. A PG prospect should be able to knock down a three-pointer consistently enough that it has to be respected. I don’t give this a lot of attention because an outside shot is easy enough to develop.

But, if a PG prospect is less than a 30 percent shooter or rarely shoots from behind the arc, it is worth noting and should be considered something of a negative. Lin was at .341 as a senior and hit .400 in at least one of his previous seasons. This wasn’t a problem for him.

Another number to look at is free-throw attempts. A good PG prospect knows how to get to the line for easy points. Lin was again one of the best in his class here at 8.3 per 40 minutes.

The last thing to be looked at in Lin’s case was that he posted these numbers in a lesser conference, which just isn’t as impressive as if it were done in the ACC or Big East. What I looked at here was previous small-college PGs who successfully made the transition to the NBA—players like Terry Porter and Derek Fisher. Lin compared favorably to most of this group statistically.

There was also the fact that in three non-conference games against Big East heavies Connecticut, Boston College and Georgetown, he posted numbers that in a lot of ways exceeded his numbers against lesser competition.

To be sure, there was a certain amount of serendipity involved in Lin’s sudden stardom. The 2012 New York Knicks were the perfect team at the perfect time. On most teams, an undrafted player like Lin would have had to play his way into the rotation, working up to a useful third guard before getting a chance to start, most likely a year or two down the road. That would have been his career path had he stuck at Golden State or Houston.

The Knicks were different. The projected starting PG was injured and the other options just weren’t working. The team was struggling badly, looking more like a lottery team than the contender that had been paid for and marketed to fans. The Knicks were so desperate for a PG that they were willing to try an undrafted, little-used backup.

The Knicks also had a coach, Mike D’Antoni, whose offense has always been good for PGs. The fact that Lin’s sudden rise turned around what was looking like an ugly season for the Knicks, and the simple fact that this all happened in New York instead of, say, Portland, added to the size of the story.

For Jeremy Lin, it’s great that he took advantage of a great situation. For Ed Weiland, it’s been a fun 15 minutes.