There is a lot of hype around Carlos Condit these days and, as much as I do really like the guy, I don't think he's as good as everyone thinks he is.
Let's take a realistic look at what Carlos has accomplished in the last year or so.
He fought Rory MacDonald and was undoubtedly losing the fight before earning a TKO in the closing seconds of the third round. Many thought that Condit was lucky to win that fight, as the stoppage was considered questionable.
After that, Carlos knocked out Dan Hardy. It was an impressive KO, but Hardy is one of the most overrated fighters in the division, so the victory didn't really mean as much as people made it seem at the time—especially when you look at Hardy's fights since then.
Following that victory, Condit knocked out Dong Hyun Kim with a flying knee. Another impressive win, sure, but what does beating Kim really mean? Kim almost lost to Nate Diaz, who is a natural lightweight.
Condit's win streak right now is impressive, but he has not been tested against an elite fighter.
BJ Penn is one of the greatest MMA fighters of all time and is coming off a draw with the No. 2 welterweight in the world, Jon Fitch.
Looking at this fight from an analytical perspective, I just can't see Condit winning. He definitely does not have what it takes to roll with BJ on the ground and I think Penn's boxing will be too much for Carlos to handle.
BJ is going to come into this one motivated because he knows a victory might earn him another shot at Georges St-Pierr; and that determination, combined with his remarkable skill set, will be enough to overwhelm Condit.