Fantasy Baseball: Regrets About Trading for Jair Jurrjens
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I got a two-position player who gets dingers and OBP, plus a player who is 12-3 and has a 1.87 ERA. Why am I complaining?
Because I don't think Jurrjens is for real...I'm now thinking that Jurrjens may be due for a late season collapse.
I don't need some new-fangled sabermetric to prove it: just K/9. At 5.3, this leaves something to be desired. In seven of his last 10 starts, Jurrjens had five strikeouts or fewer.
In my opinion, strikeouts are often a good way to prove other statistics, if for no other reason than more strikeouts mean fewer balls in play. Since Jurrjens isn't getting strikeouts, I predict that those live balls will turn into more runs for Jurrjens' opponents before the season is over.
But if it hasn't caught up to him yet, why not? Luck, perhaps (an Alexi Ogando situation on a slightly grander scale)? Or perhaps because the Braves have put out more players than any other team in in the National League, and they catch at least ten of his fly balls each start?
And if his success is due to good fielding, it's not really of his own doing—adjust your Cy Young ballots accordingly (although I will admit that there is some art to getting players to fly out 45 percent of the time, as Jurrjens seems to be doing).
So, if you're looking to make a big move before the deadline, don't count on making a run with Jurrjens as your lynchpin. Build it around a strikeout machine like Jared Weaver. Especially if you're in a small league, a no-WHIP league, or a points-based league (did I mention that Weaver is also on my team? And Clayton Kershaw as well? And that I'm leading my league?).
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