There's several things swaying me toward Ortiz in this fight. Mayweather's sixteen month lay-off is at the top of that list. Ortiz is young and in his prime. He moves well around the ring and packs power in an aggressive, stalking style.
Mayweather has relied so much on superior fitness, athleticism and reflexes throughout his career, as well as the quickness to get out of trouble and see punches coming. His greatest strengths are the ones that can't be taught, the natural gifts that separate the Mayweather's and Roy Jones' from the class below. And those are the ones with the shortest half-life. The candle that burns twice as bright lasts half as long.
Eventually, Mayweather will lose a split-second and in the fight game, that's all it takes. I think Ortiz finds him all night and eventually wears him down. Mayweather will have his moments. I do think it's going to be a great fight and will answer all of the questions about how much Floyd has left in the tank—and how good Ortiz is or can be. This will come down to aggressiveness vs. accuracy, but because of Ortiz' proven chin against bigger punchers, I think he avoids serious damage from Floyd's counters.
There's going to be a lot of Ortiz flurries that draw big reactions from the crowd, even when Mayweather blocks or rolls off of most of them. But the biggest thing for me is that I don't think Mayweather can avoid Ortiz all night—and I think Ortiz can walk through a lot of his punches.
I believe Mayweather will show signs of his age and Ortiz ekes out a decision in the ballpark of 7-5, with a couple knockdowns both ways. I think it will be very close and probably debatable, not dissimilar to Mayweather's first fight with Jose Luis Castillo.
The older man has diminished just enough to let Ortiz be effective. That's my gut. If it happens, the biggest casualty will be the super-fight with Manny Pacquiao, but maybe a new force will emerge in Victor Ortiz.
Or maybe I'm dead-wrong and Mayweather exploits and eviscerates Ortiz in a lop-sided fashion, to prove that he's still at the top of his game and arguably the best fighter in the sport. That's why they fight the fights.