NBA Roundtable: 2008-09 Season Forecast

The wait is over.

After what seemed like the longest offseason ever, the NBA season will finally kick off tonight. Guys like Ron Artest, Elton Brand, Mo Williams, Marcus Camby, and Jermaine O'Neal will be sporting new unis this season. And if this year's expectations are met, this season could put last season to shame.

A lot of things happened this past offseason. From the NBA Draft, to the blockbuster deals, to Shaquille O'Neal letting the world know when he will retire. With so much to talk about, a roundtable is the perfect thing to have before tonight's tip-off.

My two favorite writers—Erick Blasco and Andrew Ungvari—joined me for the roundtable. But this time around, we have a new face in the crowd: Dustin Chapman.

So, let's get it started:

1. Which team will benefit the most from their offseason acquisition(s)?

Michael Whittenberg:

We all know that the Ron Artest trade to Houston was by far the best acquisition during the offseason. But nothing is guaranteed for the Rockets if Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, who suffer some type of injury every year, don't stay healthy.

I like Cleveland's acquisition of Mo Williams. Larry Hughes didn't work out for Cleveland, but Williams looks like a much better fit. Though the Cavs will still be missing a dominant force in the middle, Williams is probably the only player on the roster aside from LeBron James who can create.

Cleveland are contenders every year with LeBron, but the Williams deal was something that needed to be done now that the Eastern Conference is a bit stronger this year.

Also, Philadelphia will benefit now that Elton Brand will be around to help Samuel Dalembert in the middle.

Erick Blasco:

The Sixers. With Elton Brand drawing double teams in the low post, Andre Iguodala no longer has to be the team’s main scoring option, and Andre Miller doesn’t have to pull rabbits out of his hat to get the Sixers to score in the halfcourt. Brand will allow Reggie Evans to be a hustling backup, and his presence will allow Samuel Dalembert to be the weak-side shot blocker he operates so well as.

Ron Artest may lift the Rockets to a championship with the right breaks, but he won’t magically cure Yao Ming’s and Tracy McGrady’s injuries, he may implode the locker room, and he still may not make a difference in the ultra-stacked West. However, the Sixers are primed to win a playoff series, and possibly two, simply because of Brand’s presence.

Andrew Ungvari:

As far as the upcoming season is concerned, I’m going to have to say that the Rockets' acquisition of Ron Artest was by far the summer’s best move. For a team that seems to be dealing with at least one devastating injury every year, Artest gives them the depth to be better equipped to deal with another injury without costing them anything of substance.

I love the Hornets' signing of James Posey, because it gives them a guy with two rings who will have the undivided attention of his teammates when he speaks. He adds age and experience to a very young team—another great move by Jeff Bower, the NBA’s best unknown GM.

As for the future, I think the Clippers and Pacers did a great job. The Clippers have positioned themselves to have a boatload of cap space in 2010 to add a star player to a team that has Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, Eric Gordon, and Al Thornton locked up for years.

The Pacers unloaded the remaining two years and $45million of Jermaine O’Neal’s contract to the Raptors for T.J. Ford and the expiring contract of Rasho Nesterovic—speeding up their rebuilding plan by a year, and giving them a franchise point guard and cap space.

Dustin Chapman:

If healthy, you’ve got to go with the Houston Rockets. Adding Ron Artest to the squad gives this team much-needed toughness, tenacity, and extra versatility. In addition to that, it greatly improves an already-excellent defensive squad, and finally gives the Rockets a formidable third scoring option that can create his own offense when Tracy McGrady and/or Yao Ming are resting on the sidelines.

Brent Barry is another key acquisition that will bring a consistent veteran off the bench. Perhaps Houston ’s biggest postseason issue since 2005 has been the unreliability of the team’s role players. At the end of games, in particular, all but a select few have noticeably choked. Barry is a proven vet that Rick Adelman can count on to handle the ball and knock down crucial shots, and he’s already been a part of winning teams to boot.

Health is the obvious key component to Houston’s success, but as long as they can steer clear of the injury bug around playoff time, there is no reason for this team not to establish themselves as a legitimate championship contender.

2. Which team will suffer the most from an offseason loss?

Whittenberg:

The Clippers losing Elton Brand and Corey Maggette were big, but at least they are trying to fill the holes with the additions of Baron Davis, Marcus Camby and even rookie Eric Gordon. Golden State losing Davis to free agency and Monta Ellis to injury and suspension is also a big deal.

But I have to go with the Denver Nuggets on this one. They traded their only defensive presence in Camby to the Clippers, and they also lost Eduardo Najera. And with Allen Iverson possibly on the trading block, Denver will be lucky to reach the postseason in the loaded Western Conference.

Their team defense was horrific with Camby last season, and this season will more than likely be even worse without him.

Blasco:

Denver is ready to drop off the map. Without Marcus Camby and Eduardo Najera, the Nuggets lost the only two players on their roster who played any pretense of defense. Without their energy, rebounds, and blocked shots, Denver’s running game will no doubt suffer.

Sure, the Nuggets will still score—but without their potent running game in full gear, they’ll have trouble keeping up with any opposing team that can score points while playing transition defense. With Dallas and Phoenix more balanced and more talented, Denver will be the odd man out looking up at Portland’s ascent up the standings.

Ungvari:

I think the Celtics' loss of James Posey might turn out to be devastating considering how many intangibles he brought to them. His absence won’t go unnoticed. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce will both have a greater load to carry on the defensive end without him. The extent of how badly he’ll be missed will be determined by how Tony Allen does in his place.

Chapman:

Golden State obviously has additional key anecdotes that are expected to hold them back in 2009, such as Monta Ellis’ ankle injury and suspension, but the loss of Baron Davis may have taken the Warriors right out of the playoff picture by its lonesome. Sans Davis, this team is now lacking leadership, is without a star to rely on to carry the team in crucial moments (see: first round of 2007 playoffs where Davis shined and Ellis stunk up the joint), and is set to rely on a scoring guard to run the offense.

Granted, Davis is a score-first guard in his own right, but he also knows how to set his teammates up, and holds a career assist average of 7.2 per game.

The difference is this—Monta Ellis is used to being the recipient of passes as opposed to the deliverer, and being asked to be an explosive scorer rather than a creator for others. Ellis may very well take on his new role in stride and further develop his game, but it’s not going to happen overnight. The loss of Davis takes the Warriors out of the hunt for a low playoff seed, whether Ellis tears a deltoid ligament in his left ankle or not.

3. Since we now know when Shaquille O'Neal is retiring, where does he rank among the league's all-time greatest centers?

Whittenberg:

Gotta put the Diesel in my top five. Shaq is most definitely the most dominant center to play the game, but I rank him fifth all-time under Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell and Hakeem Olajuwon.  It's as simple as that, folks.

Blasco:

I have Shaq ninth all-time, and sixth among classic big men behind Bill Russell, George Mikan, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Tim Duncan. It’s hard to compare players like Shaq to players like Mikan and Russell, because it’s difficult to project players across different time periods. Comparing them throughout their own time periods, Shaq was probably the worst defender of the sextet, except for maybe Chamberlain, and like Chamberlain, could have had so much more success if he managed the nuances of the game better—like getting in shape.

Either way, Shaq was a true superstar in his prime, who simply dominated teams with his sheer mass and remarkable quickness for a man his size. He made his teammates better, passed well, and was big in pressure moments. He’ll be celebrated as one of the all-time greats, and deservedly so.

Ungvari:

Shaq will be remembered as both one of the NBA’s best and one of it’s most under-achieving players. He had the physical gifts to be the greatest of all time, but his lack of commitment to conditioning and his tendency to coast through the first half of the season make it impossible for me to put him ahead of Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, or Hakeem Olajuwon.

Shaq will finish his career with only one regular-season MVP award. By comparison, Kareem had six, Russell had five, Chamberlain had four and Olajuwon had two (if you include the one that David Robinson stole from him in 1995).

Shaq did have three playoff-MVP awards, but that just proves my point about his coasting through the regular season.  On the bright side, Shaq will be remembered as a better player than Robinson, Moses Malone, Patrick Ewing, or Bill Walton.

Chapman:

Shaq Daddy may be the most physically dominant center of them all, but it’s difficult for me to rank him above the likes of Bill Russell (11 rings speak for themselves), Wilt Chamberlain (arguably the best player of all-time), and Hakeem Olajuwon (far superior defensively and possessed a wider post arsenal than O’Neal).

With those sentiments in mind, I think it’s reasonably fair to place “The Big Aristotle” fourth on the list of all-time great centers.

4. This year's rookie class looks pretty good.  So who will win Rookie of the Year honors this season?

Whittenberg:

O.J. Mayo, Eric Gordon, Michael Beasley, Greg Oden and Derrick Rose looked good in the preseason. But I'm going with Beasley to take home ROY honors. Beasley has the potential to become a raw scorer in this league, and playing alongside Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion will be good for him.

The rookie race will be close this season, and if you asked me who the race would come down to, I would have to go with Mayo, Gordon and Beasley as the three finalists.

Blasco:

Greg Oden has the advantage of having a superior body to any other rookie, as well as the luxury of spending a year learning the preparatory work that goes into being an exceptional NBA player. Plus, he should have a key role on a very formidable team. Unless Michael Beasley and O.J. Mayo put up stupendous numbers, the award is Oden’s to lose.

Ungvari:

Barring injury or the distraction of an NCAA investigation, O.J. Mayo is a lock for the ROY. Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley are joining teams that already have bona fide leaders.

Mayo, on the other hand, is joining a Grizzlies team searching for an identity. Unlike Rose and Beasley, he will be counted on to score. Don’t be surprised if Mayo’s averages compare to those of LeBron’s rookie season (20.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg and 5.9 apg).

Chapman:

Without much hesitation, Michael Beasley. He’s far and away the most complete scorer in this draft class, and perhaps the most NBA-ready. Greg Oden, O.J. Mayo, and Kevin Love should have excellent inaugural professional seasons as well, but Beasley is a step above the rest of the crop at this moment in time.

5. Which team(s) is due for a surprise season?

Whittenberg:

Call me biased, but I'm going with the Charlotte Bobcats to have a surprise season. With Larry Brown now coaching the team, this team will be a more defensive-minded one. They also get Adam Morrison back in the lineup, who missed all of last season.

The Bobacts were competitive under Sam Vincent last season, but they didn't really buy into his system. Brown is all about defense, so their offense may not be as free as it was last season.

They may not make the playoffs, but they have the chance to surprise the way the Portland Trailblazers did last season.

The Los Angeles Clippers would have to be my pick in the West.

Blasco:

How about Milwaukee? With Scott Skiles in place, the Bucks should be coerced into playing acceptable, hard-nosed defense. Richard Jefferson gives the team its first creative playmaker in ages, and the roster has a number of talented scorers.

Andrew Bogut is an adequate post player, while Luke Ridnour is set to rebound from a disastrous 2007. They should challenge the other Eastern Conference mediocrities hard for a playoff berth.

Ungvari:

I think the Clippers will surprise a lot of people this year. I really do. I think the additions of B-Diddy, Marcus Camby, Ricky Davis, Jason Hart, Steve Novak, Eric Gordon and DeAndre Jordan more than made up for the losses of Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, Brevin Knight, Shaun Livingston, and Quinton Ross.

If the Clippers can win at least 18 or their 30 games against the Eastern Conference, then all they'd have to do is win 23 of their 52 games against the West to finish .500. I don’t think the Clippers will make the playoffs, but I do think they will surprise a lot of teams.

In the Eastern Conference, I think the Bucks could sneak into the playoffs if they can get their act together quickly. New GM John Hammond did a great job this summer in re-shaping the roster given the horrible situation he inherited from his predecessor, Larry Harris. Second-round pick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute could turn out to be the steal of the draft.

Chapman:

The sexy pick is the Portland Trail Blazers, who have added super-promising rookies Greg Oden, Jerryd Bayless, and Rudy Fernandez to a .500 ball club. This team continues to impress with its poise, work ethic, and selflessness, and is led by one of the league’s best coaches in Nate McMillan. As long as the big fella’ from Indianapolis can stay healthy, this team may be ready to make the jump into the postseason.

6. Which team will take a step back this season?

Whittenberg:

As mentioned above, the Nuggets will take a big step back with out Camby. With emergence of Portland, Denver will be left out of the playoffs this season. 

But my pick is the Golden State Warriors. They will take a huge step back with the loss of Davis, Ellis, and even Mickael Pietrus. Don't be surprised if Golden State is in the lottery during the summer.

Blasco:

Washington is looking like its doors are about to fall off. With Gilbert Arenas, the team breaks off its offense too easily, and becomes centered around Arenas launching difficult jumpers. Without him, the offense is more precise, but the team lacks the creative scorer needed to beat good defenses.

Antawn Jamison isn’t physical enough to carry a team, while Caron Butler doesn’t have the handle to be Mr. Everything. With Brendan Haywood out for the year, the team has no muscle in the middle, and with Gilbert Arenas out until December, the Wizards will have to get used to playing as two different teams. They’re my pick to drop out of the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Ungvari:

I think this is the year that the Pistons’ streak of six consecutive appearances in the Eastern Conference Finals comes to an end. I think they’re still a top-four team in the conference, but I think the Celtics, Magic and Cavs will finish higher in the standings.

I think they’re bored. I also think that Michael Curry wasn’t the right choice to replace Flip Saunders. I’ve never been a fan of veteran teams with young head coaches. Most of the time the inmates run the asylum. Don’t be surprised if Curry is replaced next summer.

Chapman:

Following their divorce with Marcus Camby, Denver ’s playoff days may be over for the time being. Although Camby is more of a help-side defender who thrives off of his length and high activity level—as opposed to the common misconception that he is a lockdown post defender—this greatly hurts the Nuggets on the defensive end of the floor. They no longer have an active roamer to bring that intimidation factor or change shots.

On the perimeter, Denver ’s defense is about as laughable as Allen Iverson’s past comments regarding practice. I’ll say it loud and clear—the 2009 Denver Nuggets have a chance to be one of the worst defensive teams of all time.

7. With a healthy Dwyane Wade returning, are the Miami Heat contenders in the East once again? Is he already an early MVP candidate after his performance in the Olympics?

Whittenberg:

Contenders? No, because they have some holes that need to be filled. A worthy point guard would be a start. But better? Yes. A lot has changed since the last time Wade was completely healthy.

Boston are now the beasts of the East, Philly will be a much better team this year and Toronto could be a potential sleeper this season with the acquisition of Jermaine O'Neal. But they will be improved after an embarrasing lottery season last year. If Miami are in playoff contention, then Wade will be an MVP candidate. But don't bet on him winning it.

Wade will be playing his first full season without Shaq since his rookie year. That's really what I'm intested in seeing.

Blasco:

Assuming Michael Beasley is the goods, the Heat have four healthy legitimate NBA players (Beasley, Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion, and Udonis Haslem), and a very mediocre cast of role players. While Wade, Marion, and Beasley could be talented enough to pull the Heat to a playoff berth, they’ll be hard-pressed to avoid being swept if they make it. Since Wade is such a spectacular athlete, he has to be on everyone’s short-list for potential MVP’s.

Ungvari:

I don’t think the Heat will be a contender, but they will be much improved. The only things I would be worried about if I was a Heat fan are rookie head coach Erik Spoelstra and the constant trade rumors involving Shawn Marion. If the team is any good, then Pat Riley will just fire Spoelstra and take over like he did with Stan Van Gundy.

I think the Heat will finish somewhere between the fifth seed and the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference. If Alonzo Mourning manages to come back from his knee injury, then you can put the Heat at the top of the list of teams you don’t want to play in the first round.

As for Wade’s MVP chances, it’s not going to happen. He will have a great year, but I can’t remember the last time the NBA had an MVP who didn’t finish with one of the league’s top-five records. I fully expect him to finish in the top-ten in voting, though.

Chapman:

Contenders in the East? No, not until they bring in a formidable starting point guard and/or bring in a center of the male gender to replace Mark Blount in the first unit. Miami should certainly be in the hunt for an Eastern Conference playoff seed in the six-to-eight range, but I’ll be damned if Blount and Chris Quinn are going to help a team claim status as a contender.

However, as long as he can manage to stay off of the IR list, Dwyane Wade should be “back” as his old electrifying self. If Miami makes the playoffs and “Flash” puts together a season resembling what he once produced, MVP candidacy is absolutely in his future.

8. Award Winners

Whittenberg:

Coach of the Year: Maurice Cheeks, Philadelphia

MVP: Chris Paul, New Orleans

Sixth Man of the Year: Lamar Odom, Los Angeles Lakers

Most Improved Player: Rajon Rondo, Boston

Blasco:

Coach of the Year—Nate McMillan.  When Portland bursts into the postseason with such a young team years ahead of schedule, McMillan will get the deserved accolades.

MVP—It’s nearly impossible to pick MVP’s because of the vague definitions there are for the award. But as always, I’ll try my best. An MVP should be able to enforce his skills against even the most skilled of opponents.

An MVP shouldn’t just be a player who plays at a high level, but one who has his team play at a high level because of him. An MVP should only play for a team that has matched or exceeded expectations, as MVPs don’t disappoint. MVPs should be able to dominate weaker teams because of their presence, and should be able to beat elite teams because of their tremendously talented and clutch play in close games. Numbers should not matter in determining an MVP. Players are great on basketball courts, not stat sheets.

Since Paul Pierce was routinely excellent for the Celtics last year whenever and however the Celtics needed him to shine, I’ll pick him as my repeat MVP.

Sixth Man of The Year—Rodney Stuckey.  He’s a stud backing up another stud, and he’ll rake up the points and the assists as the commander of Detroit’s second unit.

Most Improved Player—Nene Hillario.  If he can stay healthy, he’ll have every chance to shine as Denver’s only defender, and only passable post scorer.

Ungvari:

Coach of the Year – Rick Adelman, Houston

MVP – Chris Paul, New Orleans

Sixth Man of the Year – Lamar Odom, Los Angeles Lakers

Most Improved Player – Thaddeus Young, Philadelphia

Chapman:

Coach of the Year: Nate McMillan

MVP: LeBron James

Sixth Man of the Year: Leandro Barbosa

Most Improved Player: John Salmons

* If you wanted to add Defensive Player of the Year, I'm going with Ron Artest.

9. How will the Eastern Conference fare? Who wins the East?

Whittenberg:

Detroit's reign of six straight trips to the Eastern Conference Finals will come to an end this season. Cleveland and Boston will be the last two teams standing in the East this year, and Boston repeats as Eastern Conference Champions.

Blasco:

The Celtics are the clear class of the East. The Cavs still don’t have the athleticism, the Pistons take too many shortcuts expecting to simply flip the switch and turn it back on, and the Magic need Dwight Howard to improve his post offense and defensive recognition to be truly magical.

Philadelphia may surprise people and be the second to last team standing, but they don’t have the experience to compete with the Celtics.

Ungvari:

Celtics vs. Cavs.  Celtics in seven.

Chapman:

It somewhat depends on seeding, but I believe the final two teams standing in the East will be Cleveland and the defending champion Boston Celtics, with Boston claiming Eastern Conference dominance for the second consecutive year.

10. How will the Western Conference play out? Who wins the West?

Whittenberg:

I'm not quite ready to give San Antonio the boot yet. Once Manu Ginobli returns from injury, the Spurs will be a dangerous team, especially in the playoffs.

It will be a rematch of last season's Conference Finals between Los Angeles and San Antonio. But unlike last season, this series will go seven games. Lakers in seven, and eventually winning it all.

But of course, New Orleans or Houston could spoil this party.

Blasco:

There are too many good teams to make a prediction with any kind of certainty. Injuries, acquisitions, and matchups will determine how each team fares in the postseason. The Hornets’ physicality, athleticism, interior offense, and point guard make them the most complete and well-rounded team, with the Lakers offensive brilliance and defensive length coming in second.

Still, the Rockets and Spurs have legitimate title aspirations, while the Jazz, Mavs, and Suns can all reach the Conference Finals with the right breaks.

Ungvari:

Lakers vs. Hornets.  Lakers in six.

Chapman:

While it would be nice to see Houston make the jump and advance to the Conference Finals, they are far too risky of a pick, as history has shown.

With that said, look for the Lakers and Hornets to duke it out for the Western Conference crown, and Kobe Bryant to lead the purple and gold to their 12th Finals meeting with Boston.

Boston repeats.

Michael Whittenberg and Erick Blasco are the NBA Community Leaders for bleacherreport.com.