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Super Bowl 2012 Odds: Breakdown and Predictions for Giants vs. Patriots

Jeff GrantContributor IJanuary 23, 2012

Super Bowl 2012 Odds: Breakdown and Predictions for Giants vs. Patriots

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    The New York Giants and New England Patriots will meet in Super Bowl XLVI in 13 days inside Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, which should end up being the most-watched sporting event in television history.

    Las Vegas sports books are also expecting a near record handle for the event, as the Patriots are currently three-point favorites, and the total has settled in at 55.

    Both teams are certainly familiar with the other side, lining up against each other in both the preseason and regular season this year.

    Let's take a closer look at this highly-anticipated game from a betting perspective.

Peyton Manning's House

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    Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning didn't take a single snap during the 2011-12 season, but casual fans in the area will certainly be rooting on his brother inside Lucas Oil Stadium on Feb. 5.

    It's important to note that a Super Bowl crowd is much different than any other in the NFL, with a lot of tickets being cast aside for corporations and bigwigs. 

    There's no question that Giants quarterback Eli Manning would love to win his second ring inside the walls of Peyton's house.

Regular Season Meeting

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    The New York Giants tallied a 24-20 win over the New England Patriots as nine-point road underdogs in Week 9, which ended up affecting both teams in different ways.

    New York went on to lose four consecutive games after that upset win, while New England hasn't tasted defeat since.

    From a handicapping perspective, the Patriots were in a bad situational spot in coming off a 25-17 road loss versus the Pittsburgh Steelers the previous week. 

    Las Vegas oddsmakers developed this line knowing that the casual bettor will likely wager on the underdog Giants due to the regular-season result.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots QB

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    New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will get his chance to exact revenge against the New York Giants for a loss in Super Bowl XLII.

    The Patriots were handed a 17-14 loss in that contest as 12.5-point favorites, ruining the chance of completing a perfect 19-0 season.

    There's no doubt in my mind that the revenge factor played a major role in developing this line in Las Vegas.

    Brady will get his chance in 13 days.

Eli Manning, New York Giants

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    New York Giants signal-caller Eli Manning has proven to be an elite player in the NFL this year, but maybe he's belonged in that category since winning Super Bowl XLII.

    Manning will be driven to win another ring and move completely out of the shadow of his older brother Peyton.

    The No. 1 overall pick in the 2004 NFL draft is also one of the best underdog quarterbacks in the league, which makes the NFC champions dangerous inside Lucas Oil Stadium.

Betting Trends

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    Sports bettors will definitely be drawn to wagering on the New York Giants due to their 8-0 against-the-spread (ATS) record as playoff underdogs, while the New England Patriots are 1-7 ATS as a favorite in that situation.

    Betting trends are often overrated, but the underdog has covered the spread in four of the last five games in this series.

Prediction

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    I developed my handicapper line immediately after the NFC Championship Game, establishing the New England Patriots as one-point favorites.

    It clearly signals a play on the New York Giants.

    I was very careful in not placing too much emphasis on recent results, as the Giants were clearly the most impressive team during the first three rounds of the 2012 NFL playoffs.

    The New England Patriots are known for winning Super Bowls by three points anyway.

    Pick: New York Giants (+3.5)

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