UFC 81 Prediction: Brock Lesnar's UFC Debut

Those who read my last article might have noticed there was some truth in my questioning of the hype behind Gabriel Gonzaga, who was defeated by Fabricio Wedum for the second time.

Confirmation of my analysis encouraged me to weigh in on the fight everyone's talking about—Brock Lesnar versus Frank Mir.

And once again, I find myself going against the majority of predictions out there.

This fight is a particularly difficult one to predict. You have Lesnar, highly skilled wrestler, making his UFC debut against Frank Mir, a highly skilled Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner. Lesnar has already reached star status within the organization. He goes into his first fight a favorite, but will he live up to the hype?

I may live to regret this comment on February 2, but I do not believe Brock Lesnar will live up to the hype—yet. I think it was a mistake to throw him to the wolves this quick in his UFC career.

Mir is also a problem for Lesnar stylistically. Lesnar might choose to utilize his predictably unstoppable take downs against Mir, but he will simply be playing right into Mir's hands. This is where Mir stands his greatest chance at an upset. And should Lesnar be instructed to keep the fight standing, I question whether his rather brief MMA training will result in a Lesnar capable of victory on his feet.

There's more to the story that is worth mentioning as well. Brock Lesnar could fall victim to the all too common 'Octagon Jitters' so many fighters experience in their UFC debut. And frankly, against someone as dangerous as Mir, this could prove fatal.

Look at how many Pride fighters have struggled with the transition into the octagon.

It's a real problem for a lot of fighters. A huge adrenaline surge causes an inexperienced fighter to become fatigued earlier in the fight.

Not only that, but Lesnar has never seen serious competition anywhere near the level of Frank Mir. His one MMA fight against—Min Soo Kim—was the kind of fight that the UFC should have thrown at Lesnar till he builds some confidence within his new trade.

Min Soo Kim was pretty much a shoe-in for Lesnar, and as a result, it makes predicting the Frank Mir fight that much more difficult. 

Also, Frank Mir is no stranger to larger opponents. Some of us remember the horrifying video of Mir breaking Tim Sylvia's arm in the first round of UFC 48—and Tim is 6'8" and 265 lbs.

There is also the issue of pressure. Brock Lesnar carries a great deal of weight on his mammoth shoulders going into this fight. He has virtually zero experience, yet everyone and their dog has huge expectations for him. He has a tremendous amount to prove in this fight, and that could play a huge factor in determining the outcome.

Frank Mir has nothing to prove. The expectation is that he will lose. But Mir is no joke, and not to be underestimated.

My guess is Mir will go into the ring a lot calmer than Lesnar, and that can only work to his advantage. It is well known that it is a mistake to fight with emotion, as anxiety and nerves will rapidly wear you down.

All that being said, my guess is Lesnar has been heavily instructed in submission defense. If this is the case, I expect him to attempt to ground-and-pound Mir—possibly defeating him, but more likely dragging out a decision win based on aggressiveness and take-down points.

Lesnar might just prove too powerful for Mir to submit. Mir could find himself becoming increasingly discouraged and possibly intimidated by the sheer power of Lesnar. Overwhelmed, he could lose heart and simply lay on his back, trying to survive Lesnar's assault.

However, my prediction is Frank Mir via submission in the second round. Brock Lesnar will be a force to be reckoned with down the road, but I believe he's in over his head with Mir this early in his MMA career. Unless pile-drivers are a legal move in the UFC, in which case I might be forced to change my prediction.

I make predictions among friends on every UFC, and I have yet to find myself flip-flop on a prediction as much as I have over this fight. I am stoked to see this fight and believe it will do a lot for the UFC. I look forward to your comments and predictions. Let's hope it's a good one.