Gauging the Flight Risk for Chicago Bears' 2012 Free Agents

The Chicago Bears have a busy offseason, with a new GM in place scouting the Combine and exploring free agents and the draft to fill the holes in the team.

But one thing that cannot be ignored is the status of their own free agents, especially Matt Forte. New GM Phil Emery has 14 free agents of his own to deal with. He must decide whom to keep and whom to let go.

While Lovie Smith virtually ended all speculation about Forte potentially leaving the team or not being wanted—as foolish as those ideas may have been—it's still worthwhile to keep track of who will return and who will not.

The main reason this is critical is that it will help determine who the Bears focus on in their other efforts to fill the needs of the club. If, for example, Tim Jennings finds a better offer somewhere else, they will need even more depth in the secondary.

A lot of the team's own free agents are at positions the team needs to bolster anyway, such as DE and CB. But the effect on the depth of the team, as well as special teams contributors, make this an important topic to follow. 

So, consider this Vegas, and I am your "bookie." I will book the odds on each of the Bears' free agents leaving and you can provide your own arguments why I am wrong.

Caleb Hanie, QB

UPDATE: I guess I won't have to eat my hat. According to ESPNChicago's Jeff Dickerson, Hanie isn't coming back.

If Hanie returns, I'll eat my Bears hat. Yes, I will take my hat, sprinkle a little salt and pepper on it—and some hot sauce, why not?—and eat every last stitch, take a picture and put it on my B/R profile if Hanie is back as the main backup to Cutler.

Yet admit it, Bears fans. If you are like me, you thought he could be a serviceable QB if Cutler got hurt. But he proved to be much less than that. Sure, he didn't get much help from his line or the receivers, but dems da breaks, as they say.

He may have played himself right out of the league.

ODDS: 1:2

Brandon Meriweather, FS

Meriweather was a costly mistake last season and it's highly doubtful that he will return. For the Bears system, he is too much of a freelancer, and he doesn't play very disciplined.

Meriweather also proved to be a cheap-shot artist.

I guess this mistake has taught the Bears one thing: when Bill Belichick says someone is done, he is likely done.

ODDS: 1:1

Roy Williams, WR

Here's a stat that should make you sick: Free agent Roy Williams led all Bears receivers with 600 snaps in 2011. If that doesn't speak to how bad the Bears receivers were and how desperate the Martz system was last year, nothing will.

Williams was supposed to recapture the magic he had way back in 2006 when he had his one and only big season, which coincidentally occurred under Martz.

That didn't materialize, of course, and Williams will not be back in all likelihood. Williams and his alligator arms and dropped passes can hit the road.

I wouldn't be surprised if his career is over.

ODDS: 1.5:1

Chris Massey, LS

Massey's return has little to do with his play and more to do with the health of veteran Bears snapper Patrick Mannelly. Unless Mannelly decides to hang up his spikes, Massey will be gone.

Two long snappers is just one too many. Massey didn't mess up any snaps when he replaced Mannelly, who was sidelined with a torn ACL in 2011, but he's a victim of the numbers game.

The only reason that I don't make him even odds is that Mannelly turns 37 in April. 

ODDS: 2:1

Zack Bowman, CB

Bowman is another one of the plethora of cornerbacks who are free agents on the Bears roster. However, he is also the least worthy of returning.

He had a promising rookie season (haven't we heard that one before? Hello, Mark Anderson and Nathan Vasher) but since then, injuries and inconsistent play have made him a non-factor.

Perhaps he could succeed with a fresh start in a different system. I think he will get that chance.

ODDS: 2:1

Amobi Okoye, DT

Okoye teased with flashes of the pass rusher he could be, yet at this point he is just a depth guy. However, I do expect him to come back, since he likely won't cost very much.

ODDS: 3:1

Tim Jennings, CB

Jennings is a little guy who plays with no fear. Other than one bad quarter against Denver, Jennings played decently in 2011.

But he was in Smith's doghouse until redeeming himself late in the year, so he will only come back at the right price.

Helping his odds of returning are two things. First, his height (5'8") and second, the Bears need depth at cornerback.

I fully expect the Bears to draft a corner and could even try to sign one as a free agent. But unless Jennings finds a better offer on the open market, he will return.

ODDS: 4:1  

Corey Graham, CB

Graham wants to be paid like a starting corner, yet his value to the Bears is on special teams. However, he did play surprisingly well at the nickel position when DJ Moore went down.

I don't know whether teams will value Graham's excellent special-teams contributions enough to offer him a bigger free-agent contract than what the Bears are likely to offer, but it's possible.

Graham made his first Pro Bowl in 2011, though he should have made it in 2010, too.

The reason I rate the odds of his returning less than Jennings is not because the Bears would rather have Jennings. It's because other teams might rather have Graham.

ODDS: 5:1

Josh McCown, QB

I still expect McCown to return to be the backup to Jay Cutler, though his return is far from the certainty that is Matt Forte.

Still, he knows the people and the system, though the system is changing with Mike Tice taking the reins as offensive coordinator. But it won't change all that much from the hybrid version that was forced upon Mike Martz.

The devil you know is often better than the devil you don't, and McCown has the familiarity factor. Plus, guys like Kyle Orton, Matt Flynn, Chad Henne and Jason Campbell will want to go where they have a chance to play. 

Personally, I like the Lions' Shaun Hill but I definitely think the Bears will go back to McCown. One thing is fairly certain: Caleb Hanie won't be back. That said, it's not as if McCown was very good.

McCown looked good relative to Hanie, but in all, he finished with two TDs, four interceptions and a QB rating of 68.3.

Consider this: cbssports.com ranked the free agent QBs and, including honorable mentions, included 21 QBs and did not even mention McCown.

ODDS: 6:1

Craig Steltz, SS

I like Chris Conte at free safety, despite his relatively brief career, but I have "major" questions (pun intended) about the strong safety position.

Just when we thought Steltz couldn't play, he played well toward the end of the season and made the most of his opportunity, so I expect the Bears to make a strong push to have Steltz return.

He is also a useful special-teams player. Besides, his value on the free-agent market will not be all that great.

ODDS: 7:1

Israel Idonije, DE

Idonije had a disappointing season in 2011 as compared with 2010, especially when you consider that all the double- and triple-teaming of Julius Peppers should have resulted in more sack opportunities for him.

Idonije had five sacks last year after recording eight in 2010. He also had just one forced fumble after forcing three the year before.

Still, he is 31 and should have some good football left in him, and I expect the Bears to work an agreement to bring him back.

Sure, I would love an upgrade at DE opposite Peppers, but do you really think the Bears will pony up the cash for Cliff Avril? And will Detroit even allow him to hit the open market?

No matter what else the Bears do to upgrade, including drafting a player such as my favorite—South Carolina's Melvin Ingram—they probably would be wise to re-sign Idonije.

ODDS: 8:1

Kellen Davis, TE

Davis is a pretty sure bet to return to the Bears for two simple reasons. First, he hasn't displayed that he's a dependable pass catcher in the NFL despite ideal size. And two, the Bears need him.

Unless the Bears draft a tight end, which I doubt they will do, Davis is going to return. After all, Tice will use the TE more and Smith "lovies" him.

And, for what it's worth, Davis has a knack for making touchdown catches. Of his 28 career receptions, nine have been for TDs.

Also keep in mind what the Bears head coach said of Davis.

"I think if you want to feature Kellen Davis, you can do that," Smith said Thursday. "Great size, great in-line blocker, skilled enough of an athlete to be able to move outside and do some things. I really like him."

Sounds like someone who is going to return.

ODDS: 20:1

Kahlil Bell, RB

Bell had a productive year for the Bears in 2011, playing well when given the opportunity. Despite a penchant for fumble-itis, Bell may allow the Bears to release Marian Barber for cap space.

In limited opportunities, Bell averaged 4.3 yards per carry and rushed for 121 yards against the Packers on Christmas Day. He also added 19 catches for a total of 470 combined yards in only six games where he got some real playing time.

Unlike most of the Bears free agents, Bell is a restricted free agent, which means the Bears have the option to match any offer he receives, making it even less likely that he goes anywhere.

ODDS: 40:1

Matt Forte, RB

UPDATE: Bears placed the franchise tag on Forte on 3/2/12.

Forte is the lifeblood of the Bears' offense. No player in the NFL was a bigger part of their team's offense than Forte was last year until he got hurt.

That said, he will return, whether on a long-term extension, or a one year franchise tag for $7.7 million. Either way, no one should be feeling sorry for this man, who is about to become very rich.

Keep in mind that the Bears and former GM Jerry Angelo did offer an extension to Forte last year that included approximately $12 million-$13 million in guaranteed money. It was Forte and his agents who declined that offer.

Besides, the tag can be applied while they continue to work on an extension. As Smith says, Forte will be back no matter what.

“Matt’s going to play his football for the Chicago Bears. So you start with that. In time, hopefully he can get an agreement in place that suits Matt and we feel comfortable with. I think it’s just a matter of time. That will happen eventually.”

If they can't sign him, they will tag him. He ain't going nowhere.

ODDS: 100:1