Andrew Luck and Stanford to a BCS Bowl: Remember the Alamo

After a wild weekend of improbable upsets in college football, the Stanford Cardinal have suddenly reappeared at the BCS doorway, according to many observers. 

The popular wisdom says the Fiesta Bowl should be a lock for Stanford, with the Rose Bowl a distinct possibility and even the National Championship Game not out of the question. What a fitting end that would be for Stanford’s season and for the storied collegiate career of Heisman hopeful and surefire NFL star QB Andrew Luck. 

Not so fast. 

I’ve attended three of Stanford’s last four games—the thrilling triple-OT win at USC, the beatdown at the hands of Oregon and the Big Game win over Cal—and the Cardinal have regressed from their unbeatable form of September and October. 

If Stanford doesn’t bring its proverbial “A game” to its regular season finale on Saturday against Notre Dame (No. 22 in the BCS poll, with only one loss since early September), it could find itself left out of the BCS festivities and instead making hotel reservations for the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio on December 29. 

Stanford’s recent problems exist on both sides of the ball. On offense, Luck sorely misses his most dependable receiver, TE Zach Ertz, who injured his knee on the opening kickoff at USC on October 29 and hasn’t played since. Ertz’s injury didn’t keep the Cardinal from pulling off its heart-stopping 56-48 win over USC, but opposing defensive coordinators clearly have welcomed his ensuing absence

With Ertz gone, the normally dependable TE Coby Fleener has had some uncharacteristic drops this month, and matchup nightmare TE Levine Toilolo has been maddeningly inconsistent with head-scratching dropped passes and some questionable routes. 

Luck has also lost his fleet senior WR Chris Owusu, who suffered back-to-back concussions against USC and Oregon State. Like Ertz, Owusu did not play in the loss to Oregon and the victory over Cal. His absence has deprived Luck of a legitimate deep threat, as Stanford’s other WR, former walk-on Griff Whalen, is a Wes Welker clone without elite separation ability.

Heralded frosh WR Ty Montgomery showed some flashes against Cal, scoring the opening TD on an end-around, and will need to step up against the Irish, as Owusu's concussions may spell the end of his career. 

The unsettled receiving corps has allowed opposing defenses to begin to contain the Cardinal’s vaunted power running game. 

And, Luck has seen more pass rush pressure the past few weeks as well, leading to more sacks and INTs (including two pick-sixes) in the last four games than in the previous seven. He’s appeared almost mortal at times with his accuracy and decision-making, leading some pundits to declare the Heisman Trophy to be there for anyone’s taking.  

The final offensive flaw for Stanford has been its placekicking. Starting PK Jordan Williamson was injured during pregame warm-ups at USC and missed three games. He returned to kick the game winning FG against Cal but may not be 100 percent. 

On the other side of the ball, the once-proud Stanford defense has been wracked by injuries and has surrendered seven touchdowns to USC, six to Oregon and four to Cal. The front seven clearly misses LB Shayne Skov, the unit’s leader and top tackler who was lost to a season-ending ACL injury in September. 

The secondary has been riddled by USC's Matt Barkley, Oregon's Darron Thomas and most recently, Cal’s Zack Maynard. And with good reason, as five Stanford DBs, including three starters, have been injured. Things have gotten to the point where one of the Cardinal’s most effective DBs against Cal was fifth-year senior Corey Gatewood, who until this month had been listed on the depth chart as a third-string WR.

It hasn’t helped that Stanford’s natural grass playing surface has been a slippery mess the past two weeks. As noted previously, the playing field at Stanford Stadium is about 30 feet below ground level, almost near the level of the local water table. The slick surface seemed to affect the Cardinal against Oregon and Cal, and with more rain forecast this week, the field will likely again be a giant slip-n-slide come Saturday.

All of which means that Stanford (which has beaten Notre Dame only once in the last four meetings in Palo Alto going back to 2003) better regain its offensive rhythm and tighten up on D, no matter what the playing conditions are like.

Or else the Fighting Irish may pin a disastrous L on the Cardinal, which in turn could mean bye-bye BCS, and hello Alamo Bowl.