AL East Prediction: The Boston Red Sox Will Win Division over New York Yankees

Thanks to a roster stocked with proven talent and featuring an MVP candidate, it would be hard to bet against the Boston Red Sox winning their AL East pennant race against the New York Yankees.

The Yankees have an experienced side of their own, and boast prodigious offensive firepower. Both teams rank near the top of many MLB statistical categories—especially offensive ones.

As of Wednesday, the Red Sox were clinging to a one-game lead over their fierce rivals. 

And come October, expect the Red Sox to still be ahead of New York.

Here's why.

Adrian Gonzalez

The All-Star first baseman is proving to be worth every penny the Red Sox paid for him in the offseason, batting .348 with 18 HR and 92 RBI.

Those impressive numbers have made Gonzalez the frontrunner to nab the 2011 AL MVP.

He has made himself an irreplaceable fulcrum in the Sox lineup, exerting a kind of influence no Yankee can rival. His batting average, and his knack for knocking in runs have been huge assets for Boston's offense.

That pure lefty swing can move mountains.

He is an absolute game changer for the Red Sox. He provides a consistent stream of offensive production that makes every other player that much better.

Oh, and did I mention he is a past Gold Glove winner?

Reliability

The Yankees are riding the arms of a few pitchers who have exceeded all expectations.

Guys like Bartolo Colon, Ivan Nova, David Robertson, and Freddy Garcia have enjoyed very productive seasons.

However, looking at their track record over the past few years, I doubt they will be able to continue to maintain this impressive pace.

Colon has not pitched more than 100 innings since 2005, when he went 21-8 with the Angels. That was also the last full season he had an ERA under 4.00 (2008 was an exception, as he posted a 3.92 ERA in only seven starts for the Red Sox.)

Nova is still a 24-year-old kid with precious little MLB experience. While his season is going well so far, (11-4, 3.85 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) there is no telling how he will fare in the unparalleled heat of an AL East pennant race.

Robertson's minuscule 1.35 ERA is well below his previous best, and comes in only 45.2 IP as a middle reliever. He has been solid in the past (3.82 ERA in 61.1 IP in 2010), but this year's numbers are far superior to any previous seasons.

Garcia is on a nice roll but he has not posted an ERA below 4.20 since 2005. He failed to pitch more than 60 innings in three out of his previous four seasons coming into 2011. With 122.1 IP worth of wear on his 35-year-old arm, can he hold on?

These are all players that are having an enormous impact on the season for New York thus far.

Will these guys continue their production? Maybe—but history would say otherwise.

And with Boston playing like one of the premier teams in baseball, the task becomes even more difficult.

Bullpen

Both teams have the luxury of elite closers, so the focus shifts to the middle relief.

Daniel Bard has solidified his place in the Sox bullpen since being called up in 2009. His 2.30 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and 53 K in 54.2 innings of work are stellar.

Alfredo Aceves has returned to his fine 2009 form—with the Yankees, interestingly enough—and has proven to be a fine off-season acquisition by Boston.

Dan Wheeler—if he can stay healthy—has proven to be a very effective middle-relief option in past stints with the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros. His numbers, if unspectacular, have been solid with the Sox (4.26 ERA, 32 K).

Yes, I know New York also has a very good bullpen, with Robertson, Boone Logan, and Luis Ayala in set-up roles for their ageless closer—and cutter maestro—Mariano Rivera.

However, Boston's bullpen has the chops to get the ball to Jonathan Papelbon with leads intact.

And that is all that matters.

Lineups

Ultimately I like Boston's line up better than New York's. The stats back me up, as well.

If you look at the batting averages of some key hitters and important run producers on the Yankees, they are worse when compared to the main contributors in the Red Sox lineup.

Mark Teixeira (.247 BA), Curtis Granderson (.275), and Nick Swisher (.268) are some top run producers in New York's lineup. Their power speaks for itself—Teixeira and Granderson have already reached 30 HR this season—but can they be counted upon to contribute on a regular basis with those kinds of poor batting averages?

Outside of Robinson Cano (.303) and the injured Alex Rodriguez (.295)—who has not played since his July 11 surgery—New York's lineup is littered with poor batting averages.

However, the Sox possess a number of good batting averages.

David Ortiz (.298), Jacoby Ellsbury (.314), Adrian Gonzalez (.348), and Dustin Pedroia (.309) are some of Boston's top run producers. Their averages are a boon—and give them a leg up on New York's key hitters.

It's not until you get to the dregs of the lineup—Marco Scutaro or Kevin Youkilis territory—that you see guys with averages below .280.

Oh, and Carl Crawford has started his comeback. He batted .359 in his last 10 games.

This line up is scary-deep.

To me, higher batting averages that go along with solid RBI/HR numbers present a key indicator of a lineup's ability to maintain rallies and produce runs on a consistent basis.

Getting those extra insurance runs to pad a lead, or chipping away at an opponent's lead with good hitting is a crucial asset in the heat of a pennant run.

Starting Rotation

Josh Beckett (9-4, 2.17 ERA) and Jon Lester (11-6, 3.32 ERA) have once again produced solid work at the top of the Sox rotation.

While losing Clay Buchholz (6-3, 3.48 ERA) to season-ending injury was a huge blow to the rotation, trade deadline acquisition Erik Bedard should help fill that void. Some reports have even listed Boston not ruling out a return for Buchholz before season's end.

Bedard was having a solid season in Seattle before the trade. He now has a 3.55 ERA to go along with a not-so-glamorous 4-7 overall record. If he can stay healthy, however, he provides the Sox with a good left-handed option—an asset in postseason play.

Tim Wakefield—the ageless wonder—has come through for the Red Sox in his last three starts; tossing more than 6.2 innings each time, and allowing three runs or less.

Wakefield always seems to put together a string of good starts late in the season. His quality starts have come at a crucial time, helping make up for John Lackey's lackluster disappointment of a season.

The Yankees' Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia, and Bartolo Colon have anchored the back-end of the rotation. So far they are out-performing their Boston counterparts Bedard, Wakefield, and Lackey, and have helped carry the Yankees up to this point. 

My problem with the Yankees rotation is what I discussed in the first slide. They are relying on pitchers who are either inexperienced (Nova) or have struggled with consistency in the past few years (Garcia, Colon).

The question now is; can those three Yankee hurlers finish the job?

I would not put my money on it. Lackey is too good not to lower that abomination of a 6.18 ERA. A veteran of stretch runs himself, he should be prepared to pitch much better as August wears into September.

In the end, I trust Lackey to turn it around and for Bedard to continue his already-solid season, giving Boston two dependable arms behind Beckett and Lester.

I do not trust Nova, Garcia, and Colon to back up C.C. Sabathia's Cy-Young caliber year. And don't even start with A.J. Burnett.