Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: What Is Frank Mir Thinking?

2 days after Christmas the future of UFC’s heavyweight division will be decided. Champion Brock Lesnar will be incredibly interested as his next opponent will be decided inside the Octagon. But for this fight, the name "The Jui-Jitsu Jungle" would be a far more apt moniker for the setting.

Two of the greatest practitioners of the Brazilian art of submission will clash in the "Jungle." That name fits so well because both Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Frank Mir will have to be tentative, or face a vicious strike from a wild animal. The only question going in to this showdown is who will take the role of the predator, and who will become the helpless prey.

For me, that question has an easy answer. In my mind the scenario is clear; it will be "Minotauro" who hops onto the top on the cage to celebrate, amidst the heart roars of his South American fans.

I do not for one second doubt Mir’s ability. He has pure, ruthless power and he already has a win over current champ Lesnar. But the words of a very famous song come to mind when I think of this fight: "Anything you can do, I can do better."

In every aspect of the sport, Nogueira has the advantage. His stand-up is significantly superior to Mir’s. The Brazilian’s quick combinations have the ability to wreak havoc on Mir. And after that famed shot from Lesnar a few months back, will Mir be mentally ready to take Nog’s biggest shots and keep coming forward? Who knows?

But it is worth noting that Mir did beat Lesnar. Another thing of importance was that Mir won that fight on the ground via submission. So it makes sense for Mir to go to the ground then, yes?

Well, no. Mir’s jui-jitsu is good, but again it is dwarfed when compared to Minotauro’s ground game. If the fight does go to the canvas, Nogueira has a distinct advantage. One mistake, no matter how small, could result in Mir tapping out, something he as never done before

My Prediction: If you haven’t guessed yet, I’m going for Nogueira. His overall superiority means that the only chance I’m giving Mir is that of the puncher. Expect the fight to go to the ground sometime, probably relatively early in the second.

From there I see Minotauro slapping on an arm bar and becoming the first man to make Mir submit. Like a Brazilian Indiana Jones, Nogueira will exit the jungle unscathed. But unlike the Harrison Ford movies, don’t expect a sequel.

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