Jet-Tisoning Favre the Wrong Move? Not So Fast

Eric Balkman by Correspondent Written on December 15, 2008
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Before you dismiss my opinion, let me say that I am a Brett Favre and Green Bay Packer fan. Now, I am rarely on one end or the other in most polarizing discussions, but I was definitely in the Favre court before Green Bay traded him. 

As soon as he said he wanted to come back, I would have welcomed him back, traded Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, etc., and groomed Brian Brohm as my quarterback of the future.

Favre was a better choice at quarterback at the time and he gave the Pack a much better chance to win than Rodgers did.

Obviously, that wasn't the route that Ted Thompson chose to go, and that's fine—I am not an NFL GM and I trust Thompson to be a lot more informed about the subject of professional football than me.

Now, I'm a big Rodgers fan, too—he seems to have broken the Jeff Tedford curse, plays really well in cold weather, and has a great season going as a first-year starter. Let's break it down a little further:

The Jets, who finished 4-12 last year had the third-easiest schedule in the NFL this year (according to Pro Football Prospectus). Their out-of-division opponents featured "cupcake" games against Cincinnati, Oakland, Kansas City, St. Louis, San Francisco, and Seattle (combined record 17-68-1).

Their "tough" games were against Arizona, Tennessee, and Denver (combined record 28-14).  Green Bay's non-division "cupcakes" were against Jacksonville and Seattle (combined record 8-20—the only two sub-.500 teams GB has played overall except for one game against Detroit). 

Their "tough" opponents were Dallas, Tampa, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Carolina (combined record 60-24). Say what you will about the two teams' talent levels, but it's obviously pretty clear that Green Bay has had an incredibly tougher schedule.

Another thing to look at is that the Packers were 5-2 (including playoffs) in games in 2007 decided by a touchdown or less. This year? 1-6.  Now you can say that, "Well, Brett Favre is Captain Comeback and he would have led the Pack to wins in all of those games.

Rodgers would have choked those close wins all away in '07."  Maybe you're right. But I'll submit that over the past decade in the NFL, most teams are so closely balanced that it is nearly impossible to win a high percentage of close games year after year. The law of averages is probably showing itself here.

Also, Aaron Rodgers—always much maligned for his inability to stay healthy—has been the iron man this year, playing through a pretty gruesome shoulder injury for the better part of a month.

And for a team that was relatively injury-free in 2007, Green Bay has been decimated by injuries this year, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

(Note that Rodgers and his offense have rarely been blamed for losses this year. And when they have, it was usually because of their inability to run the football. Rather, it has been the defense that has periodically let the team down late in games.)

The trade of defensive tackle Corey Williams has been huge, as teams have gutted the Pack's run defense up the middle en route to dominating football games against Green Bay. There's no Nick Barnett (torn ACL) to stop running backs there, and an out-of-position A.J. Hawk has also struggled to shake a nasty chest injury that has obviously affected his play.

Atari Bigby—who broke out in 2007—has also finally admitted what we kind of knew all along:  He has been playing hurt since Week Three. That injury, along with Nick Collins inability to stay healthy, has forced Charles Woodson to play safety—a position that he has never played before in his career.

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written on December 15, 2008 Opinion

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