Strikeforce Fedor vs. Henderson: Bleacher Report MMA Staff Predictions

John HeinisJul 28, 2011

On Saturday, July 30, fans finally get a chance to see a super fight that many thought had no real feasibility at this point.

Reigning Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Dan Henderson will take on Fedor Emelianenko in the evening's main event.

Will this be a career renaissance for Emelianenko, or will it solidify that it is finally time for "The Last Emperor" to hang it up after a decade of dominance?

Also on the card, Paul Daley takes on Tyron Woodley, in a fight that will likely determine who competes for the vacant Strikeforce welterweight title before the end of the year.

Scott Smith and Tarec Saffeidine will also be battling it out at 170 pounds on the card, while Tim Kennedy meets Robbie Lawler in a middleweight affair.

Finally, in a rarely seen women's bout, Marloes Coenen will square off against Miesha Tate as she defends her Strikeforce welterweight women's title.

Predicting on this card will be Dana Becker (11 for 18), Jordy McElroy (7 for 13), Dale De Souza (7 for 13), Dwight Wakabayashi (0 for 0) and me, John Heinis, (11 for 18).

Take a look inside to here what we had to say.

Scott Smith vs. Tarec Saffiedine

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John Heinis: Scott Smith and Robbie Lawler seem like a carbon copy of the same fighter to me. However, I think Smith is involved with a pretty even matchup on this card.

Neither Smith nor Tarec Saffiedine really piques my interest right now, although you have to love the fact that in 17 career wins, Smith has finished every single time.

However, Saffiedine is yet to bow out of a fight early, and since he is a jiu jitsu guy, I think he can get this fight to the ground and at least eke out a decision.

Smith is one of those finished or be finished kind of guys, only one of his fights (a loss) has went the distance, and I just think he has nothing left at this point so he ends up tapping.

Saffiedine via submission (rear naked choke)

Dana Becker: The difference in this fight could come down to which Scott Smith shows up.

Smith, who has plenty of experience fighting in big-time bouts with high-caliber opponents, needs a win in a bad way after dropping consecutive fights to Paul Daley and Cung Le.

Smith (17-8) has plenty of knockout-potential, as evident by his 14 career KO triumphs, including impressive come-from-behind wins over Le, Benji Radach and Pete Sell.

Tarec Saffiedine (10-3) is a dangerous fighter on the ground, earning five submission victories. He is coming off a decision loss to Tyron Woodley his last time out. He was recently called up from the Challengers series, so this will be his first opportunity to shine in front of a large crowd.

For Smith, this is a do-or-die situation, as he is the heavy favorite and needs to make a statement to showcase to the rest of the MMA world that he still has something left in the tank.

Smith via first-round KO

Dwight Wakabayashi: The often used statement “don’t blink” applies to this fight as Scott Smith will look to come out and KO Tarec Saffiedine quickly while Saffiedine will look for this to go the the ground for a quick submission.

This one may be a classic battle of striker vs. grappler but I believe Saffiedine also has the skills to stand and bang with Smith if he wants to.

It is a risky game plan because I don’t think Smith can handle Tarec on the ground, so Saffiedine may want to play the odds and take it down right away.

I don’t see Smith stopping all his takedown attempts.

Saffiedine via second-round submission

Jordy McElroy: Lately, Scott Smith has made the highlight reels for all the wrong reasons. After getting caught with a spinning back kick in his June 2010 loss to Cung Le, Smith dined on white canvas in his December 2010 knockout loss to Paul Daley.

It was like the gravity in the cage was turned up just for Smith as Daley’s hook sent him hurtling face first to the canvas. Can Smith rebound against Belgian Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu artist Tarec Saffiedine?

With Smith’s knockout power, anything is possible, but Saffiedine represents the mold of fighter that has given "Hands of Steel" problems throughout his entire career. Saffiedine is a solid striker that sets up his offense with precision and angles.

Instead of using head movement and feints, Smith generally trudges forward and engages in wild exchanges.

There is always a chance that Saffiedine gets caught up in the moment and obliges Smith’s overaggressive style, but the Team Quest student will remain patient and pick up a second-round TKO.

Saffiedine via second-round TKO

Dale De Souza: I find this one very interesting in that the more prominent name (Smith) is actually coming in at a bit of a disadvantage to the fresher name (Saffiedine).

How goes that?

Tarec "The Sponge" Saffiedine has a legitimate takedown offense, although he's still young in the sport and has not proven to be an elitist in that realm, but at the end of the day, Saffiedine's only real edge is that he may be better off in getting the takedowns and submissions.

Scott "Artuto Gatti" Smith, better known in common circles as "Hands of Steel", is noted for being just that: the Arturo Gatti of MMA—the man can take a punch and give a punch without any bit of fear for getting knocked out.

An elitist in any field is what Smith is not either, but when it comes to fight time, the man can bring it after having it brought to him.

Saffiedine is getting his first big break on a major Strikeforce card, but unless he can get the durable Smith to the ground and keep him there, he's got a slim chance of victory on paper.

In the past, Smith has done a good job of two things: keeping his fights standing and not leaving his fights in the gritty mitts of the judges.

Against a notably subpar yet developing striking offense such as Saffiedine's, the same should be able to occur as Smith gets himself back on the winning track in his first fight back under the Zuffa banner.

Smith via first-round TKO or second-round KO

Paul Daley vs. Tyron Woodley

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John Heinis: This seems to quietly be a No. 1 contender fight for the Strikeforce welterweight title—even though the belt is currently vacant.

Tyron Woodley is an enormous betting favorite (-280 to +225), and there’s a reason for that: Paul Daley is abysmal against high level grapplers.

Nothing against Daley—I actually enjoy both his interviews and watching him fight—but he just doesn’t seem to know how to put his purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to use in the cage.

Meanwhile, Woodley is a former Division I wrestling All-American at the University of Missouri and has won five out of eight professional fights via submission.

Daley’s only hope is knocking Woodley out in the first 30 seconds, and I just don’t see that happening.

I think Woodley grinds out a decision here, and we can stop all the talk about Daley ever getting back in the UFC.

Woodley via unanimous decision

Dana Becker: With Nick Diaz vacating the Strikeforce welterweight championship for a shot at UFC champ Georges St. Pierre, this matchup could go a long way in determining who wears that strap next.

For Paul Daley, this is an opportunity to prove he is serious about becoming a major-market fighter after all the missed weigh-ins and other distractions he has caused upon himself.

Daley (27-10) is the owner of 20 career knockout victories and had won four straight fights before being stopped by Diaz earlier this year.

Tyron Woodley (8-0) is the kind of opponent that might cause Daley plenty of problems, as he is a former standout wrestler at the University of Missouri.

After being cut in the final stages of tryouts for The Ultimate Fighter, Woodley headed to Strikeforce, where he made quite the splash with three straight submission victories.

For Woodley to be successful against Daley, he must rely on his ground game and avoid taking any big-time blows from the Brit.

Woodley via second-round submission (rear naked choke)

Dwight Wakabayashi: I think this is a big step up in every way for Tyron Woodley, and in the end it may be too much for him.

Paul Daley is a more powerful and polished striker than Woodley has ever seen before and that, along with the glamour and glitz of the big show, will make him just a bit too jumpy in the cage.

While I have no doubt that Woodley would loosen up and settle down as the fight went on, I think Daley may get to him before that happens.

Daley via first-round KO

Jordy McElroy: Paul "Semtex" Daley will be looking to erase a tough TKO loss to Nick Diaz when he takes on rising welterweight contender Tyron Woodley.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to break this fight down. Daley could run his own nursery for the amount of fighters he’s put to sleep. His obvious strategy is to keep the fight standing and look for the knockout.

Woodley, a two-time NCAA Division I All-American wrestler at the University of Missouri, will try to use his striking to setup takedowns.

Even though his striking is steadily improving, Woodley has to avoid testing his standup against Daley, who is one of the most dangerous strikers in the entire division.

The sight of Scott Smith’s motionless body plastered on the canvas after eating a Daley hook should serve as a nice example for Woodley.

There will be a lot of pre-fight talk and most likely a commotion at the weigh-ins, but overall, this isn’t a great style matchup.

Daley will be frustrated as he is continuously taken down and forced to fight from his back. It won’t be an impressive victory by any means, but Woodley will take a notable name in the sport as he cruises to a unanimous decision.

Woodley via unanimous decision

Dale De Souza: Tyron Woodley is an undefeated wrestler, while Paul Daley is an explosive welterweight striker who had arguably the round of the year in his first-round defeat at the hands of UFC 137 headliner Nick Diaz.

The question isn't if this is a striker-vs.-wrestler affair, because Woodley has shown that he doesn't have too much fear of letting his hands go in the past, so it's not completely a wrestler facing a striker.

No, the question is Daley's takedown defense, because although Woodley's striking is decent enough to where Daley could have problems with it, Daley's takedown defense has looked horrendous against some elite wrestlers, elite ground specialists not named Diaz, and Josh Koscheck.

If Daley hasn't worked on keeping the fight standing, Woodley will use his tools to easily nab the biggest win of his career, but if Daley has worked on his takedown defense, then Woodley might have some problems come Saturday night.

Chances are that should Daley get taken down, he will likely tap out, as the majority of Woodley's wins are submissions, and anyone who knows Daley's career knows that "Semtex" has lost the majority of his fights by submission.

Daley will test T-Wood's chin, and he will probably wind up eking out a decision, but never question the left hand of the brash Team Rough House striker.

This is a tough fight to call, and it's one that I want to say will be a close unanimous decision, but somehow, this one could end in a finish, with Daley somehow scoring his much-needed rebound victory.

Daley via third-round KO

Robbie Lawler vs. Tim Kennedy

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John Heinis: “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler is capable of knocking anyone out, evidenced by his 15 KOs in 18 career victories, but it was exposed a long time ago that he can’t do anything else.

All right, that’s a little exaggerated; he did win a few scrambles with Ronaldo Souza and managed to get off his back a few times as well.

Still, for a guy who is supposed to an awesome wrestler, he has zero takedown defense against the cage and I seriously can’t remember the last time he shot a takedown of his own.

He is content to stand and trade with whoever he’s facing and just pray he lands a Hail Mary shot.

Unfortunately for Lawler, he can’t fight Melvin Manhoef every week, which is part of the reason I like Tim Kennedy here.

Kennedy’s never been finished, minus the always disappoint cut TKO stoppage in his first professional fight against Scott Smith all the way back in 2001.

More importantly, Kennedy is dangerous both on his feet and on the ground, with seven submissions and five KOs amidst 13 career victories.

Kennedy will get this one to the ground and submit Lawler without ever being in much real danger.

Kennedy via second-round submission (rear naked choke)

Dana Becker: Since a no-contest with Scott Smith in 2008, Robbie Lawler has alternated wins and losses in his last six fights, including a submission loss to Ronaldo Souza earlier this year in a fight for the Strikeforce middleweight title.

Lawler (18-7) is exciting to watch, but frustrating at the same time because he relies so much on his knockout ability, which has produced 15 of his career 18 wins.

Still, he enters this meeting with Tim Kennedy knowing that his takedown defense will be put into question again, as Kennedy is a man who likes to take you down and submit you.

Kennedy (13-3) rebounded from a loss to Souza last year with a convincing win over Melvin Manhoef. Seven of his career wins have come via submission, as the full-time United States Army soldier continues to balance a hectic career.

Much like the Daley-Woodley match up, this contest could either go the distance or see a quick ending. If Lawler can avoid being put on his back, I think one big shot from "The Ruthless One" could end the night of Kennedy.

Lawler via first-round KO

Dwight Wakabayashi: It is very hard to predict this fight in terms of where it will go, how it will end and who will come out on top, but one thing is for sure: It will be entertaining.

Tim Kennedy is on the verge of being a very big star in mixed martial arts and he is looking at Robbie Lawler as a stepping stone to get him there.

Lawler has fought all the "who’s who" in his weight class and you always know what he is going to give you when he comes to fight. Lawler will bang and entertain, but his game is still weak once the fight goes to the ground.

The question I have: Is Kennedy good enough to expose Lawler there and end this via submission, or will this one go to a decision?

Kennedy wins via unanimous decision

Jordy McElroy: Fresh off a third-round submission loss to Strikeforce middleweight champion Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, Robbie Lawler hopes to get back on the winning side of things when he meets U.S. Army Bronze Star medalist Tim Kennedy.

While Lawler boasts knockout power and great boxing skills, Kennedy will enter this bout as the more well-rounded fighter.

There is no doubt that Lawler is a solid veteran, but over the years, his style of fighting is becoming more and more predictable. He is purely a boxer posing as an MMA fighter.

His general understanding of grappling keeps him upright and out of danger for the most part against mediocre opposition, but his refusal to add to his offensive arsenal leaves him incredibly one-dimensional. Where are the kicks, knees and takedowns?

Kennedy is a decent boxer in his own right, and he has the chin to hang around in the pocket. If things get dicey on the feet, he also has the option of dragging the fight to the ground and riding out top position.

Unless he gets clipped with a Hail Mary, Kennedy should be able to outwork Lawler for a unanimous decision.

Kennedy via unanimous decision

Dale De Souza: Kennedy choked out Melvin Manhoef in Columbus, Ohio while Jacare Souza choked Robbie Lawler out at the first Strikeforce card of 2011.

Everyone and their moms are saying that there is no way this one ends without Lawler's right hook landing on Tim Kennedy's chin, but if you think Kennedy will knock Lawler out with zero difficulty, then you don't know Kennedy.

As far as endurance and cardiovascular systems go, how many middleweights besides Souza and Jason Miller can say they can go the distance with Kennedy?

None.

Yes, Lawler has the knockout power needed to put Kennedy to sleep, but Manhoef did too, and Kennedy submitted him after taking Manhoef's toughest shots.

How is Lawler going to feel when Kennedy survives his best shots and subject him to the same fate?

Kennedy via late first-round to early second-round arm triangle

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Marloes Coenen vs. Miesha Tate

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John Heinis: Be honest: How many of you actually know something about either fighter without looking at their Wikipedia pages?

In a fight that could go a long way in determining the future of women’s MMA, both these women are grappling specialists, so expect a lot of action on the ground here.

This will only be Marloes Coenen’s third fight at 135 after getting crushed by Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos in a middleweight title fight in January of last year.

In 19 wins, “Rumina” has submitted her opponent a ridiculous 14 times. As a matter of fact, Coenen has finished her adversary in 17 out of her 19 professional victories.

Miesha Tate is one of the best female wrestlers you’ll ever watch, evidenced by her “Takedown” nickname.

At just 24 years old, Tate definitely has the look of a future title holder, but I don’t think Saturday night will be her night just yet.

Tate will have Coenen on her heels at least once during the course of the fight, but Coenen’s world-class jiu jitsu will bail her out of trouble yet again.

Coenen via fourth-round submission (arm bar)

Dana Becker: This is a critical fight, not only for Marloes Coenen and Miesha Tate, but for all of women's MMA, as they get the chance to shine in front of a large crowd and with several millions watching on television.

Coenen (19-4) won the welterweight title with a submission victory over Sarah Kaufman in 2010 and defended the title with another submission win against Liz Carmouche, who was a replacement for Tate after Tate withdrew due to injury.

Now, Tate (11-2) gets her chance to try and figure out the Dutch submission expert.

Tate hasn't lost since falling to Kaufman in 2009 by unanimous decision, claiming five straight fights, including a pair of victories during a one-night, four-person tournament that elevated her into title-consideration.

Both of these fighters like to work the submission game, so expect several takedown attempts that lead to interesting positions on the mat. But, don't be totally surprised if these two decide to showcase some fireworks of their own to enlighten the crowd.

Tate via third-round TKO

Dwight Wakabayashi: This fight will be interesting to watch for a number of reasons. First and foremost I want to see how these two fighters handle the pressure and spotlight that this title fight brings.

Both Marloes Coenen and especially Miesha Tate know that the top brass will be watching in this one and I predict that both fighters will be a little tentative.

Dutch fighter Coenen has the belt and the power advantage while Tate has a lot of hype and athleticism on her side.

Both of these fighters like to be aggressive but I see Coenen being too much for Tate in power and strength and I see her winning a decision.

Coenen wins via unanimous decision

Jordy McElroy: After picking up major victories over Sarah Kaufman and Liz Carmouche, Strikeforce women’s welterweight champion Marloes Coenen’s second title defense comes against FILA Grappling No-Gi Silver medalist Miesha "Takedown" Tate.

Tate’s entire style is written in her name. She is an excellent grappler with shutdown top control. Her submission defense is really going to be tested against the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu-savvy Coenen, who has earned 14 career submission victories.

On paper, this bout is split down the middle. Tate should be able to consistently secure takedowns, but can her submission defense hold up for five rounds?

Even when she’s down multiple rounds, Coenen is always in a fight. She has a champion’s bravado, and she always finds a way to win.

Still, it’s going to be hard to muster up any kind of late fight heroics against a grappler of Tate’s caliber. Look for Tate to eat some hard punches on the feet every now and then, but her ability to secure takedowns and maintain top position will earn her the Strikeforce world title.

Tate via unanimous decision

Dale De Souza: I could fantasize about Miesha Tate all day, and I could comment on how much Marloes Coenen looks so much like a beautiful, younger Sarah Jessica Parker if she were Dutch and had the heart to choke me out.

Seriously, I don't hide my fantasies, people. Just ask those that follow me on Twitter.

Instead, I will put my school-boy fantasies aside and mention that the Queen Bee of Team Alpha Male has some sick wrestling and has what it takes to keep "Rumina" grounded for a good portion of this bout.

There's also the question of the striking of the champion, but for every edge that the visually vivacious challenger has, the champion has her own strengths on the feet and the ground, especially if we're yammering about submissions.

That's the big X-factor here, because Tate has sick wrestling and can lay in her ground and pound into some of the toughest females in the sport, but Coenen is arguably the most well-rounded submission specialist in the Strikeforce women's welterweight division.

I like Tate as much as the next guy, and I do have a crush on her. Yet against Coenen, Tate's wrestling against Coenen's jiu jitsu and ground mastery in general is like shooting a flamethrower into a lake.

Unless the fight stays standing, this battle of the badass babes is not going to result in a new Strikeforce women's welterweight champion, but even then, it won't be easy to get a clean submission on Tate.

Coenen via late fifth-round Achilles' hold

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Dan Henderson

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John Heinis: The two former Pride stars square off in this card’s main event. This will be the first time Dn Henderson has competed at heavyweight in nearly nine years, and the first time in more than four years Fedor Emelianenko has had a significant weight advantage.

Hendo has won five of his past six, while Emelianenko is of course on a once-thought-to-be-impossible two-fight losing streak.

Emelianenko honestly didn’t look terrible against Fabricio Werdum—he knocked him down with a punch prior to getting caught in the now infamous triangle choke.

The one thing I got out of those two fights is that Emelianenko has zero jiu jitsu defense, and luckily for him, Henderson is definitely not a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu guy.

However, Dangerous Dan has looked as good as he ever has in the cage, with his past three wins coming by way of knockout.

Henderson has a clear cut advantage in the wrestling department, and he has the submission defense to thwart off what Fedor has to offer from his guard.

If Bigfoot couldn’t ground and pound Fedor into a ref stoppage, I don’t think Henderson will either.

I still see Hendo grinding out the decision though, and solidifying himself as one of the greatest of all time.

Henderson via unanimous decision

Dana Becker: While many may say this fight is happening to late in the careers of both men, I for one couldn't care less.

Fedor Emelianenko and Dan Henderson have been two of the biggest names in the sport of MMA for the better part of the last 10 years. Now, despite one coming off a pair of losses, and the other getting up there in age, the two will meet inside the cage.

For Emeliankeno (31-3), this fight will most likely determine his future, as the once unstoppable force was halted by a submission loss to Fabricio Werdum and a TKO defeat at the hands of Antonio Silva.

Still, reports have been positive from his camp, as "The Last Emperor" prepares to repair his shattered image.

Henderson (27-8) is the current light heavyweight champion for Strikeforce, but this fight will be contested at heavyweight. Also, this is the last bout on his current contract, so there is plenty for him to claim with a win.

The knockout potential that Henderson possesses in his hands makes him a tough challenge for Fedor, who was punished by the brute strength of Silva.

I also feel like Henderson's wrestling ability will be enough of a problem for Fedor that the Russian will be unable to work his submission game on Hendo to secure a victory.

Henderson via second-round TKO

Dwight Wakabayashi: Talk about two legends of the sport colliding, and this is one of those fights that only comes around once in a while.

Many people are looking at the size difference as a factor and many are talking about the dual right-hand bombs, but in my opinion it will come down to pure will when the bell rings on these two warriors.

Henderson will summon that emotion needed to dig deep for that extra takedown or two, and that will be his only chance against a bigger, more powerful Fedor.

Henderson via split decision

Jordy McElroy: This legendary scuffle has major fight of the year potential. Stylistically, Fedor Emelianenko and Dan Henderson are similar in a lot of ways. Both are incredibly scrappy in every area of a fight.

Along with jarring knockout power, they are both equipped with ironclad chins that can absorb a tremendous amount of punishment.

The few subtle differences predominantly come down to Henderson’s wrestling edge and Emelianenko’s submissions.

While Henderson enters this bout fresh off a brutal knockout win over Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante, Emelianenko’s Zeus-like aura has cracked after back to back losses to Fabricio Werdum and Antonio Silva.

People are beginning to write the former Pride heavyweight champion off, but it should be intriguing to see how he fares against opposition of similar size.

Emelianenko isn’t the washed-up heavyweight that some believe, and he should prove it against Henderson, who also seems to have lost a step in the past couple of years.

Fans can expect a scrappy back-and-forth fight reminiscent of Henderson versus Quinton "Rampage" Jackson in September 2007. In the end, "The Last Emperor" will do enough to earn the nods of all three judges and avoid a third straight loss.

Emelianenko via close unanimous decision

Dale De Souza: I wish I could call a split draw here, but for once, I will be realistic.

We know that there will be no front kicks to the face or spinning backfists in this bout, nor will my dream of a Vaporizer or a Gogoplata come true here.

No, we are going to see something for the highlight reel on the traditional edge in this one.

I don't think that I have to state much about Dan Henderson's Olympic-level wrestling or his legendary right hand, which has made glassy chins out of some of the hardest chins in the sport.

However, there's one thing that might just have the energy to turn Hendo's legendary iron jaw into a glassy one, and that is the equally explosive right hand of the man who will face Henderson this Saturday, the man, myth and MMA immortal known as "The Last Emperor."

The great Fedor Emelianenko.

You would think that Fedor would be looking the same as he's looked in past fights and simply maintaining his figure for the fight with Henderson, but being on the first real two-fight skid of his career has helped reinvent Emelianenko.

Emelianenko has looked better than he ever did in Pride, and the belief is that with the new, slimmer Emelianenko will come a phoenix—a Fedor with a fire lit up from underneath him, who will need to knock the Strikeforce light heavyweight champion out in order to salvage his legacy.

It's well noted that if the fight goes to the ground, Henderson can bring all the Olympic-level groundwork he wants, but he's not leaving the ground without tapping out.

As for Fedor's KO power, well, let's put it this way: UFC president Dana White is a notable critic of Emelianenko, and even he admits that Fedor has the power to lay someone out with one punch.

Will it happen against the most diamond standard or iron jaws and arguably one of the greatest fighters of all time?

It takes a great to defeat a great, and Henderson is great.

Problem is, come Saturday, Fedor may once again be greater—and it will come the way some of us least expect it.

Emelianenko via late second-round KO by overhand right