Milwaukee Brewers: Predicting Each Starting Pitcher's 2012 Season

The offseason is starting to gain steam, and it is time to look at the starting rotation for the Brewers. It seems like one of the only parts of the team with any stability going into 2012.

Assuming all five starters from 2011 are back in 2012, let's take a look at what kind of numbers they might put up next year.

1: Yovani Gallardo

2011 Stats: 17-10, 3.52 ERA, 207.1 IP, 206 K, 1.22 WHIP

Projected 2012 Stats: 19-8, 3.15 ERA, 210 IP, 220 K, 1.20 WHIP

What He Did in 2011

In 2011, Gallardo had the most productive season of his young career. He posted career highs in innings pitched, strikeouts, wins, and career lows in ERA and WHIP.

He also became the first Brewer to strikeout 200+ batters in three consecutive seasons.

When the Brewers made the trade for Zack Greinke in the 2010-11 offseason, there was talk about who would be the leader of this Brewers rotation. In my mind, Gallardo emerged as the clear ace of the starting five.

His command has gotten better every year, and 2011 proved he has the grit, talent, potential and drive to be a Cy Young-contending ace.

Gallardo was also the most effective Brewer starter in the playoffs, posting a 2.84 ERA over 19 innings in three starts.

What He Will Do in 2012

Gallardo will continue to improve in 2012, and he could very well turn in monstrous numbers.

The stats I listed above were fairly conservative—I fully believe he can post an ERA below 3.0.

He throws a good four-seam fastball at 92-95 mph, a tight slider in the mid-80's, a fantastic curve in the upper 70's to lower 80's, and in 2011 began throwing a very good cutter in the upper-80's.

He turns 26 in February and still has his best years ahead of him. The Brewers have a pitcher that is capable of great things, and I fully expect Gallardo to improve on his numbers from 2011 as he enters his prime as a pitcher.

He now has a good amount playoff experience under his belt and exceptional command over all his pitches. If he can cut back on surrendering home runs, he has the potential to be a top five starter in the NL.

With four great starters behind Gallardo, the pressure is off to carry the starting rotation on his back,  as he was forced to do in 2009 and 2010.

He will again be the ace for this team, and he will continue to be the standard of pitching for the Milwaukee Brewers. He actually has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in Brewers history.

2: Zack Greinke

2011 Stats: 16-6, 3.83 ERA, 171.2 IP, 201 K, 1.20 WHIP

Projected 2012 Stats: 18-10, 3.45 ERA, 215 IP, 225 K, 1.25 WHIP

What He Did in 2011

The Brewers acquired Zack Greinke in a blockbuster trade that sent a slew of Milwaukee's best prospects to Kansas City in exchange for the former Cy Young winner and shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt.

Zack Greinke's regular season debut got off to a rocky start after being delayed for a month due to a broken rib suffered during a pick-up basketball game.

He came out of the gates extremely slowly, posting a 5.29 ERA in May and an alarmingly high 6.04 ERA in June.

Despite this, he was better than his early ERA indicated. During that stretch he went 7-3, and had 80 strikeouts in 66 innings.

After May and June, Greinke returned to form and put together a very good year with the Brewers that proved he was worth the talent that had been sent to Kansas City.

He posted a ridiculous 10.54 K/9, and he and Gallardo became the first Brewers starting duo to strike out 200+ batters in the same season.

Greinke did not post the insane numbers of his 2009 Cy Young campaign (2.16 ERA, 229.1 IP, 242 K), but he did prove he has what it takes to bounce back from injury and be a very good starter.

And he never lost at home.

What He Will Do in 2012

Greinke has lost some velocity on all his pitches, but he still sits well with a 93-mph fastball, a nasty slider, and two good curveballs. His drop in velocity is not alarming, as he has outstanding control.

I don't know if Greinke will post the same types of numbers he did in 2009 (heck, I'm not sure anyone will), but it is fair to assume he will still be very good.

As long as he stays away from basketball this offseason and avoids injury altogether, Greinke's first full, injury-free season as a Brewer could be very exciting to watch. It will be interesting to see the dynamic between Gallardo and Greinke moving forward, and I believe the fact that these two guys are potentially elite pitchers will help push both of them to new heights.

Greinke never had that in Kansas City, and Gallardo never had it in Milwaukee before Greinke arrived.

He might not post Cy Young numbers, but again, the stat line above is somewhat conservative. I expect his stats to improve in 2012, and I predict he and Gallardo will account for one of the best one-two punches in baseball.

3: Shaun Marcum

2011 Stats: 13-7, 3.54 ERA, 200.2 IP, 158 K, 1.16 WHIP

Projected 2012 Stats: 14-9, 3.62 ERA, 205 IP, 167 K, 1.19 WHIP

What He Did in 2011

Shaun Marcum was the other big acquisition for the Brewers last offseason.

The Brewers were forced to part with one of the best pure hitting prospects in all of baseball, sending Bret Lawrie to Toronto in exchange for the solid pitching of Shaun Marcum.

It was a move that, for the most part, paid off.

Marcum did about as well as anyone expected him to. He ate a lot of innings, commanded the ball extremely well and missed a surprising amount of bats despite his subpar velocity.

Marcum has a fastball that sits at 87-88 mph, but relies heavily on his very good changeup in the upper 70s that he commands with ease. 

Marcum was excellent on the road, but he struggled in the hitter-friendly confines of Miller Park, which certainly inflated his ERA. He also seemed to show fatigue, as he struggled down the stretch, and put together what would politely be called a disastrous postseason.

What He Will Do in 2012

Shaun Marcum is arbitration-eligible this offseason and will likely get a fairly decent raise going into 2012.

I predict Marcum will post similar numbers to last season, and he will continue to perform well as the No. 3 starter for the Brewers. 

Marcum will likely never have great numbers pitching in Miller Park. He relies heavily on fly balls, and Miller Park is just too friendly to the hitter for that. 

Despite this, Marcum should post an ERA in the mid-threes. He will give the Brewers 200+ innings of work, which is very solid pitching from a No. 3 starter.

There have been talks about extending him this offseason, but I think it would be wise to wait to make sure Marcum can put together back-to-back full seasons free of injury. If he can keep his stamina up through the end of the season, extension talks would make more sense at that time.

If he does those things, Marcum could be offered a multi-year extension from the Brewers by the end of 2012.

4: Randy Wolf

2011 Stats: 13-10, 3.69 ERA, 212.1 IP, 134 K, 1.32 WHIP

Projected 2012 Stats: 13-9, 3.84 ERA, 210 IP, 140 K, 1.29 WHIP

What He Did in 2011

Randy Wolf did exactly what the Brewers needed him to do in 2011—he gave the Brewers over 200 innings, pitched well in most of them and provided a veteran presence in the locker room.

His numbers in 2011 were solid, and while his peripheral stats were unexciting, he was still able to keep the Brewers in most of the games he pitched in.

What He Will Do in 2012

Wolf is entering the final year of his three-year deal with the Brewers and is set to make around $10 million this coming season. While this is a lot of money to pay a No. 4 starter, it is important to remember Wolf was signed with the intentions of being the No. 2 starter in this rotation.

He still posts great numbers, despite his age and position in the rotation.

Wolf doesn't do it with power. His best pitches are his fastball, which sits at 89-90 mph, and a big sweeping curveball in the upper 60s.

He typically has good command and that should continue in 2012.

I expect this trend to continue. Don't expect anything too exciting from Wolf—he is going to eat innings, strike out a few batters and keep the Brewers in games.

Wolf excels as a No. 4 starter. The Brewers are lucky to have him and will continue to be lucky to have him in 2012.

It should be worth noting that Wolf, despite entering his mid-30's, has posted the most innings for a Brewers pitcher two years in a row. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain that durability next year.

5: Chris Narveson

2011 Stats: 11-8, 4.45 ERA, 161.2 IP, 126 SO, 1.39 WHIP

Projected 2012 Stats: 10-6, 4.25 ERA, 145 IP, 114 SO, 1.35 WHIP

What He Did in 2011

Narveson had a productive year as the No. 5 starter in this rotation. Had it not been for a bizarre injury to the thumb on his throwing hand suffered while trying to fix his baseball glove, he very likely would have thrown 200 innings.

Narveson has a similar pitch profile to Randy Wolf but is able to miss more bats with his curveball.

The Brewers couldn't have asked for more out of Narveson in 2011, and it's very likely he will be back as the No. 5 starter in 2012.

What He Will Do in 2012

If Narveson makes the rotation again in 2012, we will probably see similar numbers to what we saw in 2011. The reason I have him pitching fewer innings is because I believe the team is going to give a few starts to major league prospect Wily Peralta.

There is also the possibility Narveson is moved to the bullpen in 2012. He is a lefty, and the Brewers currently lack a lefty in the bullpen. If the Brewers aren't able to acquire a lefty in free agency this offseason, Narveson is the best left-hander the Brewers have.

Wily Peralta would then be promoted as the fifth starter for the team.

Narveson is still fairly young at 29, so he is likely entering his prime years as a pitcher. If it becomes apparent before the trade deadline the Brewers are not producing enough offense, Narveson could be offered as trade bait for a team needing a solid middle of the rotation starter.

On most teams, that is what Narveson is worth.

Possible Additions to the Rotation

Wily Peralta

2011 (minor league) Stats: 11-7, 3.17 ERA, 150.2 IP, 157 K, 1.235 WHIP

As I mentioned, Peralta is ready to pitch in the majors, and I think he will be on the opening day roster in some capacity.

If the Brewers decide to move Narveson to the bullpen, he is the best in-home option to fill the void and the only prospect in the farm system that is ready to start in the majors. 

Peralta brings good heat, with a fastball that sits at 93-94 mph. He also throws a slider in the low 80s and has a changeup, both of which are above-average pitches.

If Peralta is put into the starting rotation in place of Narveson, he will likely post solid numbers but may get roughed up a few times as he attempts to figure out major league hitting.

CJ Wilson

2011 Stats: 16-7, 2.94 ERA, 223.1 IP, 206 K, 1.19 WHIP 

The Brewers have been mentioned as a possible suitor for free agent CJ Wilson this offseason.

Bringing Wilson to the Brewers would mean they would not be able to extend both Greinke and Marcum. It would also cost a whole heap of money to have Wilson wear a Brewers uniform.

While Wilson's numbers are great—I don't buy into everyone that says he is overrated—I still do not believe he is a good fit in Milwaukee. The Brewers need to spend money on areas of the team that need serious improvement.

The starting rotation is not one of those areas.

Nevertheless, if he is brought in by the Brewers, Wilson will provide another dominant arm. With Gallardo and Greinke, they would arguably provide the best starting rotation in the majors.

Mark Buehrle

2011 Stats: 13-9, 3.59 ERA, 205.1 IP, 109 K, 1.30 WHIP

Like Wilson, Buehrle has been connected to the Brewers this offseason. And like Wilson, Buehrle is a great pitcher who I don't think would fit well with the team.

Buehrle is an innings eater and gets through games riding his defense and inducing fly balls. The Brewers do not have a good enough infield to help make Buehrle successful in 2012, and as I mentioned earlier, Miller Park does not hold fly balls very well.

Buehrle will still pump out a couple good years—it was only two years ago when he threw a perfect game. But I do not think it would be wise for the Brewers to be the ones to swoop in and get him.