2011 FedEx Cup Playoffs: A Whole New Level of Unpredictability

As we head into the fifth installment of the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs, the level of parity and unpredictability we’ve seen in professional  golf this year may be taken to a whole new level—a $10 million level.

The last seven major champions have been first-time major winners, and just last Sunday, Webb Simpson became the 12th first-time winner on the PGA Tour this year when he captured the  Wydham Championship title.

For 13 years, golf fans pretty much knew that a slightly overweight lefty and a fella wearing a red shirt would be in contention at most big-time events.  

But that is no longer the case.

Tiger Woods didn’t even qualify for the 2011 FedEx Cup Playoffs and between age, a case of psoriatic arthritis and some family health issues that have taken a toll on him, Mickelson’s game has been in decline since early 2010.

Golf’s “regular season” has officially ended and the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup point standings will advance to the first round of the “playoffs,” which begin on Thursday at Plainfield Country Club in Edison, New Jersey.

Without diving too deep into the complex mathematics that make up the FedEx Cup point standings, here is essentially what you need to know:

1) The top 125 players in the regular season point standings advance to the playoffs.

2) Each playoff event is worth 2,500 points.

3) This means that any player within the top 125 will move into the top five with a win this week, and any player can mathematically move into the top five with a runner-up finish depending upon where others finish.  

4) The top 30 players advance to the Tour Championship where any one of the top five players can automatically capture the FedEx Cup title and $10 million with a win.

OK, now that we’ve gotten that ugly bit of mathematics out of the way, let’s look at what this all boils down to.

In the past, it has been quite easy to predict that one of the tour’s marque names would be holding the FedEx Cup and an over-sized $10 million check on the Sunday of the Tour Championship.

And in the past, this type of prediction has always been correct.  The four FedEx Cup winners have been Woods in 2007, Vijay Singh in 2008, Woods in 2009 and Jim Furyk in 2010.

All worthy champions most would say. 

But this year we might very well see a much different FedEx Cup champion. 

With the level of unpredictability we’ve seen on tour this season, Chris Stroud could wind up with a $10 million pay day just as easily as Luke Donald.

Would anyone be surprised to see Bryce Molder and Troy Mattesson in the top five heading into the Tour Championship?

Would anyone be surprised if a guy like Scott Piercy or Chris Couch won the Tour Championship and somehow stumbled into a $10 million pay day?

Welcome to the new PGA Tour, folks.

Surprise winners are nothing new in golf.  Throughout the game’s history, journeymen have occasionally come out of nowhere to win major championships, after which they tend to quickly fade from history and become nothing more than answers to tough sports trivia questions.  

But the FedEx Cup is a whole different can of worms in that it carries with it a $10 million first place prize.

It is not only possible, but based on the way the 2011 PGA Tour season has gone, some might even say likely that a little known player could walk into a $10 million pay day in late September. 

College and NFL Football have always trumped the FedEx Cup Playoffs in terms of interest and television ratings.  Golf’s only saving grace was that guys like Woods and Mickelson at least chipped into a small portion of the football fanbase if they were in contention during the playoffs.  

With Woods at home in Florida and Mickelson’s game about as unpredictable as the stock market, the PGA Tour no longer has that ace in their back pocket.

Guys like Nick Watney, Dustin Johnson, Luke Donald and Bubba Watson could wind up battling it out for the FedEx Cup title, in which case television ratings and general interest  will almost certainly be lower than in previous years, but might not take a complete dive off of a cliff.

However, if a guy like Bryce Molder or Chris Couch somehow walks into a FedEx Cup title and earns a $10 million pay day, well the tour may have themselves one big problem.

In past years, just the thought of such a thing would seem utterly ridiculous.  But this is the new PGA Tour, one where the only thing we know is that we have absolutely no idea which one of the 125 players in the field will win the FedEx Cup title and have a cool $10 million wired to their bank account on September 25th.

Tim Finchem, let the sleepless nights begin.

For more golf news, insight and analysis, check out The Tour Report.