In what appears to be a strategy of business 101, the Marlins picked up a reliever off of the scrap heap, inflated his value, and flipped him for a very promising return.
This is how you run a sports franchise. This is why in the 16 seasons the Marlins have been in existence, they have managed to win two Major League Baseball World Series championships, all the while having a penny-pinching low payroll.
The club hasn't wasted its time building a brand new ballpark or impressing fans. Instead, the club has put together a cast of players to win a championship, then sold those players off for new players that could be used for the next championship run.
The latest deal appears in the form of a closer who was acquired in an under-the-radar-type of deal. The Florida Marlins traded Kevin Gregg to the Chicago Cubs for an explosively talented relief prospect in Jose Ceda. Without even getting into the analysis, the Marlins won this deal hands down
But let's look a little further, to see exactly how foolish the Cubs were in this move.
Kevin Gregg is nothing special. When news broke that the Marlins were looking to unload Gregg, as a fan of the Indians, a team in need of relief hope, I simply shuddered at the idea of giving away anything of value for the still-powerful 30-year-old reliever.
Gregg owns a nice, but unspectacular strikeout rate. Couple that with a poor walk rate, and you have the makings of an okay reliever.
Gregg's move from a ballpark that greatly deflates home runs (as noted by Gregg's home run per fly ball rate of 5.15 percent as a Florida Marlin) to a ballpark that inflates them, will give him a considerable step back in value.
It is a positive that Gregg has improved his fly ball statistics, but we're still talking about a guy who was extremely fortunate to be playing in Dolphin Stadium.
We are also talking about a reliever that is coming off of an injury and is entering the back end of his career.
Jim Hendry and the Chicago Cubs must have decided that it was wise to acquire a cheap plan-B closer, then go into the season with
After coming off of a season in which Gregg made $2.5 million in his second season as a closer, there is no reason to believe that Gregg's arbitration figure will not head north of $4 million and stick to at least that number for 2009.
As a "reliable" closer, that is a fair price tag. However, there is little reason to believe that he will be closing in 2009 and there is even less of a change that he will be doing so in 2010.
Wouldn't it then have been equally as efficient to bring aboard a pitcher like Kyle Farnsworth? Farnsworth has some experience as a closer and wouldn't cost a top pitching prospect—arguably baseball's best relief prospect. If the Cubs wanted to, they could have upped the ante slightly and gone hard after Brandon Lyon.
Both angles would have brought aboard a reliever with similar talents, as well as landing one with closing experience if Marmol didn't work out. The dollar and year commitments might have been slightly higher, but not by enough to dissuade one from making such moves.
We aren't talking about some run of the mill prospect. We aren't talking about a failed starter who happened to catch on as a reliever. We're talking about a legitimate relief prospect. If one were to make odds about what current minor league player would become a closer, and a great one at that, Jose Ceda would be at the top of the list.
The soon to be 22-year-old right-handed fireball reliever has been absolutely dominant in the minors. Three years as a starter (to get in work) and the reliever has come a long way in building Ceda's stock, to the point where he was considered as the likely closer-of-the-future in a Chicago organization that consists of Carlos Marmol.
According to MLB.com,
He throws plenty hard, with a fastball that sits comfortably in the upper 90s and has hit triple digits in the past. His slider has sharpened considerably since he began working in relief in 2007.
The only real blip on Ceda's radar came in '07, when he missed some time with a sore shoulder. When he returned, he finished off the season with 23-and-one-third consecutive hitless innings.
Really, 23-and-one-third consecutive HITLESS innings?! If that doesn't sell you, I'm not sure what will. Although, I'll keep trying.
Entering the 2008 season, here are a list of highlights from around the web:
- Baseball America rated Ceda's fastball as the best in the Cubs system.
- John Sickels rated Ceda as a B- prospect, one of the best relievers in the game.
- Kevin Goldstein rated Ceda as a three-star prospect, stating, "fastballs that sit in the 94-97 mph range, and he has hit triple-digits on occasion. His slider is also a plus offering that features heavy two-plane break."
Goldstein even increased his praise of Ceda after the 2008 season, bumping him up to a four-star prospect. Further, Goldstein asserts that there is little doubt Ceda will be pitching late in games sooner rather than later. He cites members of the Cubs organization who believe Ceda is very close to being ready for Major League action right now.
This is a substantial gain from where Ceda was to start the 2007 season, when Sickels suggested Ceda was a long ways away.
While nobody will suggest that the Cubs shot themselves in the foot here, there is very little reason to believe they improved their club from an angle they couldn't have attacked via free agency.
Ceda's value, while an understandable luxury for a club with Marmol, Samardjiza, and Donald Veal, has got to be substantially higher than what the Cubs received for him.
That is, as I mentioned, would the Cubs be worse off with Farnsworth or Lyon for the next two or three years instead of Gregg? If so, by how much? I think it is reasonable to suggest that Ceda would more than make up for any possible deviation noted there.
8 comments Last one added 7 months ago — Leave a Comment
Craig Nuzzo 7 months ago
I am not a fan of the "closing" spot. I think Jim Hendry and company acted too soon on finding a new closer. What about just using Marmol and/or Samardzija to close?
It was a shame to see Jose Ceda leave so soon.
Your article title sums it up perfectly.
I hope Gregg doesn't end up as a Joe Borowski or LaTroy Hawkins for the Cubs.
Great piece!
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Brandon Heikoop 7 months ago
I really don't believe the Cubs were looking for a 'new' closer so much as they were looking for a reliable insurance policy. However, like you, I question whether or not Gregg will be that much more valuable then what is available on the open market (ie Farnsworth and Lyon).
Thanks for reading.
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Matt Poloni 7 months ago
Yeah, I don't think Gregg is being brought in to close. I think he's being brought in to do a role similar to what Bob Howry was supposed to do going into last season.
I don't know if the Cubs really want to go down the Kyle Farnsworth route again, either. He had good seasons in '01, '03, and '05, but hasn't really been anything special otherwise. He's too much of a hit-or-miss guy. Paul Wilson knows plenty about the "hit" part.
Brandon Lyon could be a good middle guy, I'm just not sold on his ability in the 8th/9th. His two highest ERAs as a reliever came in the years he was recording saves.
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Brandon Heikoop 7 months ago
Matt,
Farnsworth dominated in the National League. Those are the numbers that matter the most.
ERA is a terrible stat to use and even worse with closers. First, it entirely ignores inherited runners. Second, it dismisses any park or luck factors.
That being said, it is fair to disagree on either as options in high leverage roles.
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Matt Poloni 7 months ago
I'll admit, I'm not great at evaluating relievers that I'm not seeing on a regular basis. I haven't consistently seen Farnsworth pitch since 2004. But if you look at his WHIP (the number of runners he allows on base per inning) over his career, his best years are '01, '03, and '05. The other years are average to below average.
As far as what you said about ERA, if a player is giving up his own runs, then he's probably also allowing his inherited runners to score. And if you go to Baseball Reference.com, they have park adjusted ERA for all pitchers.
Just for future reference, what is a decent percentage of inherited runners scored? I know that it's a good stat, but I don't really know what is considered to be a "good" percentage.
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Brandon Heikoop 7 months ago
Matt,
WHIP is a mediocre statistic to use when discussing any pitcher, relievers included. The biggest issue is that it does not discuss 'luck' and it may also fall victim to poor sample sizes.
Looking at only what Farnsworth produced in the National League, we see that in 2002 and 2004, Farnsworth fell victim to poor fielding, allowing a very high BABIP (33 points above his career average).
While Farnsworth isn't going to produce a Papelbon-like statistical season, he isn't going to be required too. Yes, Farnsworth will walk 4 batter per 9ip, but he will also ring up 11 per 9.
I'm not really sure (/too lazy to look it up). I'm not even sure if Farnsworth has been unfortunate or otherwise. NRA, RA, RA+, etc all account for inherited runners by giving starters partial credit for the runs (instead of entire credit as in ERA) while giving some to the reliever. It's actually a remarkable difference in some cases.
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Matt Poloni 7 months ago
I really think this could end up being a mistake approaching Lou Brock proportions. For anyone who doesn't remember that trade, I'll outline it.
Cubs get:
RHP Ernie Broglio (7-19, 5.40 ERA in 59 games for Cubs)
LHP Bobby Shantz (11.3 IP, 5.56 ERA, 12 Ks for Cubs before retiring)
OF Doug Clemens (.230 AVG, 6 HRs, 38 RBIs, 9 Es in 182 games for Cubs)
Cardinals get:
Jack Spring (3 IP, 3.00 ERA in 2 games with Cardinals)
Paul Toth (never played major league baseball again)
Lou Brock (2713 Hs, .297 AVG, 888 SBs, 5-time All-Star with Cardinals; HOF '85)
I'm not going to say that Ceda is going to be a Hall of Famer, but he could be a very good reliever, which can be very difficult to find. I just don't see what is so great about Kevin Gregg that made this trade even.
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Brandon Heikoop 7 months ago
Matt,
You are exactly correct. The biggest question I have is 'What do the Cubs see in Gregg that they don't see in any number of Free Agent reliever?'
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