2013 MLB Free Agency: Every Team's Odds of Signing Cole Hamels

This offseason marked the final year of arbitration for Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels (pictured), who has been an integral member of the team's rotation since 2006. This past season, despite a modest record of 14-9, the 2008 World Series MVP posted a remarkable 2.79 ERA with an 0.98 WHIP as he continued to establish himself as one of baseball's elite pitchers.

Sure enough, he and the Phillies avoided arbitration on January 17, when he signed a one-year deal worth $15 million.

While it was a certainty that Hamels would be back in the City of Brotherly Love for the 2012 season, it's a bit of a shock that the Phillies didn't look to sign him for longer. The money he'll earn next season is the highest for any pitcher prior to becoming free agency-eligible.

Given Hamels' value to the club over the years, one would think that the Phillies would make a greater effort to lock him up long-term.

Instead, Hamels could possibly the the hottest commodity on next year's free-agency market and given the number of teams that could use a front-line starting pitcher, he could be in line to receive a multi-year contract worth in excess of $100 million.

Any team would be lucky to have him, so the question poses itself: Where will Hamels play in 2013? Let's have a look at each team's odds of signing the two-time All-Star next offseason.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks won the NL West last year on the back of a great young pitching staff headlined by youngsters Ian Kennedy (pictured) and Daniel Hudson, not to mention an MVP-caliber season by outfielder Justin Upton. The pitching staff is looking even better going into 2012 with the acquisition of Trevor Cahill from the Oakland A's.

On top of that, free-agent outfielder Jason Kubel signed a two-year deal to give Upton some extra protection in the lineup.

That being said, even though the Diamondbacks finished ninth in runs scored last season, I have a feeling that Arizona GM Kevin Towers will use his limited budget to keep improving the lineup.

Kennedy, Hudson and Cahill are all under contract for a few more seasons and seeing as how the team's batting average was only .250 last year, I don't believe that Towers will be breaking the bank to bring in a veteran arm when the team is already moving in the right direction.

Odds: 100 to 1

Atlanta Braves

Much like the Diamondbacks, the Braves are a team that already has a solid pitching core that features the likes of youngsters Tommy Hanson and Brandon Beachy, along with veteran hurler Tim Hudson.

Their biggest concern is an anemic offense that ranked 22nd in the majors last year, so if the team has any money to spend, it will be on hitters.

Also, let's not forget that the Phillies will do everything they can to keep Hamels from signing with a division rival.

The only possible way I see the Braves making an offer to Hamels is if they trade Jair Jurrjens for an MLB-ready hitting prospect this season, but that's still stretching it. Atlanta has two great pitching prospects in Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran who could immediately step into Jurrjens' spot should a trade happen.

Unless another mega-deal is pulled off that sends those two to another team for a top hitter, I don't see Hamels headed down south.

Odds: 75 to 1

Baltimore Orioles

Once again, the Baltimore Orioles are in a rebuilding mode and plan to work with some homegrown talent to get them back into contention. New GM Dan Duquette (pictured) has not gone out of his way to sign A-list players so far this offseason and given the trends of the team's front office the past few years, I highly doubt that they have the money that a top free agent like Hamels will demand.

More importantly, Hamels has been used to winning his entire career and given the inconsistency of Baltimore's offense along with the fact that they haven't had a winning season in 14 years, I highly doubt that he'll trade in a winning attitude to be the face of a rebuilding franchise. 

Long story short, the only way that I see Hamels ending up with the O's is if team owner Peter Angelos pulls a Jeffrey Loria and whips out some secret horde of cash that he was saving for a free-agency shopping spree.

Yet, given how some great free agents were available this offseason, I just don't see it happening.

Odds: 250 to 1

Boston Red Sox

Here we have a team that may have a legitimate shot at signing Hamels. The Red Sox may have two big contracts coming off the books next season: that of pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, and also third baseman Kevin Youkilis if his option is declined.

Combine that with the money saved by letting Jonathan Papelbon walk this offseason, and GM Ben Cherington could have some funds to work with after the 2012 season.

Still, the Red Sox have a lot of money tied up elsewhere. Following next season, they'll still have millions committed to payroll thanks to long-term deals belonging to players like Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.

Still—and this is coming from a Yankees fan who watches the Red Sox front office's moves like a hawk—don't be so quick to put them out of the Hamels race. With a rabid army of fans that brings in a lot of money along with their own TV channel, the Red Sox could surely put together some funds to bring in a stud pitcher like Hamels.

They would do well to bolster a rotation headlined by two solid arms in Jon Lester and Josh Beckett.

Odds: 7 to 1

Chicago Cubs

Much like the Baltimore Orioles, the Chicago Cubs are in full rebuilding mode as new front office chief Theo Epstein is concentrating more on cleaning up former GM Jim Hendry's mess than he is on signing big-name free agents. The team was reportedly in on Prince Fielder at one point, but then acquired a much cheaper first base option in prospect Anthony Rizzo.

More importantly, the Cubs' current payroll is crippled by Alfonso Soriano's contract and it is clear that Epstein wants to rebuild from the ground up, given his shopping of Matt Garza and asking for multiple top prospects in return.

Some money will come off the books after the 2012 season when pitcher Ryan Dempster becomes a free agent, but it probably won't be enough to bring in someone like Hamels. Also, we again have a situation where he would be the face of a franchise looking to win eventually rather than immediately.

Still, if the team shows significant improvement this season and Epstein manages to find a taker for Soriano's contract, then there's the slight possibility that Hamels could find himself on the North Side.

Odds: 70 to 1

Chicago White Sox

After an extremely disappointing 2011, White Sox GM Kenny Williams went into housecleaning mode and traded away fan favorite Carlos Quentin and future All-Star closer Sergio Santos.

It's clear that he's not happy with the way the team performed in 2011 and has not been shy in his manner of sending a message. If the deal involves the right prospects, he'll make it.

Yet, with the departure of Mark Buehrle, Williams also showed a commitment to the future with some cards he already had by anointing John Danks the new ace of the staff with a five-year contract extension worth $65 million. He also hired former fan favorite Robin Ventura as the new manager, a move that will either make or break the franchise.

That being said, will Hamels take his talents to the South Side? Well, I'm not entirely sure. The ChiSox's greater need at this point is an offense that will score significant runs on a regular basis and provide support to a pitching staff that is talented, but can still be hit or miss.

Here's my theory: If the White Sox can go toe-to-toe with the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central race this year and if they lose the race solely because something was missing in the pitching department, then I believe that Williams MIGHT work some magic with the payroll to bring Hamels in.

Still, to do so would require some pretty aggressive magic. Given the size of the team's budget, such a signing is unlikely.

Odds: 40 to 1

Cincinnati Reds

Looking at the Reds rotation, there really isn't much of a need for another arm. Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto will provide a solid enough one-two punch and if an offense that ranked seventh in runs scored last year can continue to improve together, then Cincinnati will definitely make a run for the NL Central crown.

Also, GM Walt Jocketty is probably more focused on agreeing to an extension with All-Star second baseman Brandon Phillips than he is on spending hundreds of millions of dollars on some outside talent in Hamels. The motto goes, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it," and the Reds team that took home the NL Central in 2010 is still very much intact.

Thus, Hamels' services are not needed here.

Odds: 1000 to 1

Cleveland Indians

The Indians' Opening Day lineup last year was one full of young players, the oft-injured Grady Sizemore and the impressive Shin-Soo Choo. Despite low expectations, the team was actually in first place for much of the first half of the season and finished just two games under .500 following a second half collapse.

Still, take a look at the team's depth chart here. Even with Derek Lowe's contract coming off the books after the season as well as that of the oft-injured Travis Hafner (option for 2013), it's still pretty obvious that the Indians don't have the money necessary to land a free-agent ace like Cole Hamels.

He'll demand at least five years and $100 million, and Cleveland would be able to offer little more than maybe two years and $30 million.

To be perfectly blunt, it's just not going to happen.

Odds: 1000 to 1

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies committed over $100 million to a pitcher a decade ago, and they ended up learning that lesson the hard way.

Hamels is a much better pitcher than Mike Hampton (pictured) ever was, but something tells me that the experience scarred the front office enough to never venture down that road again.

Odds: A million to 1

Detroit Tigers

There are two reasons why the Detroit Tigers don't have a shot at signing Cole Hamels. First, they just committed $214 million over nine years to Prince Fielder, possibly the second best free agent on the market this offseason.

Second, pitching staff ace and reigning AL MVP Justin Verlander will hit free agency in 2014 and unless he suffers a career-ending injury this season (baseball gods forbid), the team should be committed to saving as much money as possible going forward so that they can bring him back.

Thus, Hamels will not sign in the Motor City.

Odds: 2 million to 1

Houston Astros

2012 is going to be a bittersweet season for the Houston Astros, as it will be their last in the National League before they move to the AL West for 2013, possibly with a new name. Still, new owner Jim Crane (pictured) has a big to-do list for the coming season.

He first needs to find a way to unload two bad contracts in outfielder Carlos Lee and pitcher Wandy Rodriguez and make sure that some top prospects will be brought to Houston in return.

Second, he has a tough task ahead of him in turning around a team that lost a franchise-worst 106 games in 2011.

More importantly, Crane has already planned to rebuild the Astros from within and not spend a lot of money going forward. Looking to commit close to $20 million a year to Cole Hamels defeats that purpose.

Odds: Infinity to 1

Kansas City Royals

Last year finally proved to Royals fans that good things do indeed come to those who wait, as prospects like Eric Hosmer and Danny Duffy debuted and gave the team some hope for the future.

GM Dayton Moore also kept busy this offseason as he traded outfielder Melky Cabrera to the Giants for lefty Jonathan Sanchez so that the pitching staff could have a veteran leader with playoff experience.

That being said, given Moore's commitment to the farm system, I don't see him rushing to get the Royals back into the playoffs by going out and signing a top free agent like Hamels. He would certainly help the team, but would have to be patient through the rebuilding mode before finally getting back to the postseason.

Also, Kansas City is an extremely small market and the odds of them having the money to even make Hamels' consideration list are slim to none. He's going to want to win on a major stage, and he won't do that in KC.

Odds: 500 to 1

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have had a very expensive offseason, committing a total of $365 million in contracts for free agents Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson as well as an extension for second baseman Howard Kendrick. 

Given that, along with the fact that Vernon Wells and his horrible contract are still on the books, SoCal native Hamels will not be playing for the Angels in 2013.

Odds: Infinity to 1

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers' future in the free-agency world heavily depends on who ends up buying the team in the very near future, but regardless of who the new owner is/what they plan to do with the team, I can still see Hamels ending up in Dodger Blue.

The team's most expensive player right now is Matt Kemp, as he signed an eight-year, $160 million extension after the 2011 season was over. With Andre Ethier coming off the books after 2012 and the rest of the roster being fairly inexpensive, there's reason to believe that the new ownership could make a run at Hamels to add a solid veteran with championship experience to the rotation.

Sure, the Dodgers' primary concern should be improving an offense that finished 21st in runs scored last year, but Hamels could form a solid one-two punch with incumbent ace Clayton Kershaw at the top of the rotation for a team that certainly has what it takes to contend.

On top of that, Hamels is from San Diego, so playing close to home is always appealing.

Odds: 12 to 1

Miami Marlins

The normally stingy Marlins threw everyone a curveball this offseason when they brought in three A-list free agents: pitchers Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle and shortstop Jose Reyes. This was certainly out of character for team owner Jeffrey Loria, as he spent a combined $190 million on this trio. 

The crazy part is that he might not be done yet, because according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Marlins are also rumored to be in on Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who will also cost a pretty penny.

The Marlins already have a solid rotation that features the likes of Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco, but there's still a slight chance that Hamels could join them in 2013. Fellow pitchers Anibal Sanchez and Carlos Zambrano both hit free agency after the season and while both have their strengths, Hamels is a better option than the both of them combined.

Yet, the fact remains that the Miami Marlins are in the same division as Hamels' Philadelphia Phillies, so it's sure as hell that Philadelphia management will do everything in its power to not only keep their stud lefty in a Phillies uniform, but to keep him from defecting to a divisional rival.

Odds: 25 to 1

Milwaukee Brewers

The odds of Cole Hamels being on the Milwaukee Brewers radar depend on a few factors. First, current Milwaukee ace Zack Greinke is also a free agent after the 2012 season and if he has a good year as well as a good postseason (assuming Milwaukee gets there), then team management will definitely want to bring him back.

The same can be said for Greinke's teammate Shaun Marcum, who also had a solid regular season while putting up unsatisfying numbers in the playoffs, but he is a lot more replaceable than Greinke.

The Brewers also need to think about the impending free agency of outfielder Corey Hart, whose contract expires at the end of 2013.

Yet, if Greinke should depart the Brewers for another team, then Hamels could become the top target for a rotation in need of an arm to complement Yovani Gallardo in the rotation. He would fit perfectly as the new ace in Milwaukee and bring an impressive postseason resume to a team that made it to Game 6 of the NLCS in 2011 and is so close to the Fall Classic.

Still, unless he has a horrible season, chances are the Brewers will focus all offseason efforts on re-signing Greinke, with Hamels as a backup option.

Odds: 20 to 1

Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins are coming off one of the most disappointing seasons in franchise history and have already brought in the power-hitting Josh Willingham to both enhance offense and fill the void left by Michael Cuddyer.

Throw in the fact that catcher Joe Mauer is currently signed to an eight-year deal worth $184 million, and chances are that the small-market Twins have very little money to spend going forward.

However, I highly doubt that they'll be able to put together a financial package necessary to lure Hamels to play in Target Field.

Odds: 100 to 1

New York Mets

The New York Mets might as well be called the New York Mess, as owner Fred Wilpon is mired in drama caused by the Bernie Madoff scandal to the point where he had to take out a $40 million loan from Bank of America in November.

It's gotten so bad that Bud Selig may soon put the team under MLB control until a new owner can be found.

Thus, forget the fact that the Mets play in the same division as the Phillies or the fact that Philadelphia will pull out all the stops to keep Cole Hamels away from a rival team. The key factor here is that the Mets signing Hamels would mean forfeiting a draft pick to the Phillies and given the state of their farm system, the Mets need all the draft picks they can get.

They won't be signing Hamels or any top free agents for a while, and by that I mean at least a couple of years.

Odds: Infinity to 1

New York Yankees

If there's one team potentially excited about Cole Hamels signing a one-year deal this offseason, it has to be the New York Yankees. The team has a lot of money coming off the books after the 2012 season, so bringing in Hamels is definitely an option for 2013.

Still, while Hamels would be a great fit in New York, the Yankees don't necessarily need him. The rotation's top three spots are shored up for a while with CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda all under team control for the long term.

Also, the team has two top pitching prospects in Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos, who will be MLB-ready in the next year or two.

That being said, unless Cashman trades those two prospects for a top hitter in the near future, it doesn't look like the Yankees will be itching to sign Hamels once he hits free agency. However, that appeared to be the case with Mark Teixeira before the 2009 season, and look what happened there.

The Yankees may not have such a dire need for Hamels, but Cashman is sneaky when it comes to the offseason and thus, the Bronx Bombers shouldn't be ruled out.

Odds: 5 to 1

Oakland Athletics

Ever since GM Billy Beane employed his famous "Moneyball" approach, the Oakland A's have rarely ever pursued any big-name free agents. In fact, they're often more than happy to ignore them.

They haven't changed that tune this offseason, so there's no reason to believe they will at the end of 2012.

Odds: With a shout-out to Star Wars, 725 to 1

Philadelphia Phillies

It's no secret that out of all the teams that will definitely pursue Hamels, the Phillies are the one with the best shot at landing him. He has been with the franchise since being taken with the 17th pick in the 2002 draft. Save for his fluke 2009, he has been one of their most consistent pitchers.

Hamels was instrumental in helping Philadelphia win the 2008 World Series and in a sense brought a winning culture back to the team.

That being said, there's no telling how Hamels will handle the Phillies pitch to keep him next offseason. He could be loyal and stay with the team through thick and thin, or he could be scared off by the prospect of core guys like Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins getting old and thus want to move on to a younger upstart team.

Also, it should be noted that the Phillies have a lot of money tied up in the team already, with five players on the team besides Hamels due salaries of $10 million or more in 2011, and two of those five due $20 million.

There's no telling where Hamels will end up in 2013, but when it comes to teams that will go after him, Philadelphia probably has the best chance at signing him.

They've made surprise bids before, and there's no doubt that they'll do it again.

Odds: 2 to 1

Pittsburgh Pirates

The perennially-losing Pittsburgh Pirates may be on the road back to contention, but they still aren't at the point where they'll spend big money on free agents. In fact, it was reported in 2010 that the team actually made a profit from losing in 2007 and 2008, which in itself is mind-blowing.

On top of that, the Pirates are a small-market team with very little money to spend on free agents, the biggest names brought in this offseason being infielder Clint Barmes and catcher Rod Barajas. Still, not pursuing Hamels isn't necessarily a bad thing for the Bucs, who have pitching prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon just a couple of seasons away from making the major league roster.

Thus, GM Neal Huntington will just sit back and watch the bidding war on Hamels rather than take part in it, as he remains committed to rebuilding from within.

Odds: 500 to 1

San Diego Padres

The Padres are in the midst of some drama regarding the transition of full ownership to former Diamondbacks executive Jeff Moorad and he himself has said how any moves made in the future "will be baseball decisions and not financial decisions."

The odd part is that the impending free agency of Cole Hamels and what to do about it is a decision that falls into both categories. Yet, seeing as how the Padres have already traded star pitcher Mat Latos to the Cincinnati Reds for Yonder Alonso plus prospects and have also acquired outfielder Carlos Quentin, it seems that they won't be spending a lot of money any time soon.

However, let's not rule the Padres out of the Hamels sweepstakes just yet. There's no telling how much money the team will have to spend on players once (and if) Moorad completely takes over and if the situation is similar to that of the Washington Nationals, Hamels could become a target for a young Padres team looking to contend. Plus, the fact that Hamels is actually from San Diego doesn't hurt either.

It's a slim shot, but let's keep our eye on this one.

Odds: 100 to 1

San Francisco Giants

As enticing as Hamels may be, San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean has one priority both this season and possibly next offseason: re-sign Matt Cain and save money for Tim Lincecum. Cain hits free agency for the first time in 2013 and given how important he is in the Giants rotation, keeping him in San Fran should be first priority for the team's front office.

Also, Tim Lincecum just signed a two-year deal worth $40.5 million and will hit free agency once it expires. Seeing as how the two-time Cy Young Award winner is even more important to retain than his teammate Cain, there's no way the normally frugal Sabean will throw over $100 million at Hamels when he already has two World Series-winning pitchers to worry about bringing back.

Still, if Cain should depart, Hamels could find himself in the mix.

Odds: 500 to 1

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners hit an MLB-worst .233 as a team last year, but their pitching ranked 15th with a respectable 3.90 ERA. As great an addition Cole Hamels would be to a pitching staff led by Felix Hernandez, this team's first priority going forward is going to be improving the offense.

This offseason, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, GM Jack Zduriencik made an offer to Prince Fielder.

Even if the Mariners did make Fielder an offer, they are still a small market team and chances are the deal wasn't at all near the amount the Tigers ended up paying. Still, depending on how the team's offense looks next season and how next offseason's free-agency market pans out, Hamels could be a remote option to set up a lockdown one-two punch at the top of the rotation.

However, as I've said many times before, Hamels is going to want to go someplace where he can win or at least contend fairly quickly. In the Mariners' case, he'd be joining another rebuilding project.

Odds: 2000 to 1

St. Louis Cardinals

Seeing as how Albert Pujols turned down a contract that was worth around $200 million, there's no doubt that the St. Louis Cardinals will have plenty of money available come 2013. The only key free agents the team has to worry about from within are catcher Yadier Molina and pitcher Kyle Lohse, and at least one of them should re-sign. Regarding first baseman/outfielder Lance Berkman, my best guess is that he'll retire.

Thus, if the scenario plays out in that manner, the Cardinals will have the opportunity to make a significant offer to Hamels and given the state of the team, he may strongly consider it.

St. Louis won a World Series in 2011 and their team going into 2012 looks just as good, if not a little bit better, and should still contend in the NL Central for years going forward.

Also, who wouldn't get excited at the prospect of being part of a pitching rotation featuring Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright at the top, not to mention a fine young talent in Jaime Garcia?

Simply put, I hope that Phillies management is keeping an ear open regarding the Cardinals plans for the future, because Hamels could factor greatly in them.

Odds: 4 to 1

Tampa Bay Rays

Easily the best young team in the majors, the Tampa Bay Rays plan for future success rides on a young starting rotation that features David Price and "Big Game" James Shields at the top. Youngsters like AL Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson and prospect Matt Moore are also expected to be a big part of the team going forward, so the rotation seems set for now.

Aside from that, however, the Rays seem to be taking the same route as Miami Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria (minus the dishonesty) and not spending big money on players until a new stadium can be built.  Given the high price tag of Hamels, chances are he won't be headed to this part of Florida any time soon.

Odds: 500 to 1

Texas Rangers

Though Rangers ownership would probably foam at the mouth at the prospect of landing a great arm like Cole Hamels, they probably won't even throw their hat in the ring once he hits the market. Rather, Nolan Ryan and GM Jon Daniels will focus their time and energy on re-signing outfielder Josh Hamilton, who has played a large role in taking the team to two consecutive World Series appearances.

More importantly, the Rangers already shelled out the big bucks for a pitcher this offseason, spending over $110 million on Japanese sensation Yu Darvish ($51.7 million posting fee, $60 million contract over six years). They also appear to be discussing an extension with lefty Derek Holland.

The Rangers are also going to be operating at a deficit until 2015, when a new TV contract begins. Thus, it just doesn't make sense financially to throw $100 million or more at Hamels.

Odds: I hate to say it, but a million to 1

Toronto Blue Jays

Earlier this offseason, it was rumored that the Blue Jays were on Prince Fielder's free-agency wish list. With money available now that he has signed with Detroit and a budding offense that will add some competition to the AL East, the Blue Jays now could use that money in 2013 to bring in a free agent like Cole Hamels.

Unfortunately, I just don't see it happening. Toronto already has a solid top of the rotation in Ricky Romero and strikeout machine Brandon Morrow, and guys like Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil will only continue to get better. The team ranked 24th in the majors with a 4.32 ERA last season, but I have a feeling it will improve as a whole in 2012.

Thus, unless the pitching takes a big step back while the offense does well, the chances of Hamels taking his talents north of the border seem unlikely.

But hey, you never know.

Odds: 75 to 1

Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals made a big free-agency splash last offseason when they signed Hamels' now-former Phillies teammate Jayson Werth to a seven-year deal worth $126 million. This year, they traded prospects to acquire Gio Gonzalez from the Oakland A's and subsequently signed him to a five-year extension worth $42 million.

Then, they were apparently in on the Prince Fielder sweepstakes.

Even though his team has yet to make the playoffs, money does not seem to be an object for team owner Ted Lerner as he appears to have given GM Mike Rizzo free reign with the checkbook and if they were in on Fielder, chances are they'll make a big run at Hamels next offseason.

If I were Hamels, I'd be very enticed by the idea of pitching in a rotation with Stephen Strasburg, Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann, though it'd be hard to accept not being the ace of a staff.

Still, baseball is a business and money talks. The Phillies will do all they can to keep Hamels from going to a team that plays in the NL East, but the Nationals offer could be too good to pass up and would also allow Hamels to keep his home in nearby Glen Mills, Pennsylvania.

The Nationals are going to be a team to watch in 2012. If they can bring Hamels in for 2013 and beyond, they'll be the team to beat.

Odds: 3 to 1