Gio Gonzalez Traded to Nationals: Is He the Most Overrated Pitcher in MLB?

In football, it's the big quarterback with the rifle arm. In Basketball, it's the lanky, seven-foot guy with the wingspan who can seemingly dunk from anywhere around the basket. 

In baseball, it's a left-handed pitcher who can strike guys out. 

To be sure in any of these sports, if you get your hands on one of these types of players and they work out, then your franchise is going to be in pretty good shape for the duration of their careers. 

Plenty of teams take their shots at these guys and they don't always work out as planned. 

For every John Elway there's a Dan McGwire or a Ryan Leaf, or a Jeff George. 

For every Dwight Howard or Shaquille O'Neal there's a MIchael Olawakandi, Greg Oden or Sam Bowie. 

Everyone listed above was at one point "can't-miss," but some of them did miss, in fact they missed badly. 

Today the Washington Nationals consummated a trade for Oakland's Gio Gonzalez. 

Gonzalez is—or was—the big name floating around the trade rumor mill. He was headed to Boston, or New York, or Miami, or Toronto. Eventually, he ended up going to the Washington Nationals for a package of four fairly impressive minor league prospects. 

Washington gave up a fair amount, of course three of the four players are without any major league experience. The minor league numbers do look good, but there are no guarantees. 

Ironically, the player that Washington got in return is also not a "guarantee" as well. Gio Gonzalez is good. He's going to be a decent pitcher next season. He could be very, very good, but there are also a few factors that may make him a bit of a disappointment.

Last Saturday the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds consummated a similar deal. In that deal the Reds sent three top prospects and a major league pitcher whose career had been affected by injuries as well as a positive test for a Performance Enhancing Drug the past two seasons. In return the Reds got back 24-year-old Mat Latos. Latos is a big, right-handed throwing pitcher who had an excellent 2010, got off to a rough start in 2011 and then turned in a stellar second half that really cemented the high trade value that San Diego sought to take advantage of.

Gio Gonzalez will be 26 next season on Opening Day. On the surface, his 2011 numbers paint the picture of a solid left-handed starter who can only get better. Gonzalez was 16-12 with an earned run average of 3.12 last season. He also had 197 strikeouts in 202 innings pitched.

Yet he is 26 years old. He's already entering what is generally considered the "peak" of a typical career (ages 26-30). Last season Gonzalez led the entire American League in walks. He walked 91 batters. Gonzalez was tough to hit, so his whip ratio was still a somewhat respectable 1.317, but it wasn't too tough to get men on base against Gonzalez.

Gonzalez did flash real dominance at times last season. Gonzalez, having played for Oakland, also got to pitch in Oakland a fair amount. Oakland is one of the American League's best pitchers' ball parks. In Oakland Gio Gonzalez was 10-5 with an earned run average of 2.70. His whip at home was 1.227. On the road Gonzalez was a touch more mortal: 6-7 with a 3.62 earned run average. His whip was a downright unimpressive 1.424.

Washington does not play in a ballpark that favors pitchers in the same manner in which Oakland does. Washington does, however, play in the National League where the lack of a designated hitter generally makes things a bit easier on starting pitchers.

There are still some very tough offenses in the National League, though. The Miami Marlins in particular threaten to have a fairly tough lineup next season. When Gonzalez squared off against the good offenses last season, he had some real tough outings. 

Gonzalez got two starts against the Boston Red Sox. He combined to last 11.2 innings in those games. His earned run average was 6.17, he had a whip of 1.629 and also allowed four home runs. 

Gonzalez also got two starts against that tough Yankee lineup last season. In those two starts he went a total of 11.0 innings. He had an 8.18 earned run average and his whip ratio was 1.727. 

The Texas Rangers were the only inter-division opponent who had a tough lineup last season. Gonzalez only did end up with two starts against the Rangers and just like with the other top lineups in the league, he struggled. His earned run average was 4.22 and his whip was 1.594. 

To be sure, Gonzalez won't be facing lineups like this in National League too often, but the Nationals are clearly making a push to get the team to the postseason. Once that happens, the Nationals will face the tougher lineups. That's been a real obstacle for Gonzalez. 

Playing in Washington may be a decent spot for Gio Gonzalez. He'll be able to hopefully (for the Nats) improve. It doesn't change the fact that he was probably never worth the dogged pursuit that teams such as Boston and Toronto were rumored to have been engaged in. 

There are other pitchers rumored to be available via trade who are better big-game pitchers, such as Matt Garza, and there are starters such as Gavin Floyd who could be had for a more reasonable price. It's not Gio Gonzalez's fault he was overvalued in the current major league trade market but he was.