Overconfidence: Why the Giants Won't Win Superbowl XLII

Andrew SchiffAnalyst IJanuary 29, 2008

What a run!

Who would have thought that the New York Giants would be in Arizona competing in this Sunday's Super Bowl contest?  

It was one of the great accomplishments in this storied franchise's history, one that has had its share of ups and downs.

Few believed that the Giants were good enough to reach this point, even though they gave this week's opponent, the undefeated New England Patriots, an excellent contest in week seventeen.

Since that game, the Giants began to believe in themselves and were out to prove the doubters wrong. 

The team rallied around the idea that they were the underdogs.

First, it took a while for people to realize the Giants meant business.

Ok, so they beat Tampa Bay. That wasn't too shocking.

But when they defeated the top-seeded Dallas Cowboys (a team that defeated them twice in the regular season) and beat the Green Bay Packers (who blew them out in week two), people took notice.

In the last week in a half, however, a shift has occurred.

Once, the Giants were everyone's underdogs. Now with New England not playing their best football, the Giants have become the stylish pick.

Unfortunately that could be bad news for Giants fans.

Rather than remain focused, the Giants are beginning to chirp and talk about how great they are.

Perhaps New York has begun to read some of the positive press they rightly earned over the last few weeks. Sports Illustrated columnist, the knowledgeable writer Paul "Dr. Z" Zimmerman has even picked New York to win. 

While Zimmerman's prediction might be music to Big Blue's posse, this truly could be the Giants undoing. 

Even Plaxico Burress has gleefully predicted a 23-17 victory over New England. It's nice that Burress has gained so much confidence in himself and his team, but he needs to be careful.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are focused and are saying the right things, like a true veteran club. They know how good the Giants are (at least they are saying so); they played them and almost lost.

New England is being wise by saying the right things and not giving the Giants any more motivation.

True, New England is not playing their best coming into the big game. But with a two week layoff, and a chance to make some adjustments, Bill Belichick seemingly has his team in a good state of mind.

The Giants, to me, seem a bit too boastful and unfocused. Like the Packers, who complained about New York's dirty play, the Giants have started to do the same with the Pats.

Osi Umenyiora's complaints about Matt Light's dirty tactics are ridiculous—true or not. 

The Patriots are a dirty team at times, but I would suggest whatever aggression Umenyiora has toward Light, and the rest of his teammates, ought to be used during the game—not in television interviews.

I'm picking the Patriots to win, not necessarily because they have better talent, which they do, overall, but because I'm more impressed with their mindset. 

New England, 30-17.