The Carolina Panthers will travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons at the Georgia Dome Sunday looking to earn the best start in franchise history with a 9-2 record.
The Panthers won the first meeting on Sept.28 in Charlotte, 24-9. The Panthers' defense was the story of that day, as it held Falcons QB Matt Ryan to 27-of-41 completions for 158 yards and no touchdowns.
It allowed contained Michael Turner, who was then the NFL's leading rusher, 56 yards and no touchdowns on 18 carries.
Panthers QB Jake Delhomme had his best game of the season, going 20-of-29 for 294 yards and two scores. Tailbacks Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams combined for 109 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries.
The Panthers were still working through their penalty issues, but the defense almost always picked up the slack from those penalties.
Carolina also had home field advantage.
This time the Falcons have home field advantage, where Michael Turner has scored eight of his nine rushing touchdowns. Turner also averages half a yard more per carry at the Georgia Dome than away from it. The Panthers' rush defense, despite being ranked only 17th in the league, has only allowed two rushers to gain 100-plus yards in single game. Neither of those backs is Turner.
Matt Ryan completes 67.5 percent of his passes at home—13 percent better than he is on the road. He's also thrown for 145 more yards, averages 3.7 more yards per play, is much less mistake-prone, has been sacked 10 times less (the offensive line is obviously far better, too), and has a passer rating 38 points higher at home than on the road.
But the Panthers' pass defense averages only 185.4 yards allowed. That matchup is more or less a draw. But if I had to give an edge to one, I'd give it to the Panthers' D.
Atlanta's defense is giving up yards points per game at home this season. That has to rank near the bottom of the league. To boot, only two of the Falcon's home opponents, the Broncos and Saints, were any good offensively.
Even more importantly, the Falcons' run defense ranks 22nd in the league. That probably won't go over well against a Panthers run offense that now ranks sixth in the NFL (133.6 yards per game) after combining for 454 yards and four touchdowns against the Raiders and Lions in the past two weeks.
Granted, Oakland and Detroit have crapshoot run defenses, but the Falcons' rush defense isn't much better.
Falcons DT Grady Jackson, who is pivotal in his team's rush defense, is questionable with a knee injury. DE John Abraham, who is a key figure in Atlanta's pass defense with 11 sacks (tied for third in the NFL), is questionable as well with a neck injury. Neither player practiced yesterday.
If Panthers QB Jake Delhomme is going get back into his rhythm for this stretch run to end the season, this week will be his best chance to do so. The Falcons' pass defense ranks 22nd, like their rush defense.
11 comments Last one added 7 months ago — Leave a Comment
Forrest Willoughby 7 months ago
Ummm, you have some good points, but Adam Jennings doesn't return punts for the Falcons anymore. Actually he isn't even on the roster. I think that Delhomme is going to have to be a lot better than he has been these last two weeks. DeAngelo and Stewart can carry the team against the Raiders, but the Falcons are far superior. Each week the Faclons have improved, and while they have only played one team over .500 in the Dome, that game came down to a dropped pass by Roddy White. It should be a good game. How Peppers and Abraham play will determine the game.
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Mark Jones 7 months ago
Hey, uh, forrest, you kinda forgot something: Matt said in the article that Abraham is questionable. So even if he does play, he certainly won't be close to 100%.
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Matt Gilmartin 7 months ago
I knew that Jennings' place on the Falcons' roster wasn't certain. I looked at his profile on NFL.com, and it said he had played with the Falcons and the Lions this year. But I wasn't sure which team he was currently with; and I thought it would sound better to have him on the Falcons, but I didn't know for sure. Plus, past Jennings, I don't know who returns punts for the Falcons. So that kinda messes up that piece of the article.
Okay, so you're saying that the Falcons have "improved" to having the 22nd-best defense in the league? Yeah, that's real improvement. I think DW and Stewart can hold their own, especially behind an offensive line that's 100 percent healthy for the first time in forever.
Yes, I know that the Falcons should have won last week, and I believe I said that in my NFL picks article. But their performance at home still hasn't really wowed me.
If the game comes down to Peppers vs. Abraham, then the Panthers should win. Peppers has been HOT lately, and Abraham is questionable with an injury I don't remember at the moment. Think about it: 100 percent healthy, on-a-major-hot-streak Peppers against he-might-not-even-play Abraham. As if that wasn't enough, I think your player who will be matched up across from Peppers is hurt. And we have our best offensive linemen, LT Jordan Gross, across from Abraham, from what I understand.
Anyway, like you said, it should be a great game. Good luck!
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Mark Jones 7 months ago
Great article, Matt. 5 star, POTD.
I hadn't noticed until earlier this season that the Panthers punt returner is Mark Jones. No relation to me, of course (lol).
Lots of comparison in that article: it really gave me a feel for the game. i guess that's why it's the 4th featured article on the NFL page, and it should be the second, because #3 and #2 are injury reports (why the heck are they featured?).
I think the Panthers win, 24-14. I'm relieved Abrahams is questionable, he is always an issue to delhomme.
Funny how in the series stats carolina leads in points scored at wins, but Atlanta has 200 or so more yards.
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Matt Gilmartin 7 months ago
As cheesy as this sounds to me, thanks for the compliment.
Yeah, I was starting to wonder when you'd realize that our punt returner has your name. It must be cool to have one of the Panthers' players with your exact name. But I didn't figure he was of any relation to you.
Glad the comparisons worked for you. I wasn't thrilled about the structure because I did everything out this time, out of order. But obviously I got everything in there, despite how confusing it was to make sure of that with everything jumbled around, and that's good. Obviously it worked, too. Success on B/R is all about getting reads, and my guess is that those articles have more reads because they cater to a wider audience and everyone wants to see how the injuries affect their team and their team's opponent. It's not a big deal; though, I'm just thrilled to get an article on the front page. Usually those spots are reserved for the best of the best NFL writers, and I'm only in the top 20 or so.
I also think the Panthers win, only I refuse to bother with predicting the score. There are too many elements that could affect the outcome of any given game to allow a fan to try to effectively predict a final score. It really is great that Abraham (it's not Abraham(s), by the way) is questionable. No way he's 100 percent, which obviously means his performance suffers. Very good for us.
I thought that it was weird how we had more first downs and points scored; but they had more yards, too.
LET'S GO PANTHERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 9-2, all the way!
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Mark Jones 7 months ago
Oh, sorry, Abrahams was a typo---I know it's Abraham.
Anyway, I hadn't even noticed the article was jumbled, though now that you mention it, I guess it's a little jumbled.
LETS GO PANTHERS !!!!!! RAAAARRRRRRR! (lol)
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daniel cox 7 months ago
matt, adam jennings has been cut from the team. cut the week after the eagles loss.
i know, i know, largely inconsequential, but thought i'd point it out. rookie receiver douglas has been returning punts, as has finneran and a few others. they need to get norwood back there in both return games.
if norwood returns a kick/punt for a touchdown, atlanta wins. abe is questionable but he will be ready. i think you can expect a different sort of pass coverage in this one. run game, however--totally different story.
good job matt. can't wait for the game!
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Matt Gilmartin 7 months ago
Sorry, Daniel. I didn't know Jennings had been cut. NFL.com said he'd played for the Falcons and Lions this year, and I didn't think to check the record of the Falcons' transactions—which I actually just thought of as I was typing this response. Why do you say Atlanta wins if Norwood returns a punt or kick for a touchdown? Even if Abe plays, he will not be 100 percent. As much as I know you don't want to hear it, that's a great advantage for us and could very well wind up affecting the final score of the game.
Thanks, Daniel, 4:15 can't come soon enough!
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daniel cox 7 months ago
well, i think it does bode well for the panthers to have an unhealthy abe lining up across the way. however, to be cliche, who is healthy at this point? abe's played through some injuries in his time in atlanta and i think today will be no different. i think he'll have a good game. he's been banged up a few times this season and still played well.
i just think this game is going to be tight and something like points scored on special teams will be HUGE. if norwood, returns one, the dome will go nuts and that could really give the falcons the kind of momentum they may need to push past the falcons.
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Matt Gilmartin 7 months ago
Who would have thought that such an overwhelming percentage of the fans who participated in the poll in this article would believe that the Panthers would win? Most experts are picking the Falcons to win because of home-field advantage!
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Mark Jones 7 months ago
Yeah, it's 69.2% for the Panthers to 30.8% for the Falcons. Wow!
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