Philadelphia Phillies: The Red Empire Has the Money To Win It All

Throughout the year, the belief was that the Philadelphia Phillies had sacrificed the future to put together their loaded pitching rotation.  The Phils were out of prospects—they had to win now.  The team, everyone thought, was low on money to spend for the future.

Well, we can throw that talk away. 

If anything, the Phillies are more set to go all the way in 2012 then they were going into 2011. 

Here's why.

No Longer Overpaying for Back Pain

I know—the title seems a little harsh.  But when you take a look at what the Phillies paid for Lil' Roy—and the production they got—you can see that the team was ripped off.

Roy Oswalt 2011 Statistics

• Salary: $12,000,000
• Games Started: 23
• Record: 9-10
• ERA: 3.69

To those who don't know too much about baseball, this may not seem so bad.  However, if we compare Oswalt to some other pitchers in the league, a problem becomes apparent.

Pitcher #1 2011 Statistics

• Salary: $418,000
• Games Started: 29
• Record: 13-10
• ERA: 2.95

Pitcher #2 2011 Statistics

• Salary: $432,000
• Games Started: 32
• Record: 16-5
• ERA: 3.95

These two pitchers produced better numbers in more starts then Oswalt.  But it's not the difference in production that will yield the biggest boon to the Phillies this year.  The most important figure is salary.  The salaries of these two pitchers together don't even come close to 10 percent of Oswalt's salary. 

The simple thing is that while Oswalt still has it in him to be a good pitcher and benefit the Phillies, he isn't worth the $12 million we would have to pay him to do it.

The two pitchers I used for this example were Jeremy Hellickson and Derek Holland.

DOWNSIDE: loss of a good pitcher who has back problems.

UPSIDE: $12 million to spend.

No Longer Paying Closer Money to a Reliever

Last year, the combined salaries of the Phillies' entire bullpen almost equaled the salary of Brad Lidge by himself.  That for a guy who only appeared in 25 games.  That should be enough to justify getting rid of Lidge.

In 2008, I would have been hunted down and beaten mercilessly with the "LOVE" sign from 15th and Market.  In 2009, I probably would have gotten a 50/50 response—but would still have been hunted down by the Lidge Loyalists and beaten with possibly smaller objects.

Now, after the 2011 mostly Lidge-less season, I think I might be safe.  Simply put, the Phils are overpaying Brad Lidge.  $12 million is just too much for a guy that will work innings 5-7.  That's closer money, or in some cases, setup-man money.  But it is definitely not middle-of-the bullpen money.

For more perspective, let's take a look at the payroll of the Phillies bullpen.

• Ryan Madson: $4,800,000 (Probably going to be near $12M in 2012)
• Antonio Bastardo: $419,000 (Seriously?)
• Michael Stutes: $414,000
• Kyle Kendrick: $2,500,000 (And we are way overpaying for him)
• David Herndon: $425,000
• Jose Contreras: $2,500,000

Add those up.  Like I said at the beginning, too much money for far too little production. 

Maybe after the free agent market kicks Lidge around, he'll come back for less money—but the current price tag just doesn't fit.

DOWNSIDE: losing an average pitcher who could pitch 1-2 innings.

UPSIDE: $12 million to spend—and Charlie doesn't have to feel so bad when he sits him.

Easily Replaceable Outfielder Gets Replaced

We all knew this was coming.  This had to happen. 

Raul Ibanez will always have a place in Philadelphia.  But it will be because he can't sell his house in this market—not because he plays for the Phils.

The Phillies paid Ibanez $11 million in 2011.  He was our highest paid outfielder, making about $4 million more than both Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence.  Did his play warrant that kind of pay? 

Not at all.

Ibanez was a liability (though not as much as Pat Burrell) on defense.  He was streaky at best on offense and his base running never inspired fear in pitchers, catchers, or old ladies with walkers.

Raul made so much money because we were all on a high coming off the 2008 World Series Championship.  He helped bring us a parade, and the majority of us would have done his laundry if he asked. 

But it's 2011. 

We have had two seasons of under-producing.  We've seen what great outfielders look like.  They have speed on the base paths, patience at the plate, and quickness in the outfield.  We have seen enough of the patented Ibanez crazy swing—a swing that can't hit any low and outside pitch.

We spent last year yelling "Rauuuuuuulllllll", when we should have been yelling "Platoooooooonnnn".  Raul will be easily replaced by the power-hitting young righty John Mayberry, or the easily-forgotten, would-be savior Dominic Brown. 

By the way, both of those names mentioned are making a total of $414,000.  Just food for thought.

DOWNSIDE: having to buy a new jersey if you only had Raul's.

UPSIDE: $11,500,000 to spend and a steady stream of speed in the field and on the bases.

The Aces are Locked In

Don't get me wrong, our starting pitching staff costs a lot of money.  A LOT OF MONEY.

• Roy Halladay: $20,000,000
• Cliff Lee: $21,500,000
• Cole Hamels: $9,500,000 (Arbitration Eligible)
• Vance Worley: $414,000
• Joe Blanton: $8,500,000 (I know, it's ridiculous)

That's just about $60 million committed to starting pitching.  Still, the Phils are certainly happy with their pitching staff, perhaps aside from Joe Blanton.

With the departure of Roy Oswalt, we have cut the fat (metaphorically of course, since the fat one is still there).  We have four quality starters and trade bait going into next season.

But here's the best part:

• Roy Halladay: signed through 2013
• Cliff Lee: signed through 2016
• Vance Worley: rookie, not going anywhere
• Cole Hamels: arbitration eligible, will get new contract this off-season
• Joe Blanton: please trade

So with the exception of Joe Blanton, who we want gone, our pitchers are locked in for quite a while.  Expect Cole to get a good contract this year, since the Phillies would end up paying him an arm and a leg in arbitration if they didn't.  And our feel good story of the year, The Vanimal, is just a rookie and won't cost us much.

Roy, Cliff, and Cole will ensure that the Cy Young trophy makes annual trips to the City of Brotherly Love—and we wouldn't have it any other way.

DOWNSIDE: arbitration for Hamels is going to be rough

UPSIDE: Cy Youngs, NL East titles, NL Championships, and World Series Titles.

Full Season with the Weird Dude

How can you not smile when you see Hunter Pence?

Even better, how can you not smile when you see Pence and realize he will be wearing red pinstripes until at least 2014?

DOWNSIDE: haven't found one

UPSIDE: Really?  Do I have to go there?

Most Postions Don't Need Upgrading

Let's not act like the Phillies are in need of full-on rebuilding.  Most of the pieces we need to win a World Championship are already in place.  I've already discussed the pitching, so now let's take a look at what our field will look like in 2012.

Outfield

• Left Field: John Mayberry Jr. or Dominic Brown
• Center Field: Shane Victorino
• Right Field: Hunter Pence

All good there—no improvement needed.  If Dominic Brown is half the player we hope he is, he will drastically improve our production out of left field.  If not, John Mayberry has shown he has the ability to be the guy we need.

Infield

• Catcher: Carlos Ruiz
• 1st Base: Ryan Howard
• 2nd Base: Chase Utley
• Shortstop: hopefully Jimmy Rollins
• 3rd Base: Placido Polanco

Only one position is questionable—shortstop.  Will Jimmy get the contract he wants?  I'm not sure, but I'm confident Ruben will work out a good deal they will both be happy with.  The only other possible change is an upgrade at third base. 

While I don't believe it is possible to find a better defender than Polanco, Placido's bat could definitely use a little more pop.  There are affordable options out there—we just have to wait and see what happens. 

World Series Champs 2012?

Is it possible?  Can the Phillies reach the pinnacle they attained just four years ago?

Only time will tell.  But if they don't, it won't be because they couldn't afford it...