NFL Week 11 Picks

Aaron LiebmanAnalyst INovember 13, 2008

10-4 last week, winning all of the 4:00 PM and prime-time games. Of course, I missed on such laugher picks as Detroit and Houston. Let's see this week.



New England over Jets: The Jets are coming off their biggest win in franchise history which means they'll be ready for their biggest disappointment, not in their franchise (there are too many of those to compete with), but this season at least. The Patriots represent their white whale, but New England is winning games differently.



Chicago over Green Bay: The Bears handed the Packers two of their three losses last season.  Chicago has won the last four games in Green Bay and with Kyle Orton set to return to the lineup, the Bears can pull the upset. 

The Packers' defense intercepted three passes last week, and even brought one back for a touchdown, along with a punt return touchdown, but mainly had problems staying out of their own end zone (whoever heard of two safeties in one quarter).

Atlanta over Denver: Atlanta in the playoff race? No, we're not talking basketball. The Falcons seem to be ready to take the next step forward—as long as they play teams with horrible defenses like Denver.

Tampa Bay over Minnesota: How Minnesota won last week amazes me. But Tampa Bay is the home team this week and are fresh off a bye. It seems whoever plays quarterback for Tampa Bay plays well, and the Bucs could be on their way of breaking that "NFC South Defending Champion" curse.

Pittsburgh over San Diego: Back in 2005, this proved to be the game of the year. 

The Steelers beating the Chargers enabled them to make the playoffs as the last seed and kept San Diego out of the playoffs. Pittsburgh may have a clearer path to the playoffs this time, and San Diego seems to have forgotten that to get to the Super Bowl, you must first qualify for the playoffs.

Jacksonville over Tennessee: That's right. For the second week in a row, I'm calling for the Titans to get their first loss. No, I don't hate the Titans or even dislike them. 

They just play games dangerously close. 

And Jags coach Jack Del Rio's discipline seems to be paying off. Another small, meaningless stat: Back in 2003, the 9-0 Chiefs traveled to the Bengals, and lost to the 4-5 team. And that Bengals team certainly did not have angels on it.

Dallas over Washington: Two teams battling who are for their playoff lives. 

Sure, they're both over .500 but in the NFC East, that is battling for your lives. Tony Romo's little ouchie seems to have healed, unless he has an injured hang nail, so that should at least give the Cowboys some confidence.



Giants over Baltimore: Only thing I'm worried about is a Giant letdown following impressive victories over division rivals Philly and Dallas. Plus, the Giants only loss came to the Cleveland Browns, the team the Ravens evolved from. Just a coincidence. But we'll see. 

It'll be interesting to see the Giants running attack versus the Ravens defense. The Giants have never beaten the Ravens, including the Super Bowl XXXV blowout.

Philadelphia over Cincinnati: It's as if the Eagles went to a doctor following the loss to the Giants and were told the remedy was a trip against the Bengals.



Miami over Oakland: This game could solidify the Dolphins as a true powerhouse. 

No, not because they're beating the Raiders, but because one of the teams in first place in the AFC East will lose, they could be primed for their first playoff berth since 2001.  This should be a practice game for them. I would just run the wildcat offense all game and give Pennington a rest.

New Orleans over Kansas City: So the Saints have an MVP candidate in Drew Brees, yet they are in last place. 

How does that happen: defense. 

The Saints can neither stop anyone nor create turnovers to help their offense. Chiefs QB Tyler Thigpen is emerging as a star in Kansas City and could give the Saints a headache. However, even though Thigpen gets the occasional touchdown reception, he is still just one player.

Buffalo over Cleveland: The Browns are another team that completely blew a sure win last week. The Bills, once thought of as Super Bowl favorites, let alone division champs, have now sunk to last place after three divisional losses. But last I checked, Cleveland did not play in their division.



Indianapolis over Houston: The Colts overcame a 17-point halftime deficit the last time these two teams met. This time it shouldn't have to be a comeback. 

Reggie Wayne is now the No. 1 receiver of the Colts, and Peyton Manning seems to finally know that and stop forcing it to Marvin Harrison.

Carolina over Detroit: Maybe the only thing easier for the Panthers would be if they played Oakland. Oh wait, they did already last week.

Arizona over Seattle: Battle of the former division champs versus the soon to be crowned ones.

San Francisco over St. Louis: I'm pulling for the 'Niners in this game mainly because I want Mike Singletary to get his first victory and then show his stomach. Hopefully play-calling duties will be eased away from Mike Martz.