Those who read my last article might have noticed there was some truth in my questioning of the hype behind Gabriel Gonzaga, who was defeated by Fabricio Wedum for the second time.
Confirmation of my analysis encouraged me to weigh in on the fight everyone's talking about—Brock Lesnar versus Frank Mir.
And once again, I find myself going against the majority of predictions out there.
This fight is a particularly difficult one to predict. You have Lesnar, highly skilled wrestler, making his UFC debut against Frank Mir, a highly skilled Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner. Lesnar has already reached star status within the organization. He goes into his first fight a favorite, but will he live up to the hype?
I may live to regret this comment on February 2, but I do not believe Brock Lesnar will live up to the hype—yet. I think it was a mistake to throw him to the wolves this quick in his UFC career.
Mir is also a problem for Lesnar stylistically. Lesnar might choose to utilize his predictably unstoppable take downs against Mir, but he will simply be playing right into Mir's hands. This is where Mir stands his greatest chance at an upset. And should Lesnar be instructed to keep the fight standing, I question whether his rather brief MMA training will result in a Lesnar capable of victory on his feet.
There's more to the story that is worth mentioning as well. Brock Lesnar could fall victim to the all too common 'Octagon Jitters' so many fighters experience in their UFC debut. And frankly, against someone as dangerous as Mir, this could prove fatal.
Look at how many Pride fighters have struggled with the transition into the octagon.
It's a real problem for a lot of fighters. A huge adrenaline surge causes an inexperienced fighter to become fatigued earlier in the fight.
Not only that, but Lesnar has never seen serious competition anywhere near the level of Frank Mir. His one MMA fight against—Min Soo Kim—was the kind of fight that the UFC should have thrown at Lesnar till he builds some confidence within his new trade.
Min Soo Kim was pretty much a shoe-in for Lesnar, and as a result, it makes predicting the Frank Mir fight that much more difficult.
Also, Frank Mir is no stranger to larger opponents. Some of us remember the horrifying video of Mir breaking Tim Sylvia's arm in the first round of UFC 48—and Tim is 6'8" and 265 lbs.
There is also the issue of pressure. Brock Lesnar carries a great deal of weight on his mammoth shoulders going into this fight. He has virtually zero experience, yet everyone and their dog has huge expectations for him. He has a tremendous amount to prove in this fight, and that could play a huge factor in determining the outcome.
Frank Mir has nothing to prove. The expectation is that he will lose. But Mir is no joke, and not to be underestimated.
My guess is Mir will go into the ring a lot calmer than Lesnar, and that can only work to his advantage. It is well known that it is a mistake to fight with emotion, as anxiety and nerves will rapidly wear you down.
All that being said, my guess is Lesnar has been heavily instructed in submission defense. If this is the case, I expect him to attempt to ground-and-pound Mir—possibly defeating him, but more likely dragging out a decision win based on aggressiveness and take-down points.
Lesnar might just prove too powerful for Mir to submit. Mir could find himself becoming increasingly discouraged and possibly intimidated by the sheer power of Lesnar. Overwhelmed, he could lose heart and simply lay on his back, trying to survive Lesnar's assault.
However, my prediction is Frank Mir via submission in the second round. Brock Lesnar will be a force to be reckoned with down the road, but I believe he's in over his head with Mir this early in his MMA career. Unless pile-drivers are a legal move in the UFC, in which case I might be forced to change my prediction.
I make predictions among friends on every UFC, and I have yet to find myself flip-flop on a prediction as much as I have over this fight. I am stoked to see this fight and believe it will do a lot for the UFC. I look forward to your comments and predictions. Let's hope it's a good one.
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8 months ago
Same prediction I made in my article.
Well written, I really enjoyed it! I think Brock will be a dominating force in the UFC and will hold the title someday....but like you said he is being thrown straight into the dog pound. IF the best Mir shows up, Lesnar will be outclassed. We've seen Mir be sloppy in the past however and pay for it. If either of them don't take this fight seriously, they will pay.
from 8 months ago
Thanks man. Can't get a photo into this article for the life of me. Found the Lesnar photo, then I crop it but there's no option to move forward or insert it. All I can do is crop it. Any idea what I'm doing wrong?
I agree with your comments. Mir has been sketchy in the past. But I think he'll take it serious. Who wouldn't train hard when you're fighting a guy that size. Lesnar alone is motivation enought to train hard.
I also agree that in a year or so, Lesnar could be in a position to dominate his division.
8 months ago
hmm for me when I press crop image it automatically goes into the article and then I click on it and movie it wherever I want. Not sure what you may be doing wrong.
Yeah, I heard on sherdog radio that he is in phenomenal shape. If he loses it would probably be the end of his UFC career as he has had continuous poor performances
8 months ago
Lesnar is going to squash everyone in UFC
MARK MY WORDS!!!!
8 months ago
Brock's Hot~~~Just Hot!!!! He's got big calzones 4 even gettin in the UFC!!!! Can't wait to see the fight & whatever happens it'll be worth it!!! Just wish I could be there!!!! Suchabrat~~~
8 months ago
Good report but I'm sick and tired of people saying all Pride fighters have struggled in the transition to ufc and fighting in the cage. AS I don't think anderson silva and rampage jackson have struggled do you?
from 8 months ago
No I don't think Rampage or Silva struggled, while others did. Can you tell me Cro-Cop was ready? Shogun? I don't think so. But they'll get motivated and we'll see the real Cro-Cop and Shogun soon enough.
8 months ago
the fact is that silva and jackson are the only 2 big name fighters that have had sucess in the ufc. Many other pride fighters have tryed and failed. Jitters? No i dont think so. It's the change in rules that make the transition hard. Your straegy changes. So im not saying i disagree with you entirely. Pride fighters are very good and some of the best in the world, but you have to agree when you look at the track record of them the're sucess in the ufc is not the best.
8 months ago
my prediction is Frank Mir via submission 1st round. As much as i would like to see lesnar win, i just dont think its going to happen. Mir is not goin to stand up with this guy, he's going to want to get taken down (and just hope that he isn't put through the canvess on the takedown), and then from there he will submit brock.
I wish brocks first fight would have went longer so i would have more to judge his skills on...
8 months ago
Its possible lesnars wrestling will see him through but i doubt it. If he has the fraction of the training that he apears to have against the experienced guys like Mir then i dont think he can do it. His hope is to use muscle and i dont believe it will be enough.
His only chance is an overweight, under trained Mir . . . . that is however a possibility.
Andy
from 8 months ago
hey u dont know what u are talking about. Broke is a ncaa champ and will not only out muscle everyone in the ufc but will be able to stike with the best given time and engry. He has wroked hiss ass of to win this fight and comeing from his # 1 fan i will tell you You are wrong.
Josh conner moses lake W.A
8 months ago
There're theories that Pride fighters were also not tested well for performance enhancing drugs but now in the UFC have to be off the juice.
from 8 months ago
The same would apply to Lesnar.
8 months ago
I believe that Lesnar is still not ready to be facing an opponent such as Mir, bur however anyone that can make a guy tapout due to rain of punches is no joke...I also have to throw this fight two ways cause one side you have years of experiance vs the other side which is 290 pounds of shear power...one look at Lesnar and its enough to make even Mir scared....This will be a good fight, cannot wait...
8 months ago
Dana White loves the UFC. I belive that he brought Brock Lesnar into the organization just to lose in the first round. Dana is trying to bring credibility to his sport. I believe he is tired of hearing about guys like Mayweather, Cintron, Angle and Lesnar talk about how they could be the champ in MMA. I believe he picked the biggest guy to make an example of. Brock goes into this fight and loses in the first round. He'll eventually return to wrestling in a year or two.
I like Brock, I like the UFC but Dana does what's best for his organization. Brock is an ego maniac and he seems to stubborn to see what he is being set up for.
8 months ago
Brock Lesnar is a great fighter he kicked the hell out of mir and it woun't be long before he is MMA champion
8 months ago
Brock Lesnar didn't lose the first round did he made Mir submit like a puff
8 months ago
Learn to write you dumbasses. The fight has not even happened yet and your talking like it's over.
8 months ago
to me i think it will be a quick fight but i could be wrong being a lesnar fan seing how he wrecks his appoinets i think he'll do the same in ufc hes a amazing fighter and who ever wants to say hes gonna suck bc his in wring experiance was fake u should be slaped bc if any of us came and took motnths and months of training we could be in ufc
8 months ago
yeh after months and months of training most of us could make it into mma promotions. The problem here is that lesnar's "months and months" of training will go up against Mir's years and years of training.
I truly hope lesnar wins but something tells me he is goin to get submitted i the first round.
8 months ago
Great job with the prediction. Do you think the Lesnar will stick with the sport and ultimately be a dominant MMA fighter?
8 months ago
As predicted, Mir made short work of Lesnar. Welcome to the world of Jiu Jitsu Brock. Props to Mir to be able to keep his composure during the Lesnar assault. Lesnar will be a bad ass opponent down the road, but you can't replace years of hard core training in a few months, no matter who you are.
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