At least it appears that way on the surface. Just look at how opposing quarterbacks have fared against the Dolphins since they were torched by Tom Brady and company for 517 yards in Week 1.
It’s really not all that impressive, and the 284.0 passing yards/game is a little bit misleading. While the names on the list are not necessarily the most impressive, it’s not like Tebow is Tom Brady or Philip Rivers.
Granted, they have managed just two interceptions, but overall they have not played that poorly.
Throw in the fact that the Broncos’ former top receiver Brandon Lloyd is now in St. Louis. Would it really be surprising to see Tebow struggle throwing the football?
There’s also the fact that things are different than when he ran the show for the final three games in 2010.
John Fox is a much more run-oriented coach. While they could be forced to throw if they go down big early, does anyone really see that happening?
Considering the state of the receiving corps and the way Willis McGahee has been playing, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him attempt around 25 passes. That’s going to limit his upside (although the ball has to go somewhere, so I wouldn’t downgrade Eric Decker).
The fact of the matter is that his value stems from his feet. He rushed six times for 38 yards and a TD in Week 6. Over the final three weeks of the 2010 season he averaged 66.3 yards and a TD per game.
He should continue to be given ample latitude to take off and scramble. Is it a lock that he scores a TD, though? With McGahee in place, who can handle goal line carries, it’s hard to depend on. Without it, his value will be severely limited.
With all that said, here’s what I would project for him in Week 7 at Miami: 180 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 40 rushing yards.
He can surpass those numbers, but there also is a significant amount of risk of him falling short of them as well.
The potential for a rushing TD is what drives him up many people’s rankings, though it’s hard for me to guarantee he gets that. Thus, it’s hard for me to trust him as a QB1.
His potential struggles and inconsistency through the air make him a significant risk (as we’ve seen from some poor games from Cam Newton). Until we see he’s matured and can produce in the new system, I would proceed with caution.
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